Takes graded
46–37
55% hit rate
Takes
410
across 15 episodes
Avg. gradeability
76%
Mostly checkable calls
Speaker attribution: average 96% confidence · 1 uncertain take that may belong to someone else.
Bill’s takes
Graded so far: 46–37 (55%)
Transcripts don’t label speakers, so each take has a speaker confidence score for who said it (hover it for the reasoning). Each take also has a gradeability score: 100% means it can be cleanly confirmed or refuted, and 0% means pure opinion. Click a tier to filter.
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Bears win at least 10 games.
Filling out the seven NFC playoff spots.
“it just seems like he's going to scotch tape and duct tape them to 10 games”
85%Win total checks from standings; "seems like" hedges it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 3–1, 2nd in the NFC North, the NFC 5 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Vikings make the playoffs.
Filling the seventh NFC playoff spot from Philly, Detroit and Minnesota.
“So I guess it would be Minnesota, but I don't feel good about Minnesota.”
75%Settles from final standings, but hedged with 'I guess' and 'I don't feel good'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 4–0, 1st in the NFC North, the NFC 1 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Packers miss the playoffs.
Explaining why the NFC North's two playoff teams would be Minnesota or Detroit.
“Because I think Green Bay is terrible, which we'll go into later.”
60%'Terrible' is graded here as missing the playoffs.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 4th in the NFC North (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Cowboys are the NFC's fourth-best team, behind the three NFC West teams.
“And then maybe your team is fourth just because of how you can move the ball.”
30%Hedged with 'maybe', and 'fourth-best' has no clear record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Vikings go about 13-4.
He adds that he can't wait to bet against them in round one.
“now they're probably going to go 13 and four”
85%Graded here as 13+ wins; "probably" hedges it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 4–0, 1st in the NFC North, the NFC 1 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Vikings lose their first playoff game.
“we will not be able to wait to bet against them in round one”
65%Their first playoff game settles it, but only if they make the playoffs.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Cardinals miss the playoffs.
Proposed as the week's cross-off; they ended up crossing off the Chargers instead.
“I think it's the Arizona Cardinals.”
100%Settles automatically from the final regular-season standings
How it’s graded: The Arizona Cardinals are not one of their conference’s 7 playoff teams when the 2026 regular season ends. Source: ESPN final regular-season standings (saved in data/standings.js). Settles: After the 2026 regular season ends (Week 18).
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Currently 1–3, 4th in the NFC West (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026Jim Harbaugh steps away from the Chargers.
“I could see him resigning”
55%Resignation would be public, but "could see" and no timeframe make it soft.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Chargers miss the playoffs.
Official cross-off of the week; Sal agreed.
“look, they're not making it”
100%Playoff field is black and white.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the AFC West (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026Nine wins is enough for the last NFC playoff spot.
“The NFC, it might be nine wins.”
70%The last NFC seed's record settles it; hedged with 'might'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026Drake Maye gets back to his form from last season.
“So I think they build him back.”
35%'Build him back' needs a proxy, such as Maye's passer rating for the rest of the season.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026Trevor Lawrence (10-1) or Dak Prescott (14-1) wins MVP.
Sal read Allen +230 and Purdy +450 for MVP.
“the guys I would bet Lawrence at 10 -1 or Prescott at 14 -1”
75%MVP winner is public, but it's two players and framed as value.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Cowboys are 6-3 after their next five games.
Next five: Tampa, at Green Bay, at Philly, Arizona, at Indy.
“That feels like six and three.”
100%Exact record after a fixed game is a clear yes/no in public standings.
How it’s graded: The Cowboys' record is exactly 6-3 after their 9th game of 2026, the at-Indianapolis game that closes this five-game stretch. Source: NFL.com or ESPN 2026 standings and Cowboys schedule results. Settles: After the Cowboys' 9th game (at Indianapolis), 2026.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Cowboys finish ahead of the Eagles in the NFC East.
Both teams were +130 to win the NFC East.
“And I don't understand how anybody could watch those two teams today and think they should have the same odds.”
100%Final division order is a public yes-or-no record, though no automatic rule covers head-to-head finish.
How it’s graded: The Cowboys finish above the Eagles in the final 2026 NFC East standings, with NFL tiebreakers deciding any tie in record. Source: NFL.com final 2026 regular-season NFC East standings. Settles: End of the 2026 NFL regular season.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Eagles are not a good team this season.
“And I just don't think they're good.”
45%'Not good' needs a proxy, such as the Eagles' final record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Jaguars are the AFC's best team.
“I would say that the team I probably feel the best about is Jacksonville.”
45%Needs a proxy like the AFC one seed for "best team".
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026Tyquan Thornton misses the rest of the season with his ankle injury.
“I don't think he's coming back”
90%Games missed are public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Chiefs sign Tyreek Hill.
Talking about how the Chiefs replace the injured Thornton.
“the Tyreek Hill stuff's already started you know which wouldn't be until November but they could fit back in”
60%A signing is easy to check, but 'could' and 'who knows' hedge it heavily.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Broncos win fewer than 10 games.
Denver's win total is 9.5 with juice on the under.
“people still feel like this team can win 10 games I don't know if I see it”
80%Win total checks from standings; "don't know if I see it" softens it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the AFC West (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026Sean Payton takes play-calling duties back.
“I do wonder if it's all leading toward he takes the play calling back”
55%Reporting would confirm a play-calling change, but 'I do wonder' is a soft hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026Kyle Shanahan wins Coach of the Year.
“Shanahan just give it to him now, this coach of the year”
100%Award winner is a single public announcement, a clear yes or no.
How it’s graded: Kyle Shanahan is named AP NFL Coach of the Year for the 2026 season. Source: AP NFL Honors announcement (NFL.com / ESPN). Settles: NFL Honors, February 2027.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Jets miss the playoffs.
“So that's it for the Jets being good, I think.”
55%'Being good' is graded here as making the playoffs.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 1–3, 3rd in the AFC East (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Packers and Buccaneers are both bad teams this season.
“But my big takeaway was both of these teams suck.”
40%'Suck' needs a proxy, such as each team's final record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Cowboys score at least 27 points against the Buccaneers.
Asked about the minimum the Cowboys score against the Bucs: '27?'
“Yeah, I think so.”
100%The official final score gives a clear yes or no; no automatic rule covers team points.
How it’s graded: The Cowboys score 27 or more points (official final, including overtime) in their next game against the Buccaneers after Oct 5, 2026. Source: Official NFL box score (NFL.com or ESPN). Settles: Final whistle of the next Cowboys-Buccaneers game.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026UCLA goes over its preseason win total.
Sal asked about Bill's preseason UCLA over.
“I'm going to win that”
80%Win total is public, but the line (6.5 or 7.5) is unclear.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026UCLA beats Oregon.
Oregon was an 11.5-point favorite.
“I think UCLA can win this game, especially with the bye.”
90%Game result settles it; "can win" hedges.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026Oregon's starting quarterback does not play against UCLA.
Asked whether Oregon's starting quarterback returns for UCLA.
“I don't think so”
80%Box score shows who started; the quarterback isn't named.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026UCLA beats Oregon and the game goes over the total.
UCLA moneyline plus the over paid +733.
“I do like UCLA and the over”
90%Box score settles it; the total wasn't stated on the show.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026Brock Bowers has a big game against the Patriots.
“he's going to be a nightmare for the Patriots”
80%Graded here as 75+ receiving yards ("big game" for a receiver).
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026Caleb Williams plays against the Packers.
“I feel like Caleb will be back for this game”
100%Whether he took a snap is a plain yes or no in the public box score.
How it’s graded: Caleb Williams takes at least one offensive snap in the Bears' next game vs. the Packers after 2026-10-05. Source: Official NFL box score / gamebook snap counts. Settles: Final whistle of the next 2026 Bears-Packers game.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Bears cover −2.5 at Green Bay.
Bears are 2.5-point favorites at Green Bay.
“I can guarantee you I'm taking the Bears for Ring of 107.”
100%Cover at the stated line is black and white.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Lions are not a good team this season.
“You know why I went too low? Because I don't think the Lions are good.”
40%'Not good' needs a proxy, such as the Lions' final record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Cardinals cover +4.5 against the Lions.
Lions are 4.5-point favorites in Arizona.
“I like the cards in that game.”
95%Cover is black and white; stated as a lean.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Browns beat the Jets.
“I think they could beat the Jets.”
75%Final score settles it; 'could' hedges it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The line flips and the Browns close as favorites over the Jets.
The Jets opened as 1.5-point favorites.
“I think that ends up being Brown's favorite in that game.”
95%ESPN closing line settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Chargers make a trade before their game against the Broncos.
“i'm sure there will be trades and maybe even a firing before we get to this”
80%Transactions are public; the deadline is the Broncos game.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026Joe Burrow throws five touchdowns against Miami.
“This has all the makings of a five -touchdown Joe Burrow game.”
100%Burrow's passing touchdown count in one game box score gives a clear yes or no.
How it’s graded: Joe Burrow throws 5 or more passing touchdowns in the Bengals' next game against the Dolphins after 2026-10-05. Source: Official NFL box score (NFL.com or ESPN game log). Settles: Final whistle of the next 2026 Bengals-Dolphins game.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Bengals cover a teased line against the Dolphins.
“I think I will.”
70%Assumes a standard 6-point teaser off −7.5, since the size wasn't stated.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026Jayden Daniels plays against the Giants.
“I factored in Daniels because I assume he's back next week.”
100%Whether he logged a snap is a plain yes or no in the box score.
How it’s graded: Jayden Daniels takes at least one offensive snap in Washington's game against the Giants the week after Oct 5, 2026. Source: Official NFL box score / play-by-play for Commanders vs. Giants. Settles: Final whistle of the Commanders-Giants game, week of Oct 12.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Falcons are a terrible team this season.
“I'm still gravitating toward the Falcons are terrible.”
40%'Terrible' needs a proxy, such as the Falcons' final record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Aces win the WNBA title.
“I bet on the Aces to win the title after round one”
100%Title winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The NFC North finishes Bears, Vikings, Lions, Packers.
House's exact-order bet: Bears, Vikings, Lions, Packers at 9-1.
“I think that's the right order.”
100%Final division order is in the standings.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Browns don't finish as the AFC's 1 or 2 seed.
“I don't think it's going to be a one seed or a two seed”
85%Final AFC seeding settles it, but no rule covers 'not a top-two seed', so it's graded by hand.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Steelers finish with 8 or 9 wins.
“They're going to be in that 8 -9, 9 -8, somewhere around there.”
85%Final standings settle it; graded on the stated 8–9 win range.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the AFC North (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Aces win the WNBA title.
“they're the best team and they're probably going to win the”
90%The champion is public record; 'probably' is a hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The WNBA Finals are Aces vs. Liberty.
“gonna get aces liberty again That's what's going to happen”
95%The finals matchup is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026Jim Harbaugh stays with the Chargers despite the 0–3 start
“i think jim harbaugh is sticking around”
75%Checkable, but no timeframe given; grade at season’s end
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026Nico Collins plays for the Texans against the Cowboys.
“I assume he's back he's practiced today we won't know officially until tomorrow”
90%The box score shows whether he played; 'I assume' is a slight hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Nico Collins is in the box score
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026Joey Porter Jr. plays for the Cowboys against the Texans.
“they traded for joey porter this week and might actually throw him out there”
80%Settled by whether he plays, but hedged with 'might'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Joey Porter Jr. isn’t in the box score; confirm by hand
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Texans cover −3 against the Cowboys.
Ringer 107, Week 4 pick.
“So anyway, Texans minus three is my first one.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Lost by 4
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Texans beat the Cowboys.
Arguing the Texans won't start 0–4.
“with the amount of talent that they have And just because Nico Collins got hurt for two games, I can't buy it”
95%A moneyline lean on top of his spread pick, settled by the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 4
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Rams beat the Eagles.
“Rams would be 1 -3 if they lost this game. That seems inconceivable.”
95%A moneyline lean on top of his spread pick, settled by the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 4
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Eagles aren’t a good team this season
“And I don't think the Eagles are good.”
40%“Not good” needs a stand-in, e.g. a losing record or missing the playoffs
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Rams line moves to −3.5 by kickoff.
“I think that could bump up to Rams three and a”
80%ESPN closing line settles it, but he hedged it on Puka playing.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Closed LAR -4.5
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Rams cover −3 against the Eagles.
Ringer 107, Week 4 pick.
“So that was my second pick. Rams minus three.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Won by 4
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026Zach Charbonnet doesn't play against the Chargers.
“Charbonnet is not coming back yet.”
95%The box score shows whether he played.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Zach Charbonnet isn’t in the box score
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Seahawks beat the Chargers.
“I don't see it.”
95%A moneyline lean behind his teaser leg, settled by the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 7
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 20266-point teaser: Seahawks −1 against the Chargers and Bills −1 against the Patriots.
Ringer 107, Week 4, his 6-point teaser.
“And sadly, I am teasing them with the Buffalo Bills down to minus one against the New England Patriots.”
100%Settles from the final scores; every leg has to cover its teased line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: 2-leg teaser
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026Patriots lose to Buffalo
“I think they're supposed to lose this game and I think they will”
100%Straight-up result
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Won by 3
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026Bucs–Packers is close; Tampa covers and might win
“I am going to take the Tampa Bay Bucks yet again, plus three and a half against Green Bay.”
95%Covering +3.5 is checkable; “maybe even win” is a hedge
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Lost by 3
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Buccaneers cover +3.5 against the Packers.
Ringer 107, Week 4 pick.
“going to take the Tampa Bay Bucks yet”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Lost by 3
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Buccaneers beat the Packers outright.
“I think Tampa can cover this and maybe even win”
75%Settled by the final score, but 'maybe' is a hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 3
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Falcons aren't a good team this season.
“And I don't think the Falcons are good.”
45%'Good' needs a proxy such as record or playoffs.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Raiders are a legitimately good team this season.
“I do think this Raiders thing is pretty real, though.”
45%'Pretty real' needs a proxy such as a winning record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Chiefs beat the Raiders in Las Vegas.
“Let's lay the smack down in Vegas.”
85%The final score settles it, but it's framed as the Chiefs' mindset rather than a pick.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 3
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026Lions–Panthers goes over 41.5 points.
A teaser idea he looked at but didn't play.
“being able to tease that down to 41 and a half on a Monday night”
75%Final score settles it, but this was a teaser leg he considered rather than bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: 58 total points
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Browns miss the playoffs
Answering the Netflix poll “Will the Browns make the playoffs?” (60% said no), Bill and House both side with no.
“I agree with no.”
100%The Browns make or miss the playoffs
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Grizzlies win more than 29.5 games.
Memphis's win total is 29.5.
“It's too low.”
95%Final win total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026Memphis goes over 29.5 wins
“There's no tanking this year.”
100%Settles automatically from the final regular-season standings
How it’s graded: The Memphis Grizzlies finish the 2026 regular season with 30 or more wins. Source: ESPN final regular-season standings (saved in data/standings.js). Settles: After the 2026 regular season ends (Week 18).
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: No standings saved yet (run npm run snapshot)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Raptors go over their win total.
“My other one was Toronto, but I got to do the mental gymnastics with them more.”
55%The win total wasn't stated and the lean is hedged.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026Luka Dončić averages 36+ points per game.
Luka to average 36+ points per game was +340.
“so 36 doesn't feel like a stretch”
85%Season scoring average settles it, but it's a lean at +340 rather than a firm call.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026Walker Kessler doesn't reach 2,000 minutes for the Lakers.
“He'd have to play 20 to 2300 minutes for good luck.”
60%Minutes played settle it, but the call is sarcasm rather than a stated number.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026Luka Dončić has a huge statistical season and is the real MVP front-runner.
“I personally think Luka should be the favorite because he's number one and he's going to have a giant stat year.”
35%'Giant stat year' is vague, and 'should be favorite' is opinion.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Celtics bring Payton Pritchard off the bench.
“I think they're going to bring him off the bench”
70%Starts vs. bench appearances are a public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026Payton Pritchard contends for Sixth Man of the Year.
“Pritchard's 20 -1 would be the other one I would look at for that”
50%A value lean, not a firm pick to win.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026Jamahl Mosley's replacement Sean Sweeney contends for Coach of the Year with the Magic.
“Jumped out to me.”
45%A soft value lean; 'contends' needs a proxy such as vote share.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Cowboys aren't a contender this season, even with Porter.
“I don't think they have it regardless.”
40%'Have it' is vague; playoffs or record would stand in.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Packers are a bad team this season.
“The Packers are terrible.”
50%'Terrible' needs a proxy such as a losing record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Jets hold three top-10 picks in the 2027 draft.
“They might have three of the top 10, you know, in this draft that has a bunch of quarterbacks.”
70%The draft order settles it; hedged with 'might'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Raiders make the playoffs if they play well against the Chiefs.
“I think they could be a playoff”
40%Conditional on a strong showing against the Chiefs, and 'could' is a hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026Sonny Gray leaves the Red Sox this offseason.
“leave now because they yanked him”
80%Gray's offseason status settles it; hedged with 'probably'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Yankees make the World Series
“the Yankees have a legitimate chance to make the World Series”
60%Reaching the World Series is a matter of record, but “legitimate chance” hedges it
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026Celtics win fewer games than last year
“And Detroit will be way worse.”
100%Final win total under 56
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Raptors are one of the East's better teams.
“I think Toronto is going to be really good.”
55%A record or seed has to stand in for 'really good'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Cavaliers win about as many games as last season.
“Cleveland will be around the same.”
60%Comparable to last season's win total, but 'around the same' has no set range.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Celtics are a good team this season.
“going to be good.”
50%'Good' needs a proxy such as record or seed.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Patriots win at least one of their road games at Chicago and Miami.
“at Chicago at Miami they'll at least split those”
90%The two game results settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Dolphins finish with the worst record in the NFL.
“Miami is the worst team in the league”
60%Final standings could settle it, though it's phrased as a present-tense opinion.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Chargers are a bad team this season.
“but the Chargers are terrible.”
50%'Terrible' needs a proxy such as a losing record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 29, 2026The Red Sox lose the wild-card series to the Yankees.
After the Red Sox lost Game 1 of the wild-card series at Yankee Stadium.
“I do not have high hopes for the rest of this”
70%The series result settles it, but 'not high hopes' is a hedge rather than a firm call.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 29, 2026Jalen Duren gets traded out of Detroit
“so it makes me think he's going to get traded”
65%A trade is checkable, but there’s no deadline on it
Who said it (90%): Bill’s Shawn Kemp history riff, right after Goldsberry’s cap argument
Result: Duren signed Detroit’s 5-year, $200M offer two days later (Hello Cleveland, 00:49:13). A trade could still follow.
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 29, 2026Detroit doesn't trade Duren to Washington for Anthony Davis.
On the floated Duren-for-Anthony Davis deal with Washington.
“not going to work because it floated around yesterday with AD”
80%Public record settles whether the deal happens.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 29, 2026The Pistons won’t win 60 games again
“Well, they're not winning that this year.”
100%Pistons’ final win total against last year’s 60
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 29, 2026The Pistons win fewer than 60 games.
Agreeing with Goldsberry that Detroit won't repeat last season's 60 wins.
“I didn't think they had any chance of winning 60”
95%The Pistons' final win total settles it, though he states it as a doubt rather than a firm number.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 29, 2026The NBA keeps enforcing illegal screens all season.
“they'll follow through on the illegal screens”
35%No clear measure of 'follow through' beyond foul-call trends.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 29, 2026A slimmer Joel Embiid stays healthier this season.
“Being skinnier will help him not get injured is my expert take.”
40%Games played would have to stand in for 'not get injured'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 29, 2026Tim Connolly and Tyronn Lue both leave their teams for jobs elsewhere.
“think they both will.”
60%Public record settles it, but there is no timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 29, 2026Zion Williamson never becomes a top-25 player.
“I don't think it's going to happen.”
40%A top-25 ranking needs a proxy, and there is no timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 29, 2026The Nuggets aren't the league's best team, even when healthy.
“even when they have all their guys, they're not the best in the league”
50%Not winning the title would have to stand in for 'best in the league'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 29, 2026LaMelo Ball plays fewer than 2,200 minutes this season.
“2200 minutes would be a miracle”
90%LaMelo's season minutes total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 29, 2026Nikola Jokic re-signs with the Nuggets next year.
Jokic said he'll sign next year if Denver wants him.
“I believe that.”
85%Public record settles it, though it depends on Denver wanting him.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 29, 2026The Raptors win 50 or more games.
Toronto's Vegas win total was about 46 or 47.
“But to me, that's a 50 -win team.”
100%Final standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 29, 2026The Las Vegas expansion fee comes in around $9.5 billion.
“It's going to be nine and a half.”
85%The announced fee settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 29, 2026The NBA expands to 31 teams first, with Seattle staggered later.
“So they're going to go 31 teams.”
75%League announcements settle it, with no timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 29, 2026Minnesota moves to the East with expansion
“Yeah, Minnesota moves to the East.”
80%The East-or-West placement is a clear yes or no, but expansion may not be announced by the deadline, so the take could void.
How it’s graded: When the NBA officially announces conference alignment for its next expansion, the Timberwolves are placed in the Eastern Conference; void if no announcement by 2028-12-31. Source: NBA.com official expansion/realignment announcement. Settles: NBA realignment announcement, or void 2028-12-31.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 29, 2026The Vegas expansion team's nickname is bad.
“I'm just assuming it's going to be terrible”
15%Pure taste.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 29, 2026Mike Tomlin doesn't return to coaching next season.
“It makes me think he doesn't want to coach.”
55%Inferred from a vibe, with no firm timeframe; checkable by whether he takes a job.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 29, 2026Arch Manning isn't a top-three NFL draft pick.
“But I personally don't see it as a top three pick.”
75%Draft position settles it once he declares.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 29, 2026Pat McAfee appears on Inside the NBA this season.
On Inside the NBA's first season at ESPN.
“It'll be different this year when McAfee's on the show.”
70%McAfee's appearances on Inside the NBA are checkable, but how often he has to appear isn't defined.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 29, 2026Stephen A. Smith cuts back from doing three shows a day.
“I don't think that's sustainable.”
25%No clear test for 'sustainable'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 29, 2026MLB's audience keeps growing this decade, barring a lockout.
“I think the baseball audience is really going to keep growing this decade, assuming they don't have a lockout.”
55%Ratings would have to stand in for 'audience', and it's conditional on no lockout.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 29, 2026Charles Barkley returns to TV after this season.
Wrapping up after Curtis predicted Barkley won't really retire.
“Maybe a lot of stuff will come back, including Charles Barkley.”
65%Barkley's return is public record, but 'maybe' and the joking tone weaken the call.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Rams recover from their 1–2 start.
“I'm not that worried about them.”
30%A vibe with no timeframe or threshold for what 'worried' means.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026At least six AFC teams win 10 or more games.
Arguing a Rams loss mattered less than a Broncos loss would have.
“it feels like at least six teams that are going to be in double figures for wins”
75%Countable from final standings, but 'feels like' hedges it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Jaguars finish with a bottom-10-to-12 defense in the league.
“I'm going to say it's in the bottom 10 to 12 defenses in the league.”
60%Season defensive rankings can check it, but no metric is named.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Patriots win at least 10 games.
Restating and regretting his preseason pick of 10 Patriots wins.
“I'm mad at myself for going”
90%Win total settles from the final standings; he regrets the pick but hasn't withdrawn it.
Who said it (75%): Unlabeled line, but it continues Bill's complaint about his own Patriots having no edge rushers.
Result: Currently 2–2, 2nd in the AFC East, the AFC 7 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Raiders miss the playoffs.
Citing a brutal nine-game stretch for the 3–0 Raiders.
“I would bet the no playoffs for them”
95%Settles from final standings.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 3–1, 2nd in the AFC West, the AFC 6 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The NFC South winner finishes 7–10.
Restated preseason call; asked to drop it to 6–11, Sal said 'Maybe soon.'
“You predicted that they would go four 7 -10 teams and 7 -10 with the division”
90%The division winner's record settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026Harbaugh gets linked to college jobs soon
“We'll hear his name being thrown around, I think, for college pretty”
35%“Name thrown around” is rumor, not an outcome
Who said it (90%): Bill references his Thursday conversation with Pelissero
Result: Five days later Bill learns Harbaugh can’t return to college because of NCAA penalties and says he thinks Harbaugh is sticking around (Hello Cleveland, 00:22:08).
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026Jim Harbaugh leaves the Chargers to coach in college (USC) next season.
Bill expects Harbaugh to bail on the 0–3 Chargers for college.
“he's got a million outs and he'll be coaching USC next year”
70%A coaching move is public record, but 'or something' and the joke tone hedge it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Seahawks beat the Chargers.
“And I don't think they're losing two games in a row.”
95%Settles from the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 7
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Chargers miss the playoffs.
After hearing the Chargers' odds (about −700 to miss).
“might do that.”
85%Settles from standings; 'might' makes it a lean, not a bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the AFC West (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Cardinals are a dangerous team this season.
“I think that's a frisky team.”
35%'Frisky' and 'watch out team' are vibes with no record to check.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The 0–3 Texans get to 5–5
“I feel like they're going to be five and five by the”
85%The Texans’ record after their next seven games
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Steelers are 6–2 after their next five games.
“They might be like six and two”
75%The record after eight games is checkable, but 'might be like' hedges it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Browns beat the Steelers (moneyline bet).
Thursday night, Steelers at Browns.
“I'm betting the Browns money line”
100%Moneyline bet; settles from the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 3
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Bills–Patriots line closes at Bills −7.
The posted line was Bills −6.5.
“It probably ends at seven, right?”
85%ESPN closing line settles it; 'probably' hedges.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Closed BUF -7
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Bengals–Jaguars line drops to Bengals −1.5 by Sunday.
Guess the Lines; the line was Bengals −2.5.
“that moves to minus one and a half”
70%The closing line settles it, but 'maybe' hedges it and no automatic rule covers a line dropping.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Bengals–Jaguars line doesn't reach Bengals −3.
The line was Bengals −2.5.
“I don't think it gets to three that's for sure”
90%The closing line settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The NFC East winner finishes 10–7.
“it does feel like 10 -7 is going to take the NFC East”
85%The division winner's record settles it; 'feel like' hedges.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026If Nico Collins plays, the Texans–Cowboys line moves to Texans −3.
The line was Texans −2.5.
“I think if Nico plays, that goes to three.”
80%The closing line settles it, but only if Nico Collins plays.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Raiders are a live underdog against the Chiefs.
“Raiders are a live dog in that game.”
50%'Live dog' implies a real shot to win, which is close to unfalsifiable.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Packers and Chargers finish among the eight or nine worst teams.
“I don't see how they're not two of the eight or nine worst teams from watching all the teams and all the games.”
70%Final records (bottom nine) serve as the proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Cardinals cover +1.5 against the Giants.
Leaning toward this as his Ringer 107 pick; the line is Giants −1.5.
“I like the cards.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 12
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026Tetairoa McMillan has a big receiving game against the Lions.
“he's going to have a lot more fun this week against the Detroit Lions”
75%Graded here as 75+ receiving yards ('big game').
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Tetairoa McMillan: 192 receiving yards
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Yankees beat the Red Sox in the Wild Card series.
He called Yankees −170 fair.
“I'd be really surprised.”
90%The series result settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Astros beat the White Sox in the Wild Card series.
“I'd be really surprised if they just beat”
90%The series result settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026UCLA wins at least seven games.
Restated preseason win-total bet.
“I had them for seven wins”
90%Final record settles it; the exact threshold is approximate.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026UCLA makes the College Football Playoff.
Futures bet at 22–1.
“I have them make the playoffs at 22 to one”
100%The College Football Playoff field is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The 49ers cover −2.5 against the Broncos.
Sign-off lean; the line was 49ers −2.5.
“maybe, laying the points”
90%Settles from the final score against the line; 'maybe' hedges.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 10
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 24, 2026Washington is going to be bad
“They're going to be bad.”
55%“Bad” needs a stand-in, e.g. a losing record
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 24, 2026Miami finishes with the NFL’s worst record
“The Miami Dolphins have the worst record in football.”
100%League-worst record at season’s end
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 24, 2026Case Keenum starts at quarterback for the Bears this week against the Eagles.
“they're going to have Case Keenum this week, probably”
85%The Bears' starter is public record, but the call is hedged with "probably".
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 24, 2026The Ravens cover −3.5 against the Cowboys.
He stays off the Brazil game but would side with House.
“But if I did do it, I would have the Ravens.”
90%Final score against the line settles it; it's a lean, not a bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 3
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 24, 2026The Jaguars–Patriots line moves from −2.5 to at least Jaguars −3 by kickoff.
“I think that would be three or three and a half by Sunday.”
85%ESPN closing line settles it; graded as Jaguars −3 or more.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Closed JAX -3
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 24, 2026A.J. Brown doesn't return until around November.
“AJ's gone probably till November.”
75%Return date is public, but "probably" and "till November" are loose.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 24, 2026The Jaguars cover −2.5 against the Patriots.
Ringer 107, Week 3 pick.
“I don't know what happened to them in the second half in Denver, but I think that Jags offense is really good.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Won by 29
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 24, 2026The Patriots make a late-season run after a middling start.
“because I think they can still make a run”
45%"Make a run" needs a proxy, such as a winning record or playoff spot after November.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 24, 2026The Jaguars beat the Patriots.
“I'd be really surprised if the Pats won this game.”
95%Straight-up result settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 29
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 24, 2026Todd Bowles is fired after this game if the Bucs lose.
“Todd Bowles will probably get fired after this game if they lose.”
70%Conditional on a loss and hedged with "probably"; firing is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Condition met (Lost by 7); grade the rest by hand
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 24, 2026Baker Mayfield plays himself out of the league.
“He's going to play himself out of the league.”
30%No timeframe; hard to say what counts as playing himself out.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 24, 2026If the Bucs lose to the Vikings, they finish around 4–13.
“And if the Bucs can't win this game, they're going to go like 4 -13.”
70%Conditional on a loss; "like 4–13" is approximate, final record settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 24, 2026The Buccaneers cover +1.5 against the Vikings.
Ringer 107, Week 3 pick.
“I don't know if that's going to happen here, but I mean, if you can't be Kyler Murray in the fucking Tampa heat and an offense that can't run the ball and.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Lost by 7
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 24, 2026The Titans have a losing season under Saleh and Daboll.
Comparing the pairing of Saleh and Daboll to washed-up actors teamed up in a streaming movie.
“They're not successful.”
50%"Not successful" is graded here as a losing record this season.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 24, 20266-point teaser: Seahawks −1.5 against the Commanders and Bengals–Steelers under 48.5.
Ringer 107, Week 3, his 6-point teaser.
“the only thing I knew was that Seahawks Washington was going to be one of my legs.”
100%Settles from the final scores; every leg has to cover its teased line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: 2-leg teaser
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 24, 2026The Seahawks go on a big winning run this season.
“I think they go on a bender this year”
40%"Bender" needs a proxy like a long win streak.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 24, 2026The Seahawks beat the Commanders.
Moneyline lean behind his Seahawks −1.5 teaser leg.
“I can't imagine Mariota is going to beat the Seahawks.”
95%Straight-up result settles from the box score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 2
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 24, 2026The Texans cover −1.5 against the Colts.
Ringer 107, Week 3 pick.
“Houston Texans.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Lost by 2
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 22, 2026The Knicks have about two more years as a title contender.
Asked how long the Knicks' window lasts after the title.
“Two years as a contender?”
30%No clear test for 'contender'; deep playoff runs over the next two seasons could stand in for it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 22, 2026The Knicks win the Eastern Conference again.
“they are easily my bet my life team in the east”
85%Conference champion is a public record, but he hedges with 'unless they have injuries'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 22, 2026Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges appear together on Brunson's SNL episode.
Jalen Brunson hosting Saturday Night Live.
“Hart and Bridges together”
80%Checkable by watching the episode; 'together' is a little loose.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 22, 2026The Packers beat the Falcons.
During a FanDuel 'early win' ad for Thursday's Falcons–Packers game: "Just bet the money line."
“I would do this with the Packers.”
90%The game result settles it; it's a lean during an ad read.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 22, 2026The Hornets and the Hawks both miss the playoffs.
Agreeing with Lowe's first two teams to miss.
“So we have the same first two.”
90%Playoff field is a public record; the call is only implied by 'same first two'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 22, 2026The Pistons don't win a title while paying Jalen Duren over $40 million a year.
Arguing the Pistons should sign-and-trade Jalen Duren rather than pay him over $40M a year.
“you're not winning the title with that”
55%Conditional on a $40M+ Duren deal and has no clear timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 22, 2026Jalen Duren's new Pistons deal totals between $195M and $200M.
“He'll be between 195 and 200.”
85%Contract total is public; reported figures may vary slightly.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 22, 2026Anthony Davis doesn't sign an extension with the Wizards.
Reacting to news that Anthony Davis and the Wizards delayed extension talks.
“something can be delayed that had no chance of happening”
70%An extension is public record, but no deadline is given.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 22, 2026The Heat don't win the title.
Criticizing the Heat for paying mid-tier contracts.
“you're not winning the title”
90%The champion is public record; it's a thrown-in aside rather than a stated pick.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 22, 2026The 76ers' projected starting five plays together in fewer than 22.5 games.
Lowe's over/under of 22.5 games for Philly's projected starting five.
“Yeah, it's under.”
85%Lineup data settles it, but the 'projected starting five' needs defining.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 22, 2026The Pacers make the playoffs.
“To me, they're a playoff team.”
95%Playoff field is a public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 22, 2026The Raptors don't win the East.
Toronto has the fourth-best odds to win the East (+850).
“And I just think it's putting a lot of stock in Kawhi”
50%Implied fade of the Raptors' odds to win the East; not stated as a clear outcome.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 22, 2026UCLA's Serbian 17-year-old becomes Zach Lowe's favorite player within five years.
“This is going to be your favorite player five years from now.”
10%Lowe's taste five years out; no record to check.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 22, 2026The Heat miss the playoffs.
“I would lean toward Miami because I don't trust Giannis to play 70 games”
90%Playoff field is a public record; framed as a lean.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 22, 2026Giannis Antetokounmpo plays fewer than 70 games.
Explaining why he leans toward the Heat as the third East team to miss the playoffs.
“I don't trust Giannis to play 70 games”
85%Giannis's games played is a box-score count, but 'don't trust' is a soft hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 22, 2026The Cavaliers win at least 45 games.
“Cleveland not winning 45 games would be shocking.”
95%Win total is in the standings; graded here as 45+ wins.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 22, 2026LeBron James plays this season with a chip on his shoulder.
“And then LeBron, I think, is going to have a huge FU on his shoulder this year.”
10%A motivation claim with no record to check.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 22, 2026Publishers fly authors to LA to appear on the Jeselnik Book Club.
“they're gonna fly out the same way they would fly out to do kimwell's show”
25%Conditional on the pod growing, with no clear threshold.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Chargers are the AFC's No. 7 seed.
Restated preseason pick that he now regrets.
“I had the chargers in that seven seed before the year”
100%The final playoff seeding settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the AFC West (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Raiders miss the playoffs.
Going through the 2–0 teams; the Raiders were +215 to make the playoffs.
“So if we have to say at the end of the year which of those teams aren't going to be in there, we'll cross off Vegas.”
95%Final standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 3–1, 2nd in the AFC West, the AFC 6 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Bills and Seahawks make the playoffs.
Going through which 2–0 teams make the playoffs.
“Buffalo, Seattle, sure.”
90%Standings settle it, but this is a brief 'sure' covering two teams.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Bengals make the playoffs.
Asked which 2–0 teams won't be in the playoffs (Bengals −460 to make it).
“Cincy, it's starting to look like it's definitely their year plus a great schedule coming.”
75%Graded as a playoff berth; 'definitely their year' is vaguer than that.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 4th in the AFC North (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Eagles are the 2–0 team likeliest to miss the playoffs
“Philly would be the one I would worry”
40%Only a worry; graded as the Eagles missing the playoffs
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The 49ers make the playoffs.
Going through which 2–0 teams make the playoffs.
“San Francisco, unless they have a million injuries”
80%Standings settle it, but it's conditioned on injuries.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 4–0, 1st in the NFC West, the NFC 2 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Chargers are done (miss the playoffs)
“Because I think the Chargers are done.”
100%Settles automatically from the final regular-season standings
How it’s graded: The Los Angeles Chargers are not one of their conference’s 7 playoff teams when the 2026 regular season ends. Source: ESPN final regular-season standings (saved in data/standings.js). Settles: After the 2026 regular season ends (Week 18).
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the AFC West (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Broncos' offensive coordinator is the first coordinator fired this season.
Replying to Sal's pick of McDaniel as the first coordinator fired.
“I thought it was going to be the Denver OC was going to be the other one.”
70%A public record settles it, but he names it as the alternative candidate, not a firm pick.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026Jim Harbaugh doesn't finish the season as the Chargers' coach.
“And I do think there's a chance he doesn't make it through the season now.”
55%"There's a chance" is close to unfalsifiable, though a departure is checkable.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Steelers finish 10–7.
Restated preseason pick, said while admitting he may have overrated Pittsburgh.
“I had them 10 and 7, so now we know with Pittsburgh.”
100%The final record settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the AFC North (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Giants win the NFC East.
“the giants really could take that division if they can emulate what they did last week”
65%Division standings settle it, but "could" plus a condition hedges it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 3–1, 1st in the NFC East, the NFC 3 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Buccaneers win the NFC South.
Restated preseason futures on Tampa Bay.
“Not only did I bet them the last two weeks, I had futures on them.”
75%Read as an NFC South futures bet from Sal's remark; the exact future isn't named.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the NFC South (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The NFC South winner finishes 7–10.
Restating Sal's preseason call on the NFC South.
“7 -10 is going to win this division.”
90%The division winner's final record settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Dolphins miss the playoffs.
“No, I think Miami is the first cross -off.”
95%Final standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the AFC East (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Texans make the Super Bowl.
Restated preseason pick after the Texans fell to 0–2.
“Picked them to make the Super Bowl.”
95%Settled by who wins the AFC.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Bengals aren't a real contender.
“But I would not put them as a contender at this point.”
35%"Contender" needs a proxy and there's no timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Saints keep covering as big underdogs.
Said of Saints games where they're getting more than a touchdown.
“I almost think like they're an automatic pick at this point for me.”
40%Needs ATS records as big underdogs to stand in for 'automatic pick'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Saints win eight or fewer games.
“They're not going to go 9 -8 or 10 -7.”
95%Final win total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 1–2, 3rd in the NFC South (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026Jayden Daniels is out for the season.
“Daniels is the only one who seems like he might be gone gone”
70%Checkable if Daniels misses the rest of the season, but hedged with "seems like" and "might".
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026Washington misses the playoffs.
“Washington, 0 -2, the season's over.”
90%Final standings settle it; "season's over" is read as missing the playoffs.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 1–3, 4th in the NFC East (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026Washington contends for the No. 1 pick.
“They might be in the hunt for the number one pick.”
45%"In the hunt" is vague; it needs a proxy such as a top-three draft slot.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Cowboys win 11 or more games.
Restating his preseason Cowboys over 10.5 wins bet.
“So I'm not going to win my Cowboys over 10 and a half wins?”
100%Final win total settles the bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the NFC East (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026Marcus Mariota starts about eight games for Washington.
“it's another eight game starting stretch for Marcus Mariotta”
70%Mariota's starts count is public; "eight" is approximate.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Jaguars miss the playoffs.
Restated after Jacksonville's second-half collapse at Denver.
“the reason i didn't think they were a playoff team”
90%Standings settle it; this is a restated preseason view.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 3–1, 1st in the AFC South, the AFC 2 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Falcons finish as one of the three worst teams in the league.
Reacting to the Packers being only 6.5-point favorites over Atlanta.
“it's a Thursday night game against one of the three worst teams in the league”
45%Graded as a bottom-three final record; it's framed as a current assessment.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Bills cover a teased −1 against the Chargers.
Bills −7 against the Chargers.
“It's a 100 % chance I'm putting the Bills in the T's.”
85%Graded as Bills −7 teased six points to −1; the teaser size is assumed.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 8
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Cardinals cover +8.5 against the 49ers.
“I think the Cardinals can hang with them.”
80%"Hang with them" is graded here as covering +8.5.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 6
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Seahawks beat Washington (a teaser leg from −6.5).
Guess the Lines: Seahawks −6.5 at Washington, teased 6 points.
“a teaser game”
85%Teaser leg grades cleanly, but it's a 'probably' idea rather than a placed bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Chiefs beat the Dolphins (a teaser leg from −10.5).
Chiefs −10.5 at Miami, as a leg of a three-team, ten-point teaser.
“Three -team, ten -pointer with the Chiefs.”
85%Graded as Chiefs −10.5 teased ten points to −0.5.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 14
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026Puka Nacua doesn't play Monday night against the Giants.
About Monday night's Rams–Giants game.
“I don't think he is.”
95%The box score shows whether he played.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Puka Nacua isn’t in the box score
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026Caleb Williams doesn't play against the Eagles.
Week 3 Monday night preview, Eagles at Bears.
“No Caleb Williams.”
100%The box score shows whether he played.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Caleb Williams isn’t in the box score
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Eagles beat the Bears to go 3–0.
“Yeah, the Eagles can be 3 -0 with the flimsiest 3 -0 of all time.”
80%The final score settles it; "can be" hedges it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 20
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Eagles start 7–1
“They'll be like 7 -1.”
85%The Eagles’ record after eight games
Who said it (90%): Bill reading the Eagles’ schedule before his line guess
Result: Philadelphia lost at Chicago in Week 3 and to the Rams in Week 4 (24–20), so 2–2 rules out 7–1.
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026Puka Nacua is on injured reserve by the Rams' game against the Eagles.
“I'm sure Pucco will be on the IR by that point.”
85%IR transactions are public record; the timeframe is the Rams' Week 4 game at Philly.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026The Bills win the AFC.
Sizing up the AFC after Buffalo's 2–0 start.
“if you were betting on anyone, you'd bet on them”
70%AFC champion is a public record, but hedged with 'probably' and 'two weeks'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026Josh Allen has the best season of his career.
Bill says it feels like Allen is set for the best year of his career.
“it just feels like this is lining up for Josh”
45%'Best year of his career' needs a proxy such as MVP or career-high stats.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026Jahmyr Gibbs doesn't hold up under his current workload.
“I just don't see him holding up”
35%'Holding up' has no clear test; injury or a reduced workload would stand in.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026The NFC North winner finishes better than 9–8.
Asked himself, “Could 9–8 win the NFC North?”
“I don't think so.”
90%The division winner's record settles it from final standings.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026The Chargers miss the playoffs.
Reversing his preseason pick of the Chargers as a playoff team.
“I don't think that's a playoff team.”
100%Final playoff field settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the AFC West (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026The Chargers–Raiders line drops below Chargers −6.5 by kickoff.
“But I think it's going to keep dropping”
90%The closing line is checkable against the stated Chargers −6.5.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026The Dolphins go winless (0–17).
“they played Miami who might go 0 -17”
80%Final record settles it, but hedged with 'might'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026The Clippers miss the playoffs in each of the next three seasons.
From his letter asking out of his season tickets.
“Now we're looking at three more years of a non -playoff team with the weakest future in the NBA.”
80%Playoff appearances are public record, but it spans three seasons.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026The Browns' current stadium is torn down without ever hosting a playoff game.
“It might have a three -decade life and get knocked down without ever hosting a playoff game”
70%Clear outcome, but years away and hedged with 'might'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026The Texans cover −2.5 against the Bengals.
Ringer 107, Week 2 pick.
“But under three, I'm taking Houston minus two and a half.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Lost by 14
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026The Texans beat the Bengals by 3 or more.
“I think they went by three at least”
100%The final score settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 14
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026The Jets beat the Packers outright.
A moneyline lean on top of his Jets +3.5 pick.
“I actually like the money line too for the Jets.”
100%The final score settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 3
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026The Jets–Packers line moves below Jets +3.5 by Sunday.
“I think that line's going to go down”
90%The ESPN closing line versus +3.5 settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026The Jets cover +3.5 against the Packers.
Ringer 107, Week 2 pick.
“So I am going to take Jets plus three and a half.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Lost by 3
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026Jets–Packers goes under the total.
“I like the under in that game too”
80%The final score settles it, but no total was stated (heavy rain expected).
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026The Jets–Packers total moves down before kickoff.
“And the under will go down.”
85%Opening and closing totals are checkable; no number was given.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026Bo Nix plays poorly for the first month of the season.
“I think there's a chance he might just not be good for the first month of the season”
35%'Not good' needs a stat proxy and is hedged with 'a chance'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 20266-point teaser: Buccaneers −2.5 against the Browns and Jaguars +8.5 against the Broncos.
Ringer 107, Week 2, his 6-point teaser.
“And if he's going to beat my tease of bucks down to minus two and a half with Jags plus eight and a half, God bless him.”
100%Settles from the final scores; every leg has to cover its teased line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: 2-leg teaser
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026Deshaun Watson never starts another game after Week 2.
“I don't think we'll ever see him quarterback another team after this week”
80%Game logs settle it, but "another team" is loosely worded and it stays open all season.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026The Buccaneers win the NFC South.
“Tampa's still plus 150 for the NFC South, which to me seems like a steal”
75%The division winner is in the final standings; framed as value, not a firm call.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the NFC South (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026The Giants lose to the Rams.
“They probably lose to the Rams, right?”
100%A single final score gives a clear yes or no.
How it’s graded: The Giants lose to the Rams in their 2026 Week 2 game; a Giants win or a tie grades as wrong. Source: Official NFL final score (NFL.com or ESPN box score). Settles: Final whistle of the 2026 Week 2 Giants-Rams game.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Lost by 22
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026The Packers miss the playoffs.
Pitching a Chargers + Packers no-playoffs parlay.
“Like right now, I would say no”
95%Final playoff field settles it; hedged with "right now."
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 4th in the NFC North (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026The Patriots cover −4.5 against the Steelers.
Ringer 107, Week 2 pick.
“I'm taking the Patriots minus four and a half at home against the Steelers.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Won by 17
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026The Patriots beat the Steelers by 7 or more.
“And I just think they win by seven plus.”
100%The final score settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 17
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026Donald doesn't play for the Rams against the Giants.
“I don't even think we're going to see him.”
80%The box score settles it; hedged with 'I don't even think'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Aaron Donald is in the box score
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026The Panthers cover −2.5 against the Falcons.
Sunday-pick lean.
“I'm probably leaning toward the Panthers.”
60%Settles on the spread, but a soft lean he expects to talk himself out of.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 31
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026The Raiders cover +6.5 against the Chargers.
Sunday-pick lean; he wants the line at 7.
“I might be leaning toward the Raiders.”
55%Settles on the spread, but hedged and conditional on the line reaching 7.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 12
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026UCLA covers as the favorite against Purdue.
Bill is attending the game Saturday.
“lay some points with that one”
75%Covering settles on the spread, but no line was stated.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 15, 2026Keaton Wagler becomes a pretty good NBA player
“going to be pretty good.”
45%'Pretty good' needs a stat proxy and has no timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 15, 2026Zach LaVine plays really well in his contract year
“he might actually play really well this year because he's playing for one more deal”
35%'Really well' needs a stat proxy, and the call is hedged with 'might'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 15, 2026The Kings have a better season than the Clippers
Disagreeing with Mahoney, who said the Kings are definitively worse.
“I think I'd rather be the Kings.”
50%This is a talent preference; final records serve as the proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 15, 2026Julius Randle averages about 23 points and 10 rebounds
“He'll put up 23 and 10.”
85%Season averages settle it; a round number, so allow a little slack.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 15, 2026The Grizzlies are better than a typical bad young team
“Now Memphis, I actually think could be”
35%'Better than the typical bad young team' needs a win-total proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 15, 2026The 76ers are at least solid even if Embiid and LeBron miss time
“The floor is even fairly high”
30%A 'fairly high floor' is vague; the final record is only a rough proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 15, 2026The Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL
“So I have Miami 32nd.”
55%Read here as a worst-record call; it's framed as a power ranking.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 15, 2026The Browns don't host a playoff game this season or next
“Safe to say it won't this year or next year.”
90%Playoff schedules settle it; covers two seasons.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 15, 2026The Browns never host a playoff game in their current stadium before it closes after 2028
“And my money would be against it.”
90%Public record by the stadium's 2028 closing.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 15, 2026Deshaun Watson doesn't start for the Browns in Week 3
“I can't imagine they'll start him”
90%The Week 3 starter is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 15, 2026The Buccaneers are better and the Bengals worse than their Week 1 game showed
Naming Bengals-Bucs as a Week 1 'liar liar' candidate.
“I think Tampa's better than that game and Cincinnati's worse”
40%'Better' and 'worse' than one game need a proxy such as final records.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 15, 2026The Cardinals are a legitimately good team this season
“I think they're a little more for real.”
40%'For real' needs a proxy such as a winning record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 15, 2026The Chiefs are worse than their Week 1 win over Denver suggested
“I'm not sure the chiefs are as good as they looked in that game.”
35%Vague; needs a proxy for 'as good as they looked'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 15, 2026The Broncos' defense is much better than its Week 1 performance against the Chiefs
“I don't think Denver is going to have a game where they set the record for most missed tackles”
35%This is a vague claim about defensive improvement; missed-tackle stats are only a partial proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 15, 2026Dontayvion Wicks is the season's most added-and-dropped fantasy player
For the 'Taysom Hill Award' (most dropped and re-added fantasy player).
“I am voting for Don Tavian Wicks on the Eagles”
25%No official record of the most added-and-dropped player.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 15, 2026Dontayvion Wicks has another game with about 5 catches for 90 yards this season
Explaining why Wicks will bounce on and off waiver wires.
“I think then he'll have another five for 90.”
70%A game log shows any 5-catch, 90-yard game; there is no timeframe beyond the season.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 15, 2026The Giants win the NFC East
“I'm actually worried about them winning the division.”
60%Standings settle it, but it's framed as a worry rather than a firm pick.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 3–1, 1st in the NFC East, the NFC 3 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 15, 2026The Jets finish 7–10 or 8–9
“Jets will be seven and 10 or eight and nine.”
95%Final win total settles it; a two-result range.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 1–3, 3rd in the AFC East (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 15, 2026The Yankees and Red Sox meet in a best-of-three Wild Card Series
“they have the Red Sox in a best two of three”
90%The postseason bracket settles it; the seeding is not final yet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 15, 2026The Browns, Titans and Dolphins all finish among the five worst teams in the NFL
“I think it's a pretty safe bet Cleveland, Tennessee, Miami are three.”
85%Settled by final records; 'worst five' leaves some slack.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 15, 2026Arch Manning doesn't want to go to the team that drafts him
“this seems like the most likely candidate we've had in a while to not want to go to the team that drafts him”
35%Whether he refuses a team can only be judged from draft-day reporting, and the call is hedged.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 15, 2026The Brewers earn the NL's 1 seed
“they're going to get the one seed”
100%Final NL seeding settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: No standings saved yet (run npm run snapshot)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 15, 2026The Kroenkes are successful as Angels owners
“They'll certainly probably be successful with them.”
25%'Successful' has no timeframe or measure, and the call is hedged with 'probably'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 15, 2026Giancarlo Stanton doesn't return for the Yankees' playoff run
“doesn't seem like they're going to get Stanton back”
80%Playoff box scores show whether Stanton plays, but the call is hedged ('doesn't seem like').
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 15, 2026Cam Schlittler wins AL Cy Young
“he's going to clearly cruise to the Cy Young”
100%The award vote settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 15, 2026The Yankees start Schlittler, not Cole, in Game 1 of the playoffs
“It's not going to happen.”
85%The Game 1 starter is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 15, 2026The Yankees fall short of the World Series title despite a favorable setup
“I just have to bank on the one and only Aaron Boone and some history from the last 17 years screwed up”
65%Implied rather than stated; graded as the Yankees not winning the World Series.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026Jaxson Dart or Cam Skattebo doesn’t last the whole season
“didn't think dart or scadabo would last for”
55%Graded as: Dart or Skattebo suffers a season-ending injury or misses 4+ games
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Dart needed season-ending surgery (MCL, PCL and meniscus) after a knee injury against the Rams in Week 2.
- Graded by: Bleacher Report ↗ Giants’ Cam Skattebo Reacts to Jaxson Dart’s Season-Ending Knee Injury · Sep 24, 2026
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The Giants finish under their preseason win total.
Restating a preseason future; he didn't think Dart or Skattebo would last four months.
“the reason one of the many reasons we went under with them”
75%Season wins settle it, but the win-total number isn't stated here.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026Deshaun Watson loses the Browns' starting job within a week or two.
On wishing he had more money against Deshaun Watson.
“There's only like one or two weeks left for this.”
60%A benching is public record, but 'one or two weeks' is loose and only implied.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The Buccaneers are a better team than the Bengals this season.
After the Bengals beat Tampa despite the Bucs never punting.
“I think Tampa's a little better.”
30%"A little better" needs a proxy such as final records.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The Cardinals are a competitive team this season.
“I mean, the Cardinals aren't bad.”
40%"Not bad" needs a proxy such as a win total against their 3.5-win line.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The Cardinals start the season 0–5.
Restated from last week's futures draft, right after Arizona won Week 1.
“one of your favorite futures was the Cardinals would start at 0 -5”
100%The Cardinals' record after five games settles it, and the Week 1 win already busts it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026Brock Bowers plays in Week 2.
“they shaved his meniscus but he might be ready for week two”
75%The box score settles it, but 'might' hedges.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Brock Bowers isn’t in the box score; confirm by hand
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026Myles Garrett wins Defensive Player of the Year.
Regrettable futures; bet at +400, now crossed off after Garrett's injury.
“I have no chance at Miles Garrett, Defensive Player of the Year for plus 400.”
100%Award winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The Cowboys win more than 10.5 games.
Regrettable futures; bet at +500.
“I'm putting Dallas over 10 and a half wins plus 500 in the front of the store”
100%Final standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the NFC East (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026Justin Herbert throws for 4,500+ yards
“Herbert 4,500 plus yards 12 to 1.”
100%A fixed yardage threshold settled by official season stats is a clear yes or no.
How it’s graded: Justin Herbert records 4,500 or more passing yards in the 2026 NFL regular season. Source: Pro Football Reference or ESPN season passing stats. Settles: End of the 2026 NFL regular season.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026Caleb Williams throws for 4,000+ yards
“He'll get that by week three.”
100%Season passing yards are a public stat with a clear numeric threshold.
How it’s graded: Caleb Williams finishes the 2026 NFL regular season with 4,000 or more passing yards. Source: Pro Football Reference or ESPN season passing stats. Settles: End of the 2026 regular season.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The Rams miss the playoffs
“I could see them missing the playoffs.”
60%Playoffs are checkable, but “I could see” hedges it
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The Patriots have a solid season despite the Week 1 loss.
Asked whether any of his 10-plus-win teams that lost in Week 1 worry him.
“I think the Pats are going to be okay.”
40%"Okay" needs a proxy such as a winning record or a playoff spot.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The Rams finish under 11.5 wins.
“I wouldn't want to have to bet on the Rams having to go 12 -5.”
85%Standings settle it; framed as a lean, not a bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the NFC West, the NFC 7 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The Commanders and Falcons both win fewer than 8.5 games.
Bet at +112; he says there's no chance either team wins nine.
“I had Washington, Atlanta, under 8.5 wins for plus 112”
100%Final win totals settle both legs.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026Neither Washington nor Atlanta wins 9 games
“it's like, there's no chance either of those teams”
95%Both teams’ final win totals
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026Zay Flowers misses the Week 2 game against the Saints.
“Flowers actually looks like he's going to be out for a couple”
90%Week 2 box score settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Zay Flowers isn’t in the box score
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The Ravens earn the AFC's 1 seed.
“I had them as a possible one seed.”
70%Final seeding settles it; 'possible' hedges.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 3–1, 2nd in the AFC North, the AFC 5 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The Colts finish with the worst record in the AFC.
Bill recalling Sal's preseason Colts take.
“you thought they had a chance to be the worst team in the AFC”
55%Standings settle it, but 'had a chance' is a soft framing.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The Bears win the NFC North.
“They might be the best NFC North team even though they can't stop anybody.”
75%Division standings settle it; 'might' hedges.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 3–1, 2nd in the NFC North, the NFC 5 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The Lions' secondary struggles until injured players return.
“Their secondary is going to be really bad until they start getting guys back”
40%"Really bad" needs a proxy such as passing yards allowed, and the timeframe is open-ended.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The Commanders are bad this season.
“Washington's going to be bad”
50%'Bad' needs a record proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026Malik Willis throws an interception in most games this season.
“that's a good bet every week is a Willis interception”
55%Weekly game logs settle it, but "every week" has no clear threshold.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026Josh Allen has a big game against the Lions.
Guess the Lines, Bills at Lions on Thursday night.
“this should be a really nice Josh Allen game”
50%"Really nice game" has no set threshold for a quarterback, so it needs a box-score proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The Bengals force fewer than four turnovers against the Texans.
“I don't think they'll be getting four turnovers again.”
90%The box score shows the turnovers forced.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026Kyler Murray doesn't play against the Bears in Week 2.
“Yeah, we won't see him.”
100%Week 2 box score settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Kyler Murray isn’t in the box score
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The Bears beat the Vikings and the game goes over the total.
Guess the Lines, Vikings at Bears (line Bears −5.5).
“To me, if you're going to do the money line with them, you do it with the over.”
55%The box score settles it, but the lean is conditional and no total was stated.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The Browns lose to the Buccaneers.
Betting against Deshaun Watson.
“I'm going to have multiple bets.”
90%The final score settles it; the exact bets aren't specified.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 4
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The Bucs–Browns line moves to Buccaneers −9.5.
The line was 7.5 when he said it.
“This line will be nine and a half in two days.”
85%Closing line at 9.5+ (the stated 'two days' is graded at close).
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Closed TB -8.5
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The Cowboys beat Washington.
Cowboys −4.5 at home against Washington.
“I know I'm going to put them in a money line.”
95%The final score settles the moneyline leg.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 17
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The Packers aren’t good (and lose to the Jets)
“I don't think the Packers are good.”
50%Graded as the Packers losing to the Jets in Week 2; “not good” is a season-long proxy
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Won by 3
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The Jets cover +4.5 against the Packers.
Packers are 4.5-point road favorites; Bill doesn't think they're good.
“I don't like them on the road or at home.”
80%Settles against the line; a lean rather than a stated bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 3
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 20266-point teaser: Falcons +4.5 and Panthers +7.5 in the same game.
Teaser idea: tease both sides to try to middle it.
“You could have the Falcons plus four and a half and the Panthers plus seven and a half and just try to middle it.”
70%Both legs settle from the final score, but he only 'might' bet it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: 2-leg teaser
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026Sam Darnold doesn't play against the Cardinals in Week 2.
“Darnold's out for this week.”
100%Week 2 box score settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Sam Darnold isn’t in the box score
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The 49ers–Dolphins line moves past 13.5
“should go higher than that”
85%Graded as an ESPN closing line of 49ers −14 or more
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Closed SF -12.5
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026Bill’s family doesn’t get a third dog
“We're not going to end up getting the third dog.”
40%Only checkable if Bill mentions a new dog on a later show
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 10, 2026Sam Darnold misses 4 to 6 games
“My guy's missing four to six.”
80%Games missed are a matter of record
Who said it (60%): An unlabeled interjection after House’s Darnold update; it’s probably Bill
Result: Darnold was back starting by Week 3 (Drake Mayday, 00:37:36), missing one game.
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 10, 2026Matthew Stafford recovers from a bad Week 1 and plays fine this season.
“He'll probably be fine.”
30%"Fine" is vague, hedged with "probably", and has no timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 10, 2026David Montgomery outperforms his fantasy draft position.
“who is kind of a sneaky fantasy guy”
35%"Sneaky fantasy guy" has no clear fantasy-rank threshold.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 10, 2026Keyshawn Booty makes a notable play against the Bills.
“And I just know he's going to do something in this Texans game.”
35%'Do something' is vague; a touchdown or a big play would have to stand in.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 10, 2026The Texans have the best defense in the NFL this season.
“I think they have the best defense in the league”
55%"Best defense" needs a proxy such as points or EPA allowed over the season.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 10, 2026The Texans beat the Bills
“i think they're gonna win”
100%This is a binary outright-win claim on a single linkable game, so the automatic win rule settles it exactly. The spread hedge is excluded by definition.
How it’s graded: Correct if the Houston Texans (NFL:HOU) score more points than the Buffalo Bills (NFL:BUF) in their Week 1 2026 NFL regular-season game, with overtime included. Incorrect if the Bills win or the game ends in a tie. The +7.5 point-spread hedge is not graded. The take is the outright win he states. Source: Official final score of the Texans-Bills Week 1 2026 game from the NFL's official gamebook or NFL.com, or ESPN as a fallback.. Settles: When the Week 1 2026 Texans-Bills game goes final, including any overtime. Expected about Sept 13-14, 2026. If the game is postponed, it settles when the rescheduled game goes final. If it is cancelled and never played, the take is voided..
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Lost by 5
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 10, 2026The Texans are the best team in the AFC.
“in general i think they're the best afc team”
50%'Best' needs a proxy such as AFC seed or record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 10, 2026The Jaguars win 8 or 9 games.
“They'll be somewhere 9 -8, 8 -9, whatever, but this is a nice spot for them.”
85%Win total settles from standings; 'somewhere' and 'whatever' hedge the range.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 3–1, 1st in the AFC South, the AFC 2 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 10, 2026Deshaun Watson starts only Weeks 1 and 2 for Cleveland
“more chances in our lives to bet against Deshaun”
70%Watson’s starts are checkable, though it’s half a joke
Who said it (90%): Bill on betting against Deshaun Watson
Result: Bill and Sal called Week 2 the last chance to bet against Watson (The Smashmouth Giants, 01:17:35).
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 10, 20266-point teaser: Texans +7.5 against the Bills and Jaguars −2.5 against the Browns.
Ringer 107, Week 1, his 6-point teaser.
“So my teaser is Texans plus seven and a half Jaguars minus two and a half.”
100%Settles from the final scores; every leg has to cover its teased line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: 2-leg teaser
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 10, 2026The Lions' defense gets torched by an opposing quarterback in one of Weeks 1–4.
“There's going to be a week in these first four weeks when they get absolutely torched by a QB.”
50%'Absolutely torched' needs a proxy, such as an opposing QB passing for 300+ yards in Weeks 1–4.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 10, 2026The Buccaneers beat the Bengals outright.
A moneyline lean on top of his Bucs +3.5 pick (Bucs +168).
“I like the money line, too, in this game house.”
95%A moneyline lean; settles from the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 6
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 10, 2026The Buccaneers cover +3.5 against the Bengals.
Ringer 107, Week 1 pick.
“But for the purposes of our contest, I would go Bucs plus three and a half.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Lost by 6
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 10, 2026The Jets win 7 or 8 games.
“Yeah, we had like seven, eight wins possibly for them.”
75%Win total settles from standings; 'possibly' hedges it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 1–3, 3rd in the AFC East (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 10, 2026The Cowboys cover −2.5 against the Giants.
Ringer 107, Week 1 pick.
“Cowboys Sunday night minus two and a half against the Giants.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Lost by 8
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 10, 2026The Cowboys win 10 or more games.
“I think that's going to happen, especially with the schedule they have.”
85%Win total settles from standings; it is tied to a defensive condition.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the NFC East (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 10, 2026The Steelers win 10 or more games.
“but I think before the year, I had the Steelers at 10 wins.”
90%Win total settles from standings; it is a restated preseason projection.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the AFC North (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 10, 2026The Steelers make the playoffs.
“I think they're going to be a playoff team”
100%Settles from the final standings.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the AFC North (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 10, 2026The Falcons finish with the worst record in the NFC.
“the Falcons have a chance to be the worst team in the league or at least the worst team in the NFC”
45%'Have a chance' is hedged, though the final NFC standings can check it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 10, 2026The Steelers beat the Falcons.
A moneyline lean on top of his Steelers −4.5 Ringer 107 pick.
“but I, I like that Steelers money line was something else”
95%Straight-up result; offered as a parlay leg rather than a firm standalone bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 7
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 10, 2026The Steelers cover −4.5 against the Falcons.
Ringer 107, Week 1 pick.
“So I'm going to hold my nose and I'm going to do Steelers minus four and a half against a Falcons team.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Won by 7
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 10, 2026The Broncos cover +2.5 against the Chiefs.
Leaning toward this for his Sunday fifth pick.
“Right now, leaning toward Broncos, plus two and a half against the Chiefs.”
90%Settles from the final score, but it is only a lean and he hopes for +3.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 21
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 10, 2026Broncos–Chiefs is decided by one score (8 points or fewer).
“i don't understand how this isn't a one score game one way or the other”
90%Final margin of 8 or less either way settles it from the box score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 10, 2026The Ravens–Colts game goes over 47.5.
“And I don't really trust either defense, and I wonder if that is going to be a point bonanza.”
90%Settles from the combined score; it is a lean, not a bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: 64 total points
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 10, 2026The Chargers beat the Cardinals.
“I think the Chargers are going to be pulling it out, Dirk Degger style.”
95%Settles from the final score; it is a lean, not a placed bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 12
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 10, 2026UCLA beats San Diego State.
UCLA is −480 at home against San Diego State.
“I do not think there's any chance UCLA will lose this game”
100%Settles from the final score of UCLA vs. San Diego State.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 9, 2026The Patriots go 6–11.
Right after the Week 1 loss to Seattle.
“I just feel like we're going 6 -11 now.”
75%Final record settles it, but it's despairing hyperbole right after a loss.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 2nd in the AFC East, the AFC 7 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 9, 2026The Patriots' offensive line is about league average this season.
“can they just be a middle of the road offensive line sure”
30%"Middle of the road" needs a proxy such as a pass-block ranking.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 9, 2026The Seahawks have a solid running game this season.
Arguing the Seahawks will survive Darnold's injury.
“It looks like their running game is going to be fine.”
30%A rushing ranking has to stand in for "fine", and no timeframe is given.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 9, 2026The Seahawks win enough with Drew Lock starting while Darnold is out.
“And if they have to have Drew Locke for eight games, I think they'll be fine.”
45%"Fine" needs a proxy, such as a winning record in Lock's starts.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 9, 2026The 49ers beat the Rams in Australia
“It's going to lead to a win tomorrow would be my bet.”
95%The 49ers win or lose in Australia
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Won by 20
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 9, 2026The 49ers struggle after returning from Australia, while the Rams are fine in Week 2.
“I think long -term it's going to be bad”
30%"Bad long-term" has no clear test; Week 2 results are only a loose proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 9, 2026Deshaun Bailey is the top fantasy waiver pickup after Week 1.
“I know Deshaun Bailey is going to be the number one fab fantasy pickup after week one”
50%Top waiver pickup has no official record; add-rate rankings can stand in.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 9, 2026Deshaun Bailey has 7 catches for about 140 yards in his next game.
“because he's going to have seven catches for 140 yards.”
70%Box score settles it, but the player's team and game aren't clear, and he later says 128 yards.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 9, 2026Jesse Minter has a special first season as Ravens head coach.
“I do feel like something special might happen”
25%"Something special" has no clear test.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 9, 2026The Steelers make the playoffs.
Restating his preseason pick.
“the Steelers in the playoffs, as you know”
100%Final standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the AFC North (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 9, 2026Mallory doesn't repeat as Ringer Fantasy Football League champion.
Talking about Mallory, last year's Ringer Fantasy Football League winner, after the Brock Bowers injury.
“she lost it this year”
70%The Ringer fantasy league winner will be public, but the call is a quip blaming Brock Bowers.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 9, 2026The Patriots miss the playoffs.
“and my Patriots season now feels like it might be over.”
60%Standings settle it, but "feels like it might be" is a heavy hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 2nd in the AFC East, the AFC 7 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 9, 2026Seattle gets an NBA team again soon.
“You might get an NBA team again soon.”
40%"Might" and "soon" leave no firm test or timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 8, 2026The Bills are not good this season.
“because I don't even think the Bills are going to be good this year”
50%A record has to stand in for 'good', and he sets no threshold.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 8, 2026The Chiefs win 10 or 11 games.
Explaining why he pulled two Chiefs bets before the futures draft.
“I could just see the Chiefs somehow going 11 and 6, 10 and 7 anyway”
70%The win total settles it from the standings, but 'I could see' is a soft hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 4–0, 1st in the AFC West, the AFC 1 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 8, 2026The underdog Patriots stay competitive with the Seahawks in the opener.
Responding to Kevin Wilds' take that the Pats beat up on the Seahawks.
“They're a live dog tomorrow night.”
55%'Live dog' implies a cover or upset; the spread isn't stated.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 8, 2026The Patriots beat the Seahawks.
Parlay leg (Patriots moneyline plus the over), pitched during a FanDuel read.
“which would be the Patriots money line and the over”
100%Settles from the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 3
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 8, 2026Joel Embiid plays only about 40 games this season.
“he plays 40 games a year.”
45%A games-played count settles it, but it's framed as a habit rather than a season call.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 8, 2026The Clippers sue the NBA over their punishment.
“I think they might end up suing”
65%A lawsuit is public record, but 'might' hedges it and there is no timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 8, 2026MLB has a lockout.
“That changed the entire landscape of baseball and is going to lead to a lockout.”
85%A lockout is public record; the causal link to the Dodgers story isn't checkable.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 8, 2026Kawhi Leonard gets a statue in a city before Kevin Durant does.
Nick asked who is more likely to get a statue in a city, Kawhi or Durant.
“Leonard 100 times”
20%No timeframe; statues may take decades.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 8, 2026Kevin Durant ends up in Seattle and earns a statue there.
“I still feel like there's a Seattle move for him”
20%Seattle has no team, and there is no timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 8, 2026Steve Ballmer doesn't sell the Clippers.
“i don't see him doing it”
70%A sale is public record, but there is no timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 8, 2026A.J. Brown scores a touchdown against the Seahawks.
Same-game parlay leg, pitched during a FanDuel read.
“aj brown he's got to score a touchdown the first game”
100%Settles from the box score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: A.J. Brown: 0 receiving touchdowns
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 8, 2026The Patriots cover +4.5 against the Seahawks.
Same-game parlay leg, pitched during a FanDuel read.
“But Pats plus four and a half”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 3
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 8, 2026Patriots–Seahawks goes under 51.5.
Same-game parlay leg, pitched during a FanDuel read.
“the under 51 and a half because I think the defenses will be further ahead of the offenses”
100%Settles from the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: 23 total points
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 8, 2026The Commanders go under their win total.
Recapping his Washington bets from the futures draft with Sal.
“Unders, adjusted unders”
65%Settles from the standings, but the win-total number isn't stated.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 8, 2026Christian Gonzalez sits out the opener over his contract.
“might just be like I'm not playing tonight”
70%Whether he played is clear, but 'might' is a heavy hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Christian Gonzalez is in the box score
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Patriots cover +3.5 at Seattle.
Week 1 kickoff game in Seattle, Seahawks −3.5.
“I think the Pats are a live dog in this one.”
75%'Live dog' is graded here as covering +3.5; it's a lean, not a stated bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 3
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Ravens beat the Colts.
“My guess is I would probably take the Ravens money line and put that with something because the hook scares me.”
90%Moneyline lean that settles on the result; slightly hedged with 'probably'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 18
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Buccaneers win 9 or more games.
Restating his over-unders pick on Tampa over 8.5 wins.
“I'm in on Tampa”
100%The standings settle a 9-win threshold.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the NFC South (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Buccaneers cover +3.5 at Cincinnati.
Bengals −3.5 at home.
“I just like this spot for them.”
85%He calls Tampa a live dog, so it settles on the spread.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 6
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Lions blow out the Saints.
Lions −6.5 at home; he calls them a flashing neon sign for a teaser.
“This feels blowout -y to me.”
80%Graded here as a 10+ point Lions win; hedged with 'I don't know'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 1
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Eagles go 11–6 again
“they're going to go 11 -6 like they always do”
85%The Eagles’ final record against 11–6
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Eagles cover −5.5 against Washington
“So many times you're getting two free points.”
85%Graded as the Eagles covering −5.5
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Won by 2
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Steelers are a sleeper and win 10 or 11 games.
“steelers could be a little bit sleepery in the afc is like a 10 and an 11 -win team”
65%Hedged with "could"; graded as 10+ wins.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the AFC North (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Jets cover +2.5 at Tennessee.
The line was Titans −2.5; Bill had guessed Jets −1.5.
“I'm going to bet on myself on this one.”
95%A stated bet that settles from the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 13
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Broncos cover +2.5 at Kansas City.
Monday night, Chiefs −2.5 at home.
“I just don't see how the Chiefs are favored like this.”
65%An implied Broncos lean, graded as Denver covering +2.5.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 21
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Falcons and Dolphins both finish last in their divisions.
Futures draft parlay, +343.
“I honestly can't figure out how either of these teams don't finish fourth.”
100%Final division standings settle both legs.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Texans and Seahawks both make the playoffs.
Futures draft parlay, +112.
“I have Houston and Seattle both to make the playoffs.”
100%Final playoff standings settle both legs.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Texans and Seahawks have two of the three best defenses in the league.
“I just think Houston's defense and Seattle's defense, those are going to be two of the three best defenses in the league.”
55%Needs a defensive metric (EPA or points allowed) as a proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Tampa wins the NFC South (+175)
“Now, Tampa, to win the NFC South, plus 175.”
100%Settles automatically from the final regular-season standings
How it’s graded: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finish first in their division in the final 2026 regular-season standings (tiebreakers included). Source: ESPN final regular-season standings (saved in data/standings.js). Settles: After the 2026 regular season ends (Week 18).
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the NFC South (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Dak Prescott wins MVP.
Futures draft, 18-1.
“I have Dak Prescott to win the MVP.”
100%The MVP award winner settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Seahawks rookie running back Price runs for more than 750.5 yards.
Futures draft, over 750.5 rushing yards.
“750.5 yards rushing this is over under on fan duel”
100%The season rushing total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Matthew Golden and Jalen Coker each get 600+ receiving yards and Rashid Shaheed gets 500+.
Futures draft parlay, +561.
“Matthew Golden on the Packers to get 600 -plus receiving yards.”
100%Season receiving totals settle every leg.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Washington and Atlanta both go under 8.5 wins (+112)
“both under eight and”
100%Both teams’ final win totals
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Washington and the Falcons both win 8 or fewer games.
Futures draft parlay, +112.
“both under eight and a half wins.”
100%The standings settle both win totals.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Baker Mayfield throws for 4,000+ yards.
Futures draft, +340.
“Baker Mayfield, 4,000 -plus passing yards plus 340.”
100%Season passing yards settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Caleb Williams throws for 4,000+ yards.
Futures draft, +210.
“Caleb Williams plus 210.”
100%Season passing yards settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026David Montgomery runs for 1,000+ yards for the Texans.
Futures draft, +220.
“1,000 -yard rushing season.”
100%The season rushing total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Malik Willis runs for 1,000+ yards.
Futures draft, +850.
“Thousand yards rushing this year, plus 850.”
100%The season rushing total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Seattle and New England over 8.5 wins, Rams under 13.5 (+145)
“Seattle and New England together over eight and a half wins.”
100%Three teams’ final win totals
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Myles Garrett wins Defensive Player of the Year (4–1)
“Miles Garrett, Defensive Player of the Year, 4 -1.”
95%Defensive Player of the Year voting
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Vikings finish 4th in the NFC North (+175)
“okay Vikings fourth in the NFC North plus 175 is off the board.”
100%Final division standings give a clear yes or no; no automatic rule covers 4th place.
How it’s graded: The Vikings finish 4th (last) in the final 2026 NFC North regular-season standings, with NFL tiebreakers applied. Source: NFL.com official final 2026 division standings. Settles: End of the 2026 NFL regular season.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Cowboys win 11 or more games.
Futures draft, +500.
“I don't like your attitude so I'm going to take Cowboys over 10 and a half”
100%The final win total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the NFC East (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Falcons win 5 or fewer games.
Futures draft, +190.
“I'm going to follow that up with Falcons under five and a half wins plus 190.”
100%The final win total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 1–2, 2nd in the NFC South (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Falcons finish with a top-5 draft pick.
“I think they will have a top 5 pick next year”
95%The draft order settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Seahawks win the NFC West.
Futures draft, +210.
“I'm going to put Seahawks, NFC West, plus 210 on the board.”
100%Final division standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 3–1, 2nd in the NFC West, the NFC 6 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Texans win the AFC South.
Futures draft, +120.
“Quickly, Houston to win the AFC South.”
100%Final division standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the AFC South (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Texans and Seahawks each win 10+ games and the Buccaneers win 9+.
Futures draft parlay with Tampa over 8.5.
“Houston and Seattle over nine and a half wins each.”
100%The standings settle all three win totals.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Ravens are the AFC's 1 seed.
Futures draft, +500, with Houston as the 1 seed (+750) as his hedge.
“Baltimore, one seed plus 500.”
100%Final playoff seeding settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 3–1, 2nd in the AFC North, the AFC 5 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Baltimore (+500) or Houston (+750) is the AFC’s No. 1 seed
“Houston, one seed plus 750.”
100%Official seeding gives a clear yes or no, but no single-team rule covers either team.
How it’s graded: Baltimore or Houston finishes as the AFC's No. 1 playoff seed in the final 2026 NFL regular-season standings. Source: NFL.com final 2026 regular-season standings and playoff seeding. Settles: End of the 2026 NFL regular season.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Parker Washington gets 1,000+ receiving yards.
Futures draft, +165.
“I have him 1,000 yards”
100%Season receiving yards settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Jesse Minter wins Coach of the Year.
Futures draft, +850 on Jesse Minter for Coach of the Year.
“This year, it's going to be him.”
100%The award winner settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Washington wins 5 or fewer games.
Futures draft, +220.
“I'm going to do Washington under five and a half wins plus 220.”
100%The final win total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 1–3, 4th in the NFC East (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Patriots win the AFC East.
Futures draft, +140.
“Pats to win the AFC East plus 140.”
100%Final division standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 2nd in the AFC East, the AFC 7 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Justin Herbert throws for 4,500+ yards.
Futures draft, 12-1.
“Justin Herbert, 4,500 yards.”
100%The season passing yardage settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Patrick Mahomes wins Comeback Player of the Year.
“I find it hard to believe Mahomes isn't going to win this unless he goes like 7 -10.”
90%The award is public record, though he hedges on the Chiefs' record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Brock Bowers gets 1,000+ receiving yards.
Futures draft, +135.
“Brock Bowers, 1,000 yards, plus 135.”
100%Season receiving yards settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Chiefs aren't a good team this year.
“I don't think they're going to be good”
50%"Good" needs a proxy such as a winning record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Bears win 10 or more games.
Futures draft, +120.
“one of them is bears over nine and a half wins plus 120.”
100%The final win total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 3–1, 2nd in the NFC North, the NFC 5 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Emeka Egbuka gets 1,000+ receiving yards.
Futures draft, +150.
“Did we do a Bucca 1,000 yards at plus 150 yet”
100%Season receiving yards settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026David Montgomery scores 8+ touchdowns.
Futures draft, −102.
“David Montgomery, eight touchdowns.”
95%His touchdown total settles it, though rushing-only vs. all TDs was unclear.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Seahawks rookie Price wins Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Futures draft, Price at +650.
“Offensive Rookie of the Year, plus 650.”
100%The award winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Seahawks beat the Texans in the Super Bowl.
Exact-matchup pick at +5340; Seattle repeats.
“My Super Bowl pick is Seattle over Houston.”
100%The Super Bowl result settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 3, 2026The Clippers draw fewer fans over the next couple of years than at any point in franchise history.
“They, I think, will have less fans over the next couple of years than they've ever had at any point in the history of the franchise”
50%Attendance is public, but 'fans' and 'next couple of years' need a proxy and a window.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 3, 2026Without first-round picks, the Clippers can't land a star free agent in 2027 or 2028.
“when you don't have picks, you can't get somebody like Jokic or Giannis to show up in 2027 or 2028.”
55%Signings are public, but 'somebody like Jokic or Giannis' needs a definition of star.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 3, 2026The Clippers' 2028 first-round pick ends up with the Celtics.
“This 2028 pick they have, it's probably going to the Celtics unprotected.”
70%Draft records settle it, but the call is hedged with 'probably' and depends on the pick swap.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 3, 2026OKC and the Spurs win fewer than five titles in the next 10 years.
Responding to Barkley's five-titles-in-10-years bet.
“that's not going to happen”
90%Title count is public; the 10-year window is far off.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 3, 2026The Jazz are dangerous this season if Peterson is good right away.
“I'm with you on Utah because the X factor for them is if Peterson is good right away”
35%Conditional on Peterson, and 'dangerous' is vague.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 3, 2026The favored Rams don't win the Super Bowl.
On the Rams being the prohibitive Super Bowl favorite.
“So anytime I ever see somebody that's a prohibitive favorite, I just don't, I'm not buying it.”
55%Implicit fade, graded here as the Rams not winning the Super Bowl.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 3, 2026The Texans and Seahawks meet in the Super Bowl.
“Houston and Seattle in the Super Bowl”
100%The Super Bowl matchup is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 3, 2026The Seahawks win back-to-back Super Bowls.
“I have Seattle winning back to back”
100%The Super Bowl winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
