The Bill Simmons PodcastApex Josh Allen, the Goofy NFC North, Week 2 Picks, and Bill’s Breakup Letter to the Clippers |
TL;DR
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- Live on Netflix after Buffalo beat Detroit 41–31. Bill and Tom Pelissero call Josh Allen the best player in the league. The Bills under Joe Brady look like an offense that plans to outscore everyone.
- Pelissero rounds up league news: a messy NFC North with no clear favorite, the Chargers' Week 1 flop putting Harbaugh's team under the microscope, Kyler Murray likely back by Week 3, and a quiet year before the TV-deal and CBA storms.
- Bill reads the email he sent asking the Clippers to let him out of the last three years of his season tickets. House thinks there may be real legal grounds and predicts Kawhi skips Toronto's game in L.A.
- Ringer 107: both picked Houston −2.5. Bill took the Jets +3.5, the Patriots −4.5 and a Bucs/Jags teaser. House took Denver −2.5, the 49ers −13.5 and an Eagles/under teaser. Along the way they combed through division and playoff futures.
Segments
4▸
00:00
Lions-Bills reactions and more with Tom Pelissero
Pelissero had texted Bill before kickoff that Buffalo would score 40-plus against a beat-up Lions secondary. Bill makes the case that Allen is now clearly the league's best player, and the two compare McDermott's run with Joe Brady's freer offense. They then cover Jahmyr Gibbs's unsustainable workload, with Pelissero expecting Detroit to sign a veteran back, and the Ben Johnson shadow over Dan Campbell. From there: the shaky NFC North defenses, early hot-seat watch led by the flat Chargers before their trip to the Raiders, Minnesota's QB plan with Kyler likely back in Week 3, and Philly's grind-it-out identity. They close on the league's quiet calm before the 2029 TV opt-outs and the CBA, and whether big new money could pry loose a family-owned franchise.
00:41
Bill's letter to the Clippers
Bill is baffled by Kawhi Leonard's happy homecoming in Toronto after the wreckage he left behind in L.A. House is sure Kawhi will sit out Toronto's game against the Clippers. Bill reads his email asking the Clippers to release him and Mike Tollin from the last three years of a five-year season-ticket commitment, arguing that the team's rule-breaking and the league's punishment broke the deal first. House floats fraudulent inducement and possible class actions.
00:50
Mailbag
Questions cover the following: - Whether New England is this year's "year from hell" team. - Romeo Doubs wearing Gronk's 87. - Why the ManningCast is drawing so few viewers. - "Browns Hog Day" Week 1 interceptions and stadiums that never host playoff games. - Who the NBA's "nerd king" is: Gobert, Chet or the Thompson twins. They also discuss Anthony Davis and the Wizards pausing extension talks, why the lottery clearly isn't rigged, and how expansion pricing in Vegas and Seattle might be handled.
01:06
Ringer 107 picks
Both went 2–3 in Week 1. Bill takes the following: - Houston −2.5 (House piggybacks). - The Jets +3.5 in the rain against a Packers team he expects to start 0–2. - A teaser of the Jags +8.5 and the Bucs −2.5, a last chance to fade Deshaun Watson. - The rested Patriots −4.5 against Pittsburgh. House takes the following: - Denver −2.5 off a loss. - An in-game teaser of the Eagles −1 and under 45.5 in Tennessee. - The 49ers −13.5 against a hapless Miami. Between picks they shop division and playoff futures. House likes the Bucs to win the NFC South and has loaded up on the Chiefs after Week 1. Bill likes a parlay of the Chargers and Packers both missing the playoffs. Both float possible Sunday fifth picks.
Predictions on the record
Graded so far: 15–10 (60%)
Transcripts don’t label speakers, so each take has a speaker confidence score for who said it (hover it for the reasoning). Each take also has a gradeability score: 100% means it can be cleanly confirmed or refuted, and 0% means pure opinion. Click a tier to filter.
- Sean McDermott is coaching somewhere in 2027.
On the Bills replacing McDermott with Joe Brady.
“he'll be coaching somewhere in 2027”
90%A 2027 coaching job is public record; it only allows for some ambiguity about what counts as a coaching role.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
- The Bills win the AFC.
Sizing up the AFC after Buffalo's 2–0 start.
“if you were betting on anyone, you'd bet on them”
70%AFC champion is a public record, but hedged with 'probably' and 'two weeks'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Joe Burrow plays against Houston despite his back issue.
“Joe Burrow's got a little bit of a back issue, but I fully anticipate him playing”
100%Whether he played settles from the box score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
Result: Joe Burrow is in the box score
- Josh Allen has the best season of his career.
Bill says it feels like Allen is set for the best year of his career.
“it just feels like this is lining up for Josh”
45%'Best year of his career' needs a proxy such as MVP or career-high stats.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Jahmyr Gibbs doesn't hold up under his current workload.
“I just don't see him holding up”
35%'Holding up' has no clear test; injury or a reduced workload would stand in.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Lions add a veteran running back by Monday's practice.
Gibbs had 56 touches in five days and the Lions' RB2 has three carries.
“by the time the Lions are back on the practice field Monday, they'll have another veteran back on the roster”
100%Graded as: Lions sign or trade for a RB with 1+ prior NFL regular-season game between Sept 17 and Sept 21, 2026.
How it’s graded: Lions sign or trade for a RB with 1+ prior NFL regular-season game (53-man or practice squad) between Sept 17 and Sept 21, 2026. Source: Lions official transactions and NFL transaction wire. Settles: End of day Monday, Sept 21, 2026.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
Result: The Lions' transaction log shows only a DB (Jalen Mills) signed to the practice squad on 9/21 and no RB signing in the window. The Roydell Williams signing was Aug 24, and he is a rookie with no NFL games. Hunt was not signed.
- Graded by: Detroit Lions (official) ↗ Detroit Lions Transactions | Detroit Lions - DetroitLions.com
- The NFC North winner finishes better than 9–8.
Asked himself, “Could 9–8 win the NFC North?”
“I don't think so.”
90%The division winner's record settles it from final standings.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bears win the NFC North.
“I guess you'd say the Bears until proven otherwise”
80%Final standings settle it; he first says there's no clear favorite.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
Result: Currently 3–1, 2nd in the NFC North, the NFC 5 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- Jim Harbaugh is not fired this season.
“Not because I think Jim Harbaugh gets fired”
75%A firing is public record, but he gives no timeframe (read as this season).
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
- The Chargers miss the playoffs.
Reversing his preseason pick of the Chargers as a playoff team.
“I don't think that's a playoff team.”
100%Final playoff field settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the AFC West (as of 2026-10-05)
- Ladd McConkey misses the Raiders game.
“I expect him to be out for the game”
100%The box score shows whether he played.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
Result: Ladd McConkey is in the box score
- Brock Bowers doesn't play against the Chargers.
“Seems unlikely that he plays this week.”
95%The box score settles it; hedged as "seems unlikely."
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
Result: Brock Bowers isn’t in the box score
- The Chargers–Raiders line drops below Chargers −6.5 by kickoff.
“But I think it's going to keep dropping”
90%The closing line is checkable against the stated Chargers −6.5.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Dolphins go winless (0–17).
“they played Miami who might go 0 -17”
80%Final record settles it, but hedged with 'might'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Kyler Murray doesn't play against the Bears.
“I don't think he plays on Sunday for a variety of different reasons”
100%The box score shows whether he played.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
Result: Kyler Murray isn’t in the box score
- Kyler Murray is back in the Vikings' lineup in Week 3.
“I fully anticipate he's back in the lineup probably week three”
100%Graded as: Kyler Murray plays at least one offensive snap for the Vikings in their 2026 Week 3 game.
How it’s graded: Kyler Murray plays at least one offensive snap for the Vikings in their 2026 Week 3 game. Source: Vikings Week 3 box score and snap counts (ESPN/PFR). Settles: End of the Vikings' 2026 Week 3 game.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
Result: Murray cleared concussion protocol Sept. 21 and started Week 3 at Tampa Bay (W 23-16), going 15/29 for 168 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT.
- Graded by: Minnesota Vikings (vikings.com) ↗ Kyler Murray (QB): Bio, News, Stats & more
- The Eagles go about 11–6 and make the playoffs.
“we get to the end and they're 11 and six and they're playing in the playoffs”
85%The playoff berth is clear; the 11–6 record is illustrative, not exact.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
Result: Currently 2–2, 2nd in the NFC East (as of 2026-10-05)
- The NFL opts out of its TV deals in 2029.
“is going to opt out of their TV deals in 2029”
75%A public league decision, but years away and framed as the consensus expectation.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
- Kawhi Leonard sits out Toronto's game at the Clippers.
“Kawhi Leonard won't play in that basketball game.”
95%The box score from Toronto's game at the Clippers settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
- The Clippers miss the playoffs in each of the next three seasons.
From his letter asking out of his season tickets.
“Now we're looking at three more years of a non -playoff team with the weakest future in the NBA.”
80%Playoff appearances are public record, but it spans three seasons.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Browns' current stadium is torn down without ever hosting a playoff game.
“It might have a three -decade life and get knocked down without ever hosting a playoff game”
70%Clear outcome, but years away and hedged with 'might'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Anthony Davis signs an extension with the Wizards.
After news that Davis and the Wizards delayed extension talks.
“the extension will take care of itself”
65%An extension signing is a public record, but no timeframe is given.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Texans cover −2.5 against the Bengals.
Ringer 107, Week 2 pick.
“But under three, I'm taking Houston minus two and a half.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Lost by 14
- The Texans cover −2.5 against the Bengals.
Ringer 107, Week 2 pick.
“Nothing moved me off my priors with Houston.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Lost by 14
- The Texans beat the Bengals by 3 or more.
“I think they went by three at least”
100%The final score settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 14
- The Jets beat the Packers outright.
A moneyline lean on top of his Jets +3.5 pick.
“I actually like the money line too for the Jets.”
100%The final score settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 3
- The Packers finish fourth in the NFC North.
A restated preseason bet.
“I had Green Bay finishing fourth in that division”
100%Official division standings give a clear yes or no on 4th place.
How it’s graded: Green Bay finishes 4th (last) in the NFC North in the final 2026 regular-season standings, with NFL tiebreakers applied. Source: NFL.com official final 2026 NFC North standings. Settles: End of the 2026 NFL regular season.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Packers miss the playoffs.
A restated preseason bet.
“I had Green Bay to miss the playoffs”
100%Final playoff field settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Currently 2–2, 4th in the NFC North (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Packers finish under their preseason win total.
Restating his preseason futures against Green Bay.
“I had Green Bay way under their win total.”
80%Final wins settle it; the exact win-total number wasn't stated.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
- The Jets–Packers line moves below Jets +3.5 by Sunday.
“I think that line's going to go down”
90%The ESPN closing line versus +3.5 settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Jets cover +3.5 against the Packers.
Ringer 107, Week 2 pick.
“So I am going to take Jets plus three and a half.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Lost by 3
- Jets–Packers goes under the total.
“I like the under in that game too”
80%The final score settles it, but no total was stated (heavy rain expected).
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Jets–Packers total moves down before kickoff.
“And the under will go down.”
85%Opening and closing totals are checkable; no number was given.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Broncos win 10 or 11 games.
Restating his preseason view against a 9.5 win total.
“now I only had them winning 10, 11 games most”
90%Final record settles a stated range.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the AFC West (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Broncos cover −2.5 against the Jaguars.
Ringer 107, Week 2 pick.
“So you're taking Broncos minus two and a half?”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Won by 7
- Bo Nix plays poorly for the first month of the season.
“I think there's a chance he might just not be good for the first month of the season”
35%'Not good' needs a stat proxy and is hedged with 'a chance'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- 6-point teaser: Buccaneers −2.5 against the Browns and Jaguars +8.5 against the Broncos.
Ringer 107, Week 2, his 6-point teaser.
“And if he's going to beat my tease of bucks down to minus two and a half with Jags plus eight and a half, God bless him.”
100%Settles from the final scores; every leg has to cover its teased line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: 2-leg teaser
- Deshaun Watson never starts another game after Week 2.
“I don't think we'll ever see him quarterback another team after this week”
80%Game logs settle it, but "another team" is loosely worded and it stays open all season.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Buccaneers beat the Browns (moneyline parlay leg).
Plans moneyline parlays built around Tampa, likely with the 49ers.
“I have to figure out the, the money line parlays that I'm going to put the bucks into”
100%The final score settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Lost by 4
- The 49ers beat the Dolphins (moneyline parlay leg).
A moneyline parlay leg alongside the Bucs.
“something like the, the Niners, uh, and, and, and the Bucs”
95%One game settles it; 'something like' hedges the leg slightly.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Won by 22
- 6-point teaser: Eagles −1 against the Titans and Eagles–Titans under 45.5.
Ringer 107, Week 2, his 6-point teaser.
“I'm allowed to tease the Eagles from seven down to one.”
100%Settles from the final scores; every leg has to cover its teased line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: 2-leg teaser
- The Titans score fewer than 17 points against the Eagles.
“I don't see the Titans getting to 17 points in this game.”
100%Graded as: Titans finish with 16 or fewer points in their Week 2 2026 game against the Eagles.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: On Sept 20, 2026 the Eagles beat the Titans 24-20 in Nashville. Tennessee scored 20, above the 17-point threshold, after a late 33-yard field goal put them ahead 20-17.
- Graded by: ESPN ↗ Eagles 24-20 Titans (Sep 20, 2026) Final Score - ESPN · Sep 20, 2026
- The Texans win the AFC South.
An existing futures bet.
“exposure to Houston to win their division”
100%Final standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the AFC South (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bengals win the AFC North.
An existing futures bet.
“Cincinnati to win the AFC North”
100%Final standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Currently 2–2, 4th in the AFC North (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Chargers miss the playoffs.
“thing to bet the Chargers is to miss the playoffs”
100%Final playoff field settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the AFC West (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Buccaneers win the NFC South.
“Tampa's still plus 150 for the NFC South, which to me seems like a steal”
75%The division winner is in the final standings; framed as value, not a firm call.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the NFC South (as of 2026-10-05)
- The 49ers win the NFC West.
An existing futures bet at about 3–1.
“I have the Niners already close to three to one”
95%Final standings settle it; the market is inferred from the division-odds discussion.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Currently 4–0, 1st in the NFC West, the NFC 2 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Buccaneers win the NFC South.
Bucs at +150 for the NFC South.
“I'll just keep throwing money at Tampa”
100%Final standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the NFC South (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Buccaneers win at least 10 games.
“I think they're going to win 10 games”
100%Final record settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the NFC South (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Giants lose to the Rams.
“They probably lose to the Rams, right?”
100%A single final score gives a clear yes or no.
How it’s graded: The Giants lose to the Rams in their 2026 Week 2 game; a Giants win or a tie grades as wrong. Source: Official NFL final score (NFL.com or ESPN box score). Settles: Final whistle of the 2026 Week 2 Giants-Rams game.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Lost by 22
- The Giants go on a winning run after the Rams game.
Next up after the Rams: Titans, Cardinals, at Washington, Saints.
“They're going to go on a run after that Rams game.”
55%'A run' needs a proxy, e.g. winning most of the Weeks 3–6 games.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
- The Packers miss the playoffs.
Pitching a Chargers + Packers no-playoffs parlay.
“Like right now, I would say no”
95%Final playoff field settles it; hedged with "right now."
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 4th in the NFC North (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Chiefs win at least 11 games.
Bet after Week 1.
“I bet them over 10 and a half wins”
100%Final record settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Currently 4–0, 1st in the AFC West, the AFC 1 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Chiefs win the AFC West.
“but I bet them to win the division”
100%Final standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Currently 4–0, 1st in the AFC West, the AFC 1 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Chiefs make the playoffs.
“I bet them to make the playoffs”
100%Final playoff field settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Currently 4–0, 1st in the AFC West, the AFC 1 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Patriots cover −4.5 against the Steelers.
Ringer 107, Week 2 pick.
“I'm taking the Patriots minus four and a half at home against the Steelers.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Won by 17
- The Patriots beat the Steelers by 7 or more.
“And I just think they win by seven plus.”
100%The final score settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 17
- The 49ers cover −13.5 against the Dolphins.
Ringer 107, Week 2 pick.
“It's San Francisco laying less than two touchdowns at home against Miami.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Won by 22
- Donald doesn't play for the Rams against the Giants.
“I don't even think we're going to see him.”
80%The box score settles it; hedged with 'I don't even think'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Aaron Donald is in the box score
- The Patriots cover −4.5 against the Steelers.
Sunday-pick lean.
“It's a decent chance it's the Pats.”
75%Settles on the spread, but it's only a 'decent chance' lean.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Won by 17
- The Panthers cover −2.5 against the Falcons.
Sunday-pick lean.
“I'm probably leaning toward the Panthers.”
60%Settles on the spread, but a soft lean he expects to talk himself out of.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 31
- The Raiders cover +6.5 against the Chargers.
Sunday-pick lean; he wants the line at 7.
“I might be leaning toward the Raiders.”
55%Settles on the spread, but hedged and conditional on the line reaching 7.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 12
- UCLA covers as the favorite against Purdue.
Bill is attending the game Saturday.
“lay some points with that one”
75%Covering settles on the spread, but no line was stated.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
