The Bill Simmons PodcastNBA Lie Detectors, Duren’s Future, Tomlin’s TV Splash, and a 2026 Sports Media Check
TL;DR
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- Bill opens gloomy after the Red Sox drop Game 1 of their Wild Card series in New York, with Roman Anthony hurt again and the offense gone cold since August.
- Goldsberry thinks Jalen Duren should take Detroit’s 5-year, $200M offer, but both sense a trade coming. Atlanta is the most logical landing spot.
- A “Do you believe this?” run through NBA media-day quotes: LeBron in Philly, Jokic saying he’ll re-sign, Ty Lue and Tim Connelly claiming they’re happy, and the Kings’ hot-mic moment.
- Bryan Curtis and Bill rank NFL broadcasters (Collinsworth, Brady, Aikman), praise Mike Tomlin’s halftime work, doubt Herbstreit and Barkley’s retirement, and mourn the short newspaper column.
Segments
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00:00
Intro: Red Sox–Yankees Game 1
The Yankees win Game 1 behind Schlittler. Bill questions pulling Payton Tolle in the 5th, lists the Red Sox injuries, and admits he has few hopes for the rest of the series. He also worries about Drake Maye’s shoulder, and his head.
00:07 · with Goldsberry
Jalen Duren’s standoff in Detroit
Goldsberry, mustache and all after a Texas bet, says Duren should sign: centers making $35M+ mostly look like regrets in the second-apron era. Bill compares it to Shawn Kemp in Seattle and expects a trade. They kick around Washington (Anthony Davis) and Sacramento (Sabonis) before agreeing that Atlanta, with Okongwu and Daniels going to Detroit, makes the most sense.
00:19 · with Goldsberry
NBA “points of education”
The league is targeting the off-arm push on drives, which Goldsberry pins on SGA and Bill on Jaylen Brown, and illegal moving screens. Bill thinks the screen crackdown will stick and the off-arm one is a maybe.
00:24 · with Goldsberry
“Do you believe this?” Media day quotes
- LeBron in Philly: “I didn’t come here to lose in the second round” reads as a jab at Embiid. Both like the Sixers’ depth for managing Embiid’s workload.
- Tim Connelly and Ty Lue: neither says he’s happy and believes it. Bill thinks both eventually leave.
- Tatum’s “not my team”: Bill’s answer is that the Celtics traded Jaylen Brown to make it his team. Goldsberry backs the Paul George fit.
- Lakers and Bucks: JJ Redick and Austin Reaves get low believability scores, and John Horst’s Gary Trent Jr. defense gets a zero.
- Jokic: he says he’ll re-sign next year, which Goldsberry calls the biggest news of the day.
- Kawhi in Toronto: Bill sees a 50-win team, and Goldsberry says Kawhi could be the best player in the East if healthy.
00:58 · with Goldsberry
Vegas expansion
Bill reads the reported range as a roughly $9.5B fee and expects the league to go to 31 teams in stages, with Minnesota moving East. Goldsberry is more interested in the expansion draft, and neither has a nickname they love.
01:03 · with Curtis
Tomlin, Brady, and the NFL booth
Tomlin’s solo halftime spots feel like a smart football podcast, the opposite of crowded pregame panels. Bill thinks NBC should try him in the booth. Both now rank Brady among the top three analysts, with Collinsworth and Aikman. They find J.J. Watt solid but not yet a lead analyst for CBS, rate Mike Tirico as the best play-by-play voice, and find Drew Brees a pleasant surprise at Fox.
01:28 · with Curtis
College football and Herbstreit
Neither sees Arch Manning as a top-three pick. Curtis defends Kirk Herbstreit as an unusually well-prepared college announcer, while Bill doesn’t get him on NFL broadcasts, or the dog store.
01:34 · with Curtis
Barkley, McAfee, and Stephen A.
Curtis doesn’t buy Barkley’s latest retirement talk. They track ESPN’s shift from Stephen A. Smith toward Pat McAfee and the wrestling-promo feel of today’s media feuds.
01:40 · with Curtis
Baseball announcers
There has never been a national baseball color analyst everyone loved; early Tim McCarver comes closest. They can’t name one to get excited about this postseason, though Bill thinks the baseball audience will keep growing.
01:49 · with Curtis
The lost art of the column
The ideal column length (about 1,000–1,250 words), deadline writing, gimmicks that sometimes unlock something, and whether the Substack era rewards writers who challenge their audience. Curtis closes by predicting 10–2 and a playoff spot for Texas.
Predictions on the record
Graded so far: 0–0 (—)
Transcripts don’t label speakers, so each take has a speaker confidence score for who said it (hover it for the reasoning). Each take also has a gradeability score: 100% means it can be cleanly confirmed or refuted, and 0% means pure opinion. Click a tier to filter.
- The Red Sox lose the wild-card series to the Yankees.
After the Red Sox lost Game 1 of the wild-card series at Yankee Stadium.
“I do not have high hopes for the rest of this”
70%The series result settles it, but 'not high hopes' is a hedge rather than a firm call.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Jalen Duren gets traded out of Detroit
“so it makes me think he's going to get traded”
65%A trade is checkable, but there’s no deadline on it
Who said it (90%): Bill’s Shawn Kemp history riff, right after Goldsberry’s cap argument
Result: Duren signed Detroit’s 5-year, $200M offer two days later (Hello Cleveland, 00:49:13). A trade could still follow.
- A Duren trade is coming
“it does feel like a trade”
60%“On the horizon” is checkable eventually, but it’s vague on timing
Who said it (85%): Goldsberry agreeing with Bill’s trade read; the two alternate in this segment
Result: Duren signed Detroit’s 5-year, $200M offer two days later (Hello Cleveland, 00:49:13). A trade could still follow.
- Detroit doesn't trade Duren to Washington for Anthony Davis.
On the floated Duren-for-Anthony Davis deal with Washington.
“not going to work because it floated around yesterday with AD”
80%Public record settles whether the deal happens.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Pistons won’t win 60 games again
“Well, they're not winning that this year.”
100%Pistons’ final win total against last year’s 60
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Pistons win fewer than 60 games.
Agreeing with Goldsberry that Detroit won't repeat last season's 60 wins.
“I didn't think they had any chance of winning 60”
95%The Pistons' final win total settles it, though he states it as a doubt rather than a firm number.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Hawks are a rising team in the East this season.
“So, you know, Atlanta is the team to watch in my opinion.”
25%'Team to watch' has no clear test.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Kirk Goldsberry)
- CJ McCollum loses his role to Atlanta's young point guard.
“I still think CJ is running on borrowed time a little bit.”
30%Vague; minutes or a lost starting role would have to stand in.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Kirk Goldsberry)
- The NBA doesn't stick with enforcing the off-arm offensive foul.
“a little bit cynical that they're going to enforce it”
30%Enforcement is hard to measure; foul-call data would have to stand in.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Kirk Goldsberry)
- The NBA keeps enforcing illegal screens all season.
“they'll follow through on the illegal screens”
35%No clear measure of 'follow through' beyond foul-call trends.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- A slimmer Joel Embiid stays healthier this season.
“Being skinnier will help him not get injured is my expert take.”
40%Games played would have to stand in for 'not get injured'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Embiid stays available all season with LeBron's help.
“I think that we could see the LeBron effect for Embiid actually being sustainability for that dude.”
45%Games played would have to stand in for 'sustainability', and 'could' is a hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Kirk Goldsberry)
- The LaMelo Ball trade doesn't work out for Minnesota.
“I don't think it's going to work”
45%Results would have to stand in for 'work'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Kirk Goldsberry)
- LaMelo Ball plays fewer than 82 games.
“Lamello Ball is never going to be healthy to play 82 games”
95%LaMelo's games-played total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Kirk Goldsberry)
- Tim Connolly and Tyronn Lue both leave their teams for jobs elsewhere.
“think they both will.”
60%Public record settles it, but there is no timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Lakers' perimeter defense is a major weakness this season.
“I think they're in a lot of trouble anyway at the point of attack”
40%Defensive ratings would have to stand in for 'trouble'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Kirk Goldsberry)
- The Pelicans aren't a factor in the West this season.
“clearly isn't going to make a lot of noise in the Western Conference”
55%Missing the playoffs would have to stand in for 'make noise'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Kirk Goldsberry)
- Zion Williamson never becomes a top-25 player.
“I don't think it's going to happen.”
40%A top-25 ranking needs a proxy, and there is no timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Nuggets aren't the league's best team, even when healthy.
“even when they have all their guys, they're not the best in the league”
50%Not winning the title would have to stand in for 'best in the league'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Denver's core, Aaron Gordon included, doesn't stay healthy through the playoffs.
“I just don't believe that this is going to happen”
45%Games missed would have to stand in for 'healthy'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Kirk Goldsberry)
- LaMelo Ball plays fewer than 2,200 minutes this season.
“2200 minutes would be a miracle”
90%LaMelo's season minutes total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Nikola Jokic re-signs with the Nuggets next year.
Jokic said he'll sign next year if Denver wants him.
“I believe that.”
85%Public record settles it, though it depends on Denver wanting him.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- If Kawhi plays 60 games, the Raptors are a real threat in the East.
On Kawhi Leonard's move to Toronto.
“the Toronto Raptors are a very interesting team to watch in the Eastern Conference”
35%It depends on Kawhi playing 60 games, and 'interesting team to watch' needs a proxy such as seed or wins.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Kirk Goldsberry)
- The Raptors win 50 or more games.
Toronto's Vegas win total was about 46 or 47.
“But to me, that's a 50 -win team.”
100%Final standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Las Vegas expansion fee comes in around $9.5 billion.
“It's going to be nine and a half.”
85%The announced fee settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The NBA expands to 31 teams first, with Seattle staggered later.
“So they're going to go 31 teams.”
75%League announcements settle it, with no timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Minnesota moves to the East with expansion
“Yeah, Minnesota moves to the East.”
80%The East-or-West placement is a clear yes or no, but expansion may not be announced by the deadline, so the take could void.
How it’s graded: When the NBA officially announces conference alignment for its next expansion, the Timberwolves are placed in the Eastern Conference; void if no announcement by 2028-12-31. Source: NBA.com official expansion/realignment announcement. Settles: NBA realignment announcement, or void 2028-12-31.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- Las Vegas doesn't hold up as a long-term pro sports market.
“I'm a little bearish on Vegas as a long -term sports city”
15%Vague and long-term, with no record to check.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Kirk Goldsberry)
- The NBA holds an expansion draft for the Vegas team next summer.
Discussing the NBA's Las Vegas expansion bid.
“as soon as next summer we could see players being peeled off of the other 30 teams' rosters to go populate this new team”
60%Whether an expansion draft happens next summer is public record, but 'could' is a hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Kirk Goldsberry)
- The Vegas expansion team's nickname is bad.
“I'm just assuming it's going to be terrible”
15%Pure taste.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Vegas expansion team's nickname and branding turn out well.
Countering Bill's prediction that the Vegas team's nickname will be terrible.
“I think it could be cool”
15%Whether the branding is 'cool' is a matter of taste, and 'could' is a hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Kirk Goldsberry)
- Mike Tomlin doesn't return to coaching next season.
“It makes me think he doesn't want to coach.”
55%Inferred from a vibe, with no firm timeframe; checkable by whether he takes a job.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- J.J. Watt doesn't become CBS's lead NFL analyst.
“I'm not sure he's the number one guy.”
35%Hedged ('not sure'), but CBS's lead-booth choice is checkable.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bryan Curtis)
- Drew Brees becomes Fox's No. 2 NFL analyst.
“he's going to be the number two guy pretty soon”
70%Fox's booth assignments settle it; 'pretty soon' is loose.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bryan Curtis)
- Greg Olsen leaves Fox's No. 2 booth.
“Greg Olson's going to clearly go away.”
65%Public record settles it, but there is no timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bryan Curtis)
- Arch Manning isn't a top-three NFL draft pick.
“But I personally don't see it as a top three pick.”
75%Draft position settles it once he declares.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Arch Manning isn't a top-five NFL draft pick.
“I don't see him as like a classic top five pick”
70%Draft position settles it, but 'classic' is a hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bryan Curtis)
- Kirk Herbstreit drops NFL games and returns to college only when his contract ends.
“maybe he just goes back”
35%'Maybe' is a heavy hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bryan Curtis)
- Pat McAfee appears on Inside the NBA this season.
On Inside the NBA's first season at ESPN.
“It'll be different this year when McAfee's on the show.”
70%McAfee's appearances on Inside the NBA are checkable, but how often he has to appear isn't defined.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Stephen A. Smith cuts back from doing three shows a day.
“I don't think that's sustainable.”
25%No clear test for 'sustainable'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Charles Barkley doesn't retire after this season.
Barkley said this season would be his last.
“I think he's coming back.”
85%Whether Barkley is on air next season is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bryan Curtis)
- MLB's audience keeps growing this decade, barring a lockout.
“I think the baseball audience is really going to keep growing this decade, assuming they don't have a lockout.”
55%Ratings would have to stand in for 'audience', and it's conditional on no lockout.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Sports writing never returns to its 2011 peak of new writers and styles.
Bill asks whether there will ever again be as many writers trying different things as around 2011.
“I don't think so.”
10%No record measures whether sports writing is as crowded and varied as it was in 2011.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bryan Curtis)
- Charles Barkley returns to TV after this season.
Wrapping up after Curtis predicted Barkley won't really retire.
“Maybe a lot of stuff will come back, including Charles Barkley.”
65%Barkley's return is public record, but 'maybe' and the joking tone weaken the call.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Texas finishes 10-2 and makes the College Football Playoff.
“I think 10 -2 and in the playoff.”
90%The final record and playoff field settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bryan Curtis)
