Takes graded
8–8
50% hit rate
Takes
129
across 7 episodes
Avg. gradeability
87%
Mostly checkable calls
Speaker attribution: average 96% confidence.
Sal’s takes
Graded so far: 8–8 (50%)
Transcripts don’t label speakers, so each take has a speaker confidence score for who said it (hover it for the reasoning). Each take also has a gradeability score: 100% means it can be cleanly confirmed or refuted, and 0% means pure opinion. Click a tier to filter.
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026Three NFC West teams make the playoffs.
“I think there's three NFC West teams in the playoffs again”
100%The playoff field is public record and counting NFC West qualifiers is a clear yes or no.
How it’s graded: At least three of the four NFC West teams (ARI, LAR, SF, SEA) qualify for the 2026-27 NFL playoffs. Source: NFL.com final 2026 regular-season standings and playoff bracket. Settles: End of the 2026 NFL regular season.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The NFC North sends two teams to the playoffs.
“And I think the North will get two.”
100%The final standings give a public, yes-or-no count of NFC North playoff teams.
How it’s graded: Exactly two of CHI, MIN, DET and GB make the 2026 NFL playoffs, counting division winners and wild cards. Source: NFL.com final 2026 regular-season standings and playoff seeds. Settles: End of the 2026 NFL regular season.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The NFC East sends exactly one team to the playoffs.
“And then I still think there's one in the East.”
90%Number of NFC East playoff teams settles from final standings.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Vikings go about 14-3.
“I guess we're just going to have to get used to them going like 14 -3”
70%Win total settles it; 'like 14-3' is read here as 13-15 wins, and the tone is half sarcastic.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 4–0, 1st in the NFC North, the NFC 1 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Chargers miss the playoffs.
Official cross-off of the week; Sal agreed.
“look, they're not making it”
100%Playoff field is black and white.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the AFC West (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026Josh Allen does not win MVP.
“And they might not go to Josh Allen, who's still favored, according to FanDuel, to win MVP at plus 230.”
75%The MVP winner settles it, but 'might' hedges it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026A 9-8 record is enough to win the NFC East.
“I honestly still think nine and eight can win this division.”
100%The division winner's win total is a public number, so it is a clear yes or no.
How it’s graded: The 2026 NFC East champion finishes the regular season with 9 or fewer wins. Source: NFL.com final 2026 regular-season standings. Settles: End of the 2026 NFL regular season.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- Ringer Wise Guys · Oct 5, 2026Falcons-Saints ends around 28-24
“we enjoy a 28, 24 fantasy feast”
60%The final score settles it, but the score is offered loosely as an illustration.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Ringer Wise Guys · Oct 5, 2026Falcons-Saints goes over 23.5 second-half points
“So yeah, I might blind bet that as well over 23”
90%Second-half scoring is in the box score; the bet is hedged with 'might'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Ringer Wise Guys · Oct 5, 2026The Cowboys win the NFC East
“I said they would win the tiebreaker and I, I I'll stand by that”
100%The division winner is on record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the NFC East (as of 2026-10-05)
- Ringer Wise Guys · Oct 5, 2026The NFC East winner finishes 9-8
“that division will be one at nine and eight”
95%The final standings show the winner's record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026No AFC team wins 12 or more games.
Bill asked whether anybody gets to 12 wins in the AFC.
“I don't think it's 12.”
100%Final standings show every AFC team's win total, so the result is a clear yes or no.
How it’s graded: No AFC team finishes the 2026 NFL regular season with 12 or more wins; ties do not count as wins. Source: Final 2026 NFL regular-season standings (NFL.com or ESPN). Settles: End of the 2026 NFL regular season.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Broncos win fewer than 11 games.
“they're not 11 -12 win caliber team anymore”
100%Settles automatically from the final regular-season standings
How it’s graded: The Denver Broncos finish the 2026 regular season with 10 or fewer wins. Source: ESPN final regular-season standings (saved in data/standings.js). Settles: After the 2026 regular season ends (Week 18).
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the AFC West (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Broncos win more than six games.
Asked whether the Broncos are only a six-win team.
“I would say no way”
90%Final win total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the AFC West (as of 2026-10-05)
- Ringer Wise Guys · Oct 5, 2026Alabama makes the College Football Playoff
“They're a playoff team.”
95%The CFP field is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Ringer Wise Guys · Oct 5, 2026Alabama wins 11 or more games
Alabama's win total was 10.5 with the under at -142.
“I would not take that under.”
60%Win total 10.5 settles cleanly, but it's a lean against the under rather than a stated bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Ringer Wise Guys · Oct 5, 2026Texas A&M upsets Mizzou on the road this week
Sal's 'Seesaw SEC' theory.
“take Texas A &M to upset Mizzou on the road this week”
100%The game result settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Ringer Wise Guys · Oct 5, 2026Jeremiah Smith wins the Heisman
“I gave out him and Malachi Tony, who's 30 to one.”
95%The Heisman winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Ringer Wise Guys · Oct 5, 2026Mensah wins the Heisman
“But Menza might be one you want to look at at seven to one.”
80%The winner is on record, but the call is hedged ('might be one you want to look at').
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026Neither the Colts nor the Commanders make the playoffs.
“It was two teams that are probably not going to make the playoffs.”
85%Playoff field is public; "probably" hedges it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026Oregon fails to cover −11.5 against UCLA.
“I would not take them laying 11 and a half for sure”
85%Cover is black and white; framed as a pass, not a bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Seahawks beat the 49ers.
“It's where they make their move in”
90%Game result settles it; the phrasing is a lean.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026Brock Purdy becomes the MVP favorite if the 49ers win at Seattle.
“Birdie's the MVP favorite if he pulls this off somehow.”
60%Conditional on a 49ers win, then the MVP odds have to be checked by hand.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Patriots cover −3.5 against the Raiders.
“I feel like this line's too low.”
75%Cover is black and white; "line's too low" is an implied lean.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026Jacoby Brissett throws for 440 yards against the Lions.
“This is where Brissette goes for 440.”
90%The stat line settles it, though it's likely hyperbole.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Browns' strong start doesn't last.
“I wasn't buying this Browns thing”
35%Vague; the Browns' record from here on is the only proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026Lamar Jackson plays against Atlanta despite his ankle.
“Lamar, I know he has an ankle thing, but he'll play.”
100%Whether he played is in the box score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Brewers beat the Rays in the World Series.
Pays 10-1 on FanDuel.
“I'm going Brewers over the Rays”
100%World Series result is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Rays finish with 100 wins.
“And the Rays are going to have a hundred wins probably after tomorrow.”
85%Final win total settles it; 'probably' hedges it slightly.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Ringer Wise Guys · Sep 29, 2026The Commanders cover +3.5 against the Colts
“Commanders plus three and a half.”
100%The box score against +3.5 settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Lost by 17
- Ringer Wise Guys · Sep 29, 2026The Yankees–Red Sox games are low scoring
“These will be low scoring with judge and Contreras out potential out.”
65%'Low scoring' needs a proxy; graded as the games going under their totals.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Ringer Wise Guys · Sep 29, 2026The Red Sox beat the Yankees in the wild-card series
Wild-card series, Red Sox +122.
“I'm going to have money on the Red Sox”
100%The series result settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Ringer Wise Guys · Sep 29, 2026Padres–Cubs Game 1 goes over 7.5
“I'm going to take the over seven and a half between the Padres and Cubs.”
100%The final score against 7.5 settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Ringer Wise Guys · Sep 29, 2026The Phillies don't play the Dodgers in the next round
Joking about Dabbundo's LA trip if the Phillies get hot.
“Phillies in the next two weeks.”
90%The playoff bracket settles it, but it may be ribbing.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026Robert Saleh is the first NFL head coach fired this season.
Bill asked who the first coach fired would be.
“but I think it's going to be Salah”
95%The order of firings is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026Todd Bowles is not fired by the Buccaneers the day after the game.
Bill floated that Todd Bowles could be fired the next day.
“he's not getting fired tomorrow”
85%A firing the next day is public record; 'tomorrow' is a little loose.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Saints win the NFC South (the 4 seed).
After Bill said the Saints could sneak in as a 7 seed.
“Oh, well, the Saints are going to have a four.”
80%Settles from final standings, though it was half a joke.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 1–2, 3rd in the NFC South (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Bills win the rest of their games.
Said after the Chargers failed to steal a sloppy Bills game.
“Otherwise, they're just going to run the table.”
75%Going 17–0 is checkable in the standings, but the claim sounds partly hyperbolic.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 3–1, 1st in the AFC East, the AFC 3 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Vikings are a good team this season.
Reversing his earlier call that the Vikings would struggle.
“Like, they're going to be good.”
45%'Good' needs a proxy such as a winning record or a playoff berth.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Texans don't get the AFC's 1 seed.
Walking back their August pick of Houston as the AFC 1 seed.
“probably not going to get the one seed like we predicted in August”
85%Final seeding settles it; 'probably' hedges.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Raiders beat the Chiefs (moneyline bet).
Chiefs −4.5 at the Raiders.
“I'm going to just bet the money line.”
100%Moneyline bet; settles from the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Lost by 3
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026Baker Mayfield doesn't play against the Packers.
Baker Mayfield dislocated his thumb late in Week 3.
“He's not playing.”
85%The box score shows whether Mayfield played; the quick self-hedge lowers it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Baker Mayfield isn’t in the box score
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Ravens beat the Titans.
The line was Ravens −11.5; floated as a teaser leg.
“So, the Ravens are going to win.”
95%Settles from the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Won by 6
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Seahawks beat the Chargers.
Floated as a teaser leg.
“The Seahawks are going to win.”
95%Settles from the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Won by 7
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Ravens, Seahawks and Vikings all cover in a 10-point teaser.
Ten-point teaser idea off Ravens −11.5, Seahawks −6.5 and Vikings −9.5; Bill then bans Kyler Murray from teasers.
“And the one you're about to say could be the third.”
75%Each leg grades from the scores, but it's a teaser idea, not a confirmed bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Vikings beat the Dolphins by 10 or more.
Brian Flores, now Minnesota's DC, is suing the Dolphins.
“Oh, Flores is going to crush”
90%Graded here as a 10+ point win.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Won by 5
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Red Sox beat the Yankees in the Wild Card series.
Red Sox are about +145 in a best-of-three Wild Card series.
“The one I would take a shot at is your team.”
85%The series result settles it; it's a 'take a shot' lean.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Lynx beat the Liberty in Game 2.
Leg of a tentative moneyline parlay.
“Lynx, Game 2, Vikings,”
95%The Game 2 result settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Vikings beat the Dolphins.
Moneyline parlay leg alongside Lynx Game 2 and the Chiefs.
“Vikings”
100%A straight-up result settles it from the box score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Won by 5
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Chiefs beat the Raiders.
Leg of a moneyline parlay.
“and Chiefs.”
95%Settles from the final score; the parlay was tentative.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Won by 3
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026UCLA beats Oregon in Week 6.
Proposed as a parlay leg.
“Can we throw UCLA at Oregon in week six?”
90%Settles from the Week 6 final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Eagles are the 2–0 team likeliest to miss the playoffs
“Philly would be the one I would worry”
40%Only a worry; graded as the Eagles missing the playoffs
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026Mike McDaniel is the first coordinator fired this season.
“especially with McDaniel, who I'm stumping for to be the first coordinator fired”
85%The first coordinator fired is public record; there's no timeframe beyond this season.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Chargers have seven losses by Halloween.
“sit back and collect when they have their seventh loss on Halloween.”
85%Checkable from the Chargers' record on Oct. 31.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026Harbaugh is still the Chargers' coach after their next seven games.
Asked whether Harbaugh is still coaching after the Chargers' next seven games.
“I think they'll respect him enough to keep him around.”
75%Checkable from whether Harbaugh is still coaching after the next seven games.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Eagles go about 14–3
“And they're going to be like 14 -3 because that's just how they played ball.”
65%Half sarcastic, but the final record is checkable; graded as 13–4 or better
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026At least one holder fumbles a field goal snap in an NFL game in October.
Bill offered a hypothetical prop: over/under 0.5 holder-fumbled field goal snaps across October.
“Oh, I think I'd go over it.”
55%Settled by whether any holder fumbles a field goal snap in October; there's no easy public tally.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026Caleb Williams plays again this season.
Said after Caleb Williams's hamstring injury.
“i know he's not done for the year”
85%Checkable by whether he plays again this season.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Cowboys have a disappointing season.
“It's just going to be a dumb team again, I think.”
35%"Dumb team" needs a proxy such as missing the playoffs.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Patriots score 40 against the Dolphins.
“You'll put up 40 against the Dolphins and who else?”
50%The score of the Pats–Dolphins game settles it, but it's half a joke with no date.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026Trey Lance starts a game this season.
During Bill's backup-QB power rankings.
“we might be seeing Trey Lance”
60%Checkable if Lance starts, but 'might' and 'soon enough' are vague.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Packers beat the Falcons (a teaser leg from −6.5).
Packers −6.5 against the Falcons on Thursday.
“Get your free teaser leg here.”
85%Graded as Packers −6.5 teased six points to −0.5; the teaser size is assumed.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Lost by 21
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026Brandon Aubrey misses an extra point in the Brazil game against the Ravens.
“He's going to be missing extra points and shit.”
75%The box score shows any missed extra points; it's half a joke.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Red Sox play the Yankees in the first round of the playoffs.
“they're playing the Yankees Almost definitely”
90%The playoff bracket settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Red Sox are underdogs in their first-round series against the Yankees.
“you'll still be an underdog.”
85%The series odds settle it, assuming the matchup happens.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Rangers miss the playoffs.
Texas was −170 to make the playoffs.
“I'm thinking they're going to go the other way.”
90%Final standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The Bills are a good team this season.
“So, yeah, they're going to be good.”
45%'Good' needs a proxy like record or playoffs.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026Jim Harbaugh is among the first three or four head coaches fired this season.
First coach fired: offered LaFleur, Bowles and Jim Harbaugh.
“i would say he's top three three or four at this point”
35%Ranks a coach's firing odds; settles only loosely if he's fired early.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026Dijon Stribling wins Offensive Rookie of the Year
“So Dijon Stribling to win offensive rookie of the year.”
95%A futures bet from their preseason futures draft, restated here; awards are a matter of record
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026AJ Brown scores 10+ touchdowns
“A.J. Brown, 10 -plus touchdowns”
95%A futures bet from their preseason futures draft, restated here; season touchdown total
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The Colts, Browns, Giants, Jets and Cardinals all miss the playoffs.
Regrettable futures; bet at +156.
“Indianapolis, Cleveland, Giants, Jets, and Arizona, no playoffs, was plus 156.”
100%Final playoff field settles all five legs.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026Justin Herbert wins MVP.
Regrettable futures.
“I said Herbert MVP.”
100%MVP winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026Matthew Stafford leads the league in passing yards.
Regrettable futures; bet at 5-1. Sal now expects Caleb Williams to go nuts.
“Stafford most passing yards.”
100%League passing-yards leader is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026Caleb Williams throws for more yards than Matthew Stafford this season.
Explaining why his Stafford most-passing-yards future looks bad.
“I think Caleb Williams is just going to go nuts with this one”
70%Season passing-yard totals compare the two, but "go nuts" is loose.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026Jayden Daniels wins Comeback Player of the Year.
Regrettable futures; bet at +750.
“Jaden Daniels comeback player of the year plus 750”
100%Award winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026Jacoby Lane wins Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Restated future.
“I also had Jacoby Lane for Offensive Rookie of the Year”
100%Award winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The Bears play the most exciting, high-scoring games in the NFC North.
“they're going to be the most exciting NFC North team for sure”
20%"Most exciting" is taste; combined points per game is only a rough proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The Bears break the single-season points record.
Ben Johnson wants the points record; the Bears need 34 a game.
“I mean, that's doable.”
75%Season points total against the record (606); 'doable' hedges.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The NFC South winner finishes 7–10 or worse.
Restated preseason call after the NFC South went 0-4.
“predicted that the winner would go 7 -10 and I think I was just a little bit generous there”
85%The division winner's record settles it; he now says it could go as low as 6-11 or 4-13.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026Robert Saleh is the first coach fired
“is it a wild card to say Salah could be a first coach fired?”
60%Firings are a matter of record, but “could” hedges it
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The Buccaneers cover a teased −1.5 against the Browns.
Teaser idea: Bucs −7.5 teased six points.
“That is looking teaser -ish.”
70%Settles against the teased line, but it's a lean, not a placed bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Lost by 4
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The Jets beat the Packers.
Every year one 0-2 team and one 2-0 team shouldn't be.
“This could be the one.”
80%The final score settles it; 'could be' hedges.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Lost by 3
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026Bill gets another dog within two years
“you'll get one within the next two years”
45%A two-year window, only checkable if Bill mentions it
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026Jimmy Kimmel doesn't win the Emmy outright.
On the next night's Emmys; Sal says Colbert won most of the technical Emmys.
“Yeah, it's a long shot.”
85%The Emmy result settles it, but his tie caveat hedges it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The 49ers cover +3.5 against the Rams.
Asked to choose between Pats +3.5 and Niners +3.5 for the Australia game, he says San Francisco.
“This is the healthiest the 49ers will be all year.”
80%The final score settles it, but this is a lean rather than a firm pick.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Won by 20
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Bills cover −1.5 at Houston.
Sal guessed Bills −1.5 at Houston and it matched the line.
“I think it's a little bit of a break for Buffalo getting this defense before they get in a rhythm.”
70%The score settles it, but he argues for Buffalo rather than betting it outright.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Won by 5
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Bears cover −2.5 at Carolina.
“I'll tell you, I'm going to go with the Bears here.”
90%A clear side that settles from the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Won by 22
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Aaron Rodgers looks good against the Falcons
“to look good.”
45%“Look good” needs a stand-in, e.g. his yards per attempt
Who said it (85%): Sal reading his own Steelers–Falcons guess
Result: Rodgers averaged 5.5 yards per attempt in a punchless Week 1 win (The Smashmouth Giants, 00:57:56).
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Jets finish third in the AFC East.
Futures draft, even odds; he calls it his favorite bet.
“the new york jets to come in third place at even odds”
100%Final AFC East standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Patriots and Bills both win 10 or more games.
Futures draft, explaining his Jets-third pick.
“i think the pats and bills are 10 plus”
95%The standings settle whether both reach 10 wins.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Dolphins win 4 or fewer games.
Futures draft, explaining his Jets-third pick.
“i think the dolphins are four minus”
100%The standings settle the win total.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the AFC East (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Jets win 6 games.
“I have the Jets at six wins.”
90%An exact win projection, checkable in the standings.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 1–3, 3rd in the AFC East (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Chargers lose in the first round of the playoffs.
Futures draft, +172.
“Chargers get eliminated in the first round of the playoffs plus 172.”
100%The playoff bracket settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Chargers win the AFC West.
Part of his case that the Chargers win the division as the 3 seed, then lose at home.
“They'll enter as a three seed after winning the division and they're going to lose at home.”
100%Final division standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the AFC West (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Chiefs are the AFC's 6 seed and beat the Chargers in the first round.
“I have losing to the six seeded Chiefs in round one.”
90%The 6 seed is checkable; the matchup adds a condition.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 4–0, 1st in the AFC West, the AFC 1 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The NFC West has more wins than the NFC South, and the AFC West has more than the AFC North.
Futures draft combination bet, +165.
“NFC West to have more wins than the NFC South.”
100%Division win totals settle both legs.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Rams win the NFC West, Chargers make the playoffs, Cardinals lose their first 5 (+850)
“Chargers make the playoffs and Cardinals lose their first five.”
95%Settles over the season; the Cardinals leg needed an 0–5 start
Who said it (80%): Sal’s turn in the alternating futures draft
Result: Arizona beat the Chargers in Week 1 (The Broken Chargers, 00:22:07), so the Cardinals couldn’t start 0–5.
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Zac Taylor wins Coach of the Year.
Futures draft, +2700; he says Taylor is either first coach fired or coach of the year.
“But Zach Taylor, coach of the year at plus 2,700.”
100%The award winner settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Zac Taylor is the first head coach fired.
Asked who the first coach fired will be if not Taylor.
“It's going to be Zach Taylor.”
95%Public record shows who is fired first; he hedged it against his own Coach of the Year bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Stribling (49ers) wins Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Futures draft, +850.
“Stribling for the 49ers plus 850.”
100%The award winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Puka Nacua finishes under 107.5 receptions.
Futures draft.
“Puka under 107 and a half receptions.”
100%The season reception total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Packers are the NFC's 2 seed.
Futures draft, +1000.
“Green Bay to be the two seed at plus 1,000.”
100%Final playoff seeding settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 2–2, 4th in the NFC North (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Packers win the NFC North.
“I have them to win a division at plus 280”
90%The division standings settle it; it was stated as his projection.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 2–2, 4th in the NFC North (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Lions win the NFC North.
“I have the Lions.”
95%The division standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the NFC North (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Trevor Lawrence throws for 4,000+ yards.
Futures draft, +160.
“I'm going to go T -Law 4K plus 160.”
100%Season passing yards settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Christian Watson catches 10+ touchdowns (+340)
“Christian Watson, 10 -plus receiving touchdowns is plus 340.”
100%Christian Watson’s season receiving touchdowns
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Vance Joseph wins Assistant Coach of the Year.
Futures draft, Assistant Coach of the Year at +1100.
“And so I think he wins it this year.”
100%The award winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Malik Willis leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards.
Futures draft, +500.
“Most quarterback rushing yards is plus 500.”
100%League rushing leaders settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026AJ Brown catches 10+ touchdowns (+240)
“All right, I'm going to do A.J. Brown 10 -plus receiving touchdowns.”
100%AJ Brown’s season receiving touchdowns
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Colts, Browns, Giants, Jets and Cardinals all miss the playoffs (+156)
“I'm taking the Colts… I'm taking the Cardinals”
95%Playoff field; one berth among the five loses it
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Chargers win more games than the Vikings (−130)
“Chargers more wins than the Vikings.”
100%Final win totals
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Chargers win the AFC West
Explaining his Chargers-over-Vikings future (−130)
“I have the Bolts winning the AFC West”
100%Settles automatically from the final regular-season standings
How it’s graded: The Los Angeles Chargers finish first in their division in the final 2026 regular-season standings (tiebreakers included). Source: ESPN final regular-season standings (saved in data/standings.js). Settles: After the 2026 regular season ends (Week 18).
Who said it (100%): Confirmed by an editor: Sal, continuing his own Chargers-over-Vikings future
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the AFC West (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Bijan Robinson leads the NFL in rushing yards.
Futures draft, +750.
“Most rushing yards, plus 750.”
100%League rushing leaders settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Raiders finish 4th in the AFC West, the Jets 3rd in the AFC East and the Cardinals 4th in the NFC West.
Futures draft exact-finish parlay, +229.
“this is an exact finish parlay Raiders 4th why not Jets 3rd Cardinals 4th plus 229”
100%The final division standings settle all three legs.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Colts win 6 or fewer games.
Futures draft, +210.
“the Colts under 6.5 plus 210”
100%The final win total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 2–2, 2nd in the AFC South (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Texans win more games than the Eagles (+120)
“and that is the Texans to have more wins than the Eagles.”
100%Final win totals
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Ravens rookie Jacoby Lane wins Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Futures draft, Offensive Rookie of the Year at +2200.
“Jacoby Lane on the AFC side.”
100%The award winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Parker Washington catches 5+ touchdowns.
Futures draft, −122.
“Let me do Parker Washington over four and a half touchdown receptions, minus 122.”
100%The season receiving TD total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Jalen Hurts runs for 10+ touchdowns.
Futures draft, +145.
“Hurts 10 -plus rushing touchdowns, plus 145.”
100%The season rushing TD total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Dolphins finish with the NFL's worst record.
Futures draft, +220.
“Dolphins' worst record.”
100%Final league standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Patriots are the AFC's 6 seed.
Futures draft, Patriots 6 seed at +1000.
“Pat succeed is plus a thousand”
100%The final seeding settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 2–2, 2nd in the AFC East, the AFC 7 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Patriots make the playoffs.
“I like them to make the playoffs.”
95%The playoff field settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 2–2, 2nd in the AFC East, the AFC 7 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Justin Herbert wins MVP.
Futures draft, 11-1.
“that 11 -1 for Justin Herbert for MVP is a fun bet.”
100%The MVP winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Jayden Daniels wins Comeback Player of the Year.
Futures draft, Comeback Player of the Year at +750.
“I have Jaden Daniels at plus 750”
100%The award winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Bills win more games than the Chiefs.
Futures draft, −120.
“Bills more wins than the Chiefs, minus 120”
100%The two win totals settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Caleb Downs wins Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Futures draft, +700.
“Caleb Downs Defensive Rookie of the Year plus 700.”
100%The award winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Matthew Stafford leads the NFL in passing yards.
Futures draft, +500.
“Most passing yards, plus 500”
100%League passing leaders settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Daniel Jones throws 18 or fewer touchdown passes.
Futures draft, under 18.5 TD passes.
“Under 18 and a half touchdowns.”
100%The season TD pass total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Rams beat the Bills in the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl exact-matchup pick at +3050.
“is the Rams over Bills at plus 3,050.”
100%The Super Bowl result settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
