NFL
San Francisco 49ers
Takes
22
from 7 people
Linked games
5
Games
SF 27@
LAR 7·Final·Close LAR -3.5→
MIA 13@SF 35·Final·Close SF -12.5→
ARI 30@SF 36·Final·Close SF -7.5→
DEN 14@SF 24·Final·Close SF -3→SF@
SEA·10/11 - 4:25 PM EDT·Close SEA -2.5→Takes about the 49ers
Graded so far: 9–2 (82%)
Transcripts don’t label speakers, so each take has a speaker confidence score for who said it (hover it for the reasoning). Each take also has a gradeability score: 100% means it can be cleanly confirmed or refuted, and 0% means pure opinion. Click a tier to filter.
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026Three NFC West teams make the playoffs.
“I think there's three NFC West teams in the playoffs again”
100%The playoff field is public record and counting NFC West qualifiers is a clear yes or no.
How it’s graded: At least three of the four NFC West teams (ARI, LAR, SF, SEA) qualify for the 2026-27 NFL playoffs. Source: NFL.com final 2026 regular-season standings and playoff bracket. Settles: End of the 2026 NFL regular season.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026Kyle Shanahan wins Coach of the Year.
“Shanahan just give it to him now, this coach of the year”
100%Award winner is a single public announcement, a clear yes or no.
How it’s graded: Kyle Shanahan is named AP NFL Coach of the Year for the 2026 season. Source: AP NFL Honors announcement (NFL.com / ESPN). Settles: NFL Honors, February 2027.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Seahawks beat the 49ers.
“It's where they make their move in”
90%Game result settles it; the phrasing is a lean.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026Brock Purdy becomes the MVP favorite if the 49ers win at Seattle.
“Birdie's the MVP favorite if he pulls this off somehow.”
60%Conditional on a 49ers win, then the MVP odds have to be checked by hand.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The 49ers cover −2.5 against the Broncos.
Sign-off lean; the line was 49ers −2.5.
“maybe, laying the points”
90%Settles from the final score against the line; 'maybe' hedges.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 10
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 24, 2026The 49ers cover −8.5 against the Cardinals.
“I might end up playing San Francisco laying the 8.5”
80%Final score against the line settles it; "might" bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Won by 6
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The 49ers make the playoffs.
Going through which 2–0 teams make the playoffs.
“San Francisco, unless they have a million injuries”
80%Standings settle it, but it's conditioned on injuries.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 4–0, 1st in the NFC West, the NFC 2 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Cardinals cover +8.5 against the 49ers.
“I think the Cardinals can hang with them.”
80%"Hang with them" is graded here as covering +8.5.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 6
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026The 49ers beat the Dolphins (moneyline parlay leg).
A moneyline parlay leg alongside the Bucs.
“something like the, the Niners, uh, and, and, and the Bucs”
95%One game settles it; 'something like' hedges the leg slightly.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Won by 22
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026The 49ers win the NFC West.
An existing futures bet at about 3–1.
“I have the Niners already close to three to one”
95%Final standings settle it; the market is inferred from the division-odds discussion.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Currently 4–0, 1st in the NFC West, the NFC 2 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026The 49ers cover −13.5 against the Dolphins.
Ringer 107, Week 2 pick.
“It's San Francisco laying less than two touchdowns at home against Miami.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Won by 22
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The 49ers–Dolphins line moves past 13.5
“should go higher than that”
85%Graded as an ESPN closing line of 49ers −14 or more
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Closed SF -12.5
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 10, 2026The 49ers win the NFC West.
A preseason future he restates after the win over the Rams.
“them to win this division”
100%Settles from the final NFC West standings.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Currently 4–0, 1st in the NFC West, the NFC 2 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 10, 2026The 49ers face Drew Lock instead of Sam Darnold when they play Seattle.
“they might face Drew Locke”
55%Hedged with "might" and depends on Darnold's injury timeline.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 9, 2026The 49ers beat the Rams in Australia
“It's going to lead to a win tomorrow would be my bet.”
95%The 49ers win or lose in Australia
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Won by 20
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 9, 2026The 49ers struggle after returning from Australia, while the Rams are fine in Week 2.
“I think long -term it's going to be bad”
30%"Bad long-term" has no clear test; Week 2 results are only a loose proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 9, 2026The 49ers are alive as 3.5-point underdogs
“I just think Shanahan gives them an edge.”
100%The final score alone shows whether San Francisco covered the 3.5-point spread.
How it’s graded: The 49ers cover +3.5 against the Rams: they win outright or lose by 3 or fewer points in their next game after 2026-09-09. Source: Official NFL final score (NFL.com or ESPN box score). Settles: Final whistle of the next 49ers-Rams game in 2026.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Won by 20
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 9, 2026The 49ers cover +3.5 against the Rams.
“Just take the points.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Danny Heifetz)
Result: Won by 20
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 9, 2026The 49ers cover +3.5 against the Rams.
“I think the Rams are more or less punting this game”
90%Settles against the line; his side comes from "all of us are on the Niners".
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Craig Horlbeck)
Result: Won by 20
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 8, 2026The 49ers beat the Rams in Australia but struggle for weeks afterward from the travel.
Agreeing with an emailer that the 49ers win in Australia but are thrown off for two months.
“So I think that's super plausible.”
30%He only calls it plausible, and the slump is vague.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Nick Wright)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The 49ers cover +3.5 against the Rams.
Asked to choose between Pats +3.5 and Niners +3.5 for the Australia game, he says San Francisco.
“This is the healthiest the 49ers will be all year.”
80%The final score settles it, but this is a lean rather than a firm pick.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Won by 20
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Stribling (49ers) wins Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Futures draft, +850.
“Stribling for the 49ers plus 850.”
100%The award winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)