The Bill Simmons PodcastThe 49ers Crush the Jet-Lag Bowl, Rams Overreactions, Bills-Texans, and Week 1 NFL Picks
TL;DR
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- Live on Netflix after the 49ers beat the Rams 27–7 in Melbourne. The Rams’ fly-in-the-night-before plan flops, Stafford looks old, Myles Garrett barely shows up, and Shanahan’s offense cooks.
- Ringer 107 is back with new rules: each host makes four Thursday picks, one of them a 6-point teaser, plus a fifth pick on Sunday. If one host likes the other’s pick, he can “piggyback” on it.
- The first piggyback: both take the Cowboys −2.5 at the Giants. Bill and House also both tease the Jaguars, Bill takes the Bucs and Steelers, and House takes the Texans and the Jets.
- Bill and House rage about Alcaraz–Shelton starting after 11 p.m. on the East Coast and argue for best-of-three until the US Open quarterfinals.
Segments
4▸
00:00
Intro
Bill and House start live on Netflix about 25 minutes after the Melbourne game ends.
00:01
49ers–Rams reactions
A failed Stafford sneak at 17–7 swings it, and the 49ers answer with a 99-yard drive. House says the sleep talk insults a good 49ers team. Bill takes the overreaction that Stafford looks washed; House says the Rams super-team buzz is dead. Mike Evans and Deebo look great, and the 49ers’ backup running back impresses. Bill’s wife learns about the Wednesday game before Thanksgiving.
00:24
Ringer 107 Week 1 picks
New format: four Thursday picks each (one a 6-point teaser), a fifth pick on social on Sunday, and piggybacks tracked all year. Bill teases the Texans and Jaguars, and House teases the Jaguars and Lions. Bill takes the Bucs +3.5, the Cowboys −2.5 and the Steelers −4.5; House takes the Texans +1.5 and the Jets +1.5, and piggybacks on the Cowboys. Both lean Broncos +2.5 for Sunday. House finishes with moneyline parlays: Eagles and Steelers, then adding the Chargers and UCLA.
01:13
U.S. Open thoughts
Alcaraz–Shelton, the best match of the tournament, finishes around 3:30 a.m. Eastern. House blames the Pegula–Navarro match before it and ESPN. Bill wants shorter matches, with best-of-three before the quarterfinals.
Predictions on the record
Graded so far: 10–11 (48%)
Transcripts don’t label speakers, so each take has a speaker confidence score for who said it (hover it for the reasoning). Each take also has a gradeability score: 100% means it can be cleanly confirmed or refuted, and 0% means pure opinion. Click a tier to filter.
- The 49ers win the NFC West.
A preseason future he restates after the win over the Rams.
“them to win this division”
100%Settles from the final NFC West standings.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Currently 4–0, 1st in the NFC West, the NFC 2 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The 49ers face Drew Lock instead of Sam Darnold when they play Seattle.
“they might face Drew Locke”
55%Hedged with "might" and depends on Darnold's injury timeline.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
- Sam Darnold misses more than one game.
“the question is whether it's going to be multiple… It seems likely.”
90%Games missed are on the public record; slightly hedged.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
- Sam Darnold misses 4 to 6 games
“My guy's missing four to six.”
80%Games missed are a matter of record
Who said it (60%): An unlabeled interjection after House’s Darnold update; it’s probably Bill
Result: Darnold was back starting by Week 3 (Drake Mayday, 00:37:36), missing one game.
- Matthew Stafford recovers from a bad Week 1 and plays fine this season.
“He'll probably be fine.”
30%"Fine" is vague, hedged with "probably", and has no timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Week 1 games mostly go under their totals.
Two underdogs and two unders in the first two games.
“It's an all -time under week.”
55%Needs a tally of overs and unders for Week 1; 'all-time' is vague.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
- The Texans cover +1.5 against the Bills.
Ringer 107, Week 1 pick.
“the first pick here is the houston texans at home catching points from the buffalo Bills”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Lost by 5
- The Texans have the best defense in the NFL this season.
“They're the best defense, in my opinion, even with the outstanding performance that we saw last night from the Seattle Seahawks.”
50%'Best defense' needs a stat proxy such as points or EPA allowed.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
- David Montgomery outperforms his fantasy draft position.
“who is kind of a sneaky fantasy guy”
35%"Sneaky fantasy guy" has no clear fantasy-rank threshold.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Keyshawn Booty makes a notable play against the Bills.
“And I just know he's going to do something in this Texans game.”
35%'Do something' is vague; a touchdown or a big play would have to stand in.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bills again have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.
Right after noting Buffalo had one of the league's worst run defenses last season.
“I kind of expect to see the same”
55%Needs a run-defense ranking (rush yards allowed) as a proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
- The Texans have the best defense in the NFL this season.
“I think they have the best defense in the league”
55%"Best defense" needs a proxy such as points or EPA allowed over the season.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Texans beat the Bills
“i think they're gonna win”
100%This is a binary outright-win claim on a single linkable game, so the automatic win rule settles it exactly. The spread hedge is excluded by definition.
How it’s graded: Correct if the Houston Texans (NFL:HOU) score more points than the Buffalo Bills (NFL:BUF) in their Week 1 2026 NFL regular-season game, with overtime included. Incorrect if the Bills win or the game ends in a tie. The +7.5 point-spread hedge is not graded. The take is the outright win he states. Source: Official final score of the Texans-Bills Week 1 2026 game from the NFL's official gamebook or NFL.com, or ESPN as a fallback.. Settles: When the Week 1 2026 Texans-Bills game goes final, including any overtime. Expected about Sept 13-14, 2026. If the game is postponed, it settles when the rescheduled game goes final. If it is cancelled and never played, the take is voided..
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Lost by 5
- The Texans are the best team in the AFC.
“in general i think they're the best afc team”
50%'Best' needs a proxy such as AFC seed or record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Jaguars win 8 or 9 games.
“They'll be somewhere 9 -8, 8 -9, whatever, but this is a nice spot for them.”
85%Win total settles from standings; 'somewhere' and 'whatever' hedge the range.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 3–1, 1st in the AFC South, the AFC 2 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- Deshaun Watson starts only Weeks 1 and 2 for Cleveland
“more chances in our lives to bet against Deshaun”
70%Watson’s starts are checkable, though it’s half a joke
Who said it (90%): Bill on betting against Deshaun Watson
Result: Bill and Sal called Week 2 the last chance to bet against Watson (The Smashmouth Giants, 01:17:35).
- 6-point teaser: Texans +7.5 against the Bills and Jaguars −2.5 against the Browns.
Ringer 107, Week 1, his 6-point teaser.
“So my teaser is Texans plus seven and a half Jaguars minus two and a half.”
100%Settles from the final scores; every leg has to cover its teased line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: 2-leg teaser
- 6-point teaser: Jaguars −2.5 against the Browns and Lions −0.5 against the Saints.
Ringer 107, Week 1, his 6-point teaser.
“So Lions winning outright at home against the New Orleans Saints as a teaser leg.”
100%Settles from the final scores; every leg has to cover its teased line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: 2-leg teaser
- The Lions' defense gets torched by an opposing quarterback in one of Weeks 1–4.
“There's going to be a week in these first four weeks when they get absolutely torched by a QB.”
50%'Absolutely torched' needs a proxy, such as an opposing QB passing for 300+ yards in Weeks 1–4.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Cardinals get a lot of backdoor covers this season.
“they might be the kings of the back door this upcoming season with LeFleur”
30%'Kings of the back door' has no clean record to check.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
- The Buccaneers beat the Bengals outright.
A moneyline lean on top of his Bucs +3.5 pick (Bucs +168).
“I like the money line, too, in this game house.”
95%A moneyline lean; settles from the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 6
- The Buccaneers cover +3.5 against the Bengals.
Ringer 107, Week 1 pick.
“But for the purposes of our contest, I would go Bucs plus three and a half.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Lost by 6
- The Jets cover +1.5 against the Titans.
Ringer 107, Week 1 pick.
“And it is the New York Jets at the Tennessee Titans.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Won by 13
- The Jets run the ball effectively against the Titans.
“But I think they're going to be able to establish the run very quietly.”
45%"Establish the run" needs a rushing-yards proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
- The Jets win 7 or 8 games.
“Yeah, we had like seven, eight wins possibly for them.”
75%Win total settles from standings; 'possibly' hedges it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 1–3, 3rd in the AFC East (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Cowboys cover −2.5 against the Giants.
Ringer 107, Week 1 pick.
“Cowboys Sunday night minus two and a half against the Giants.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Lost by 8
- The Cowboys cover −2.5 against the Giants.
Ringer 107, Week 1 pick.
“This is a piggyback.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Lost by 8
- The Cowboys win 10 or more games.
“I think that's going to happen, especially with the schedule they have.”
85%Win total settles from standings; it is tied to a defensive condition.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the NFC East (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Steelers win 10 or more games.
“but I think before the year, I had the Steelers at 10 wins.”
90%Win total settles from standings; it is a restated preseason projection.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the AFC North (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Steelers make the playoffs.
“I think they're going to be a playoff team”
100%Settles from the final standings.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the AFC North (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Falcons finish with the worst record in the NFC.
“the Falcons have a chance to be the worst team in the league or at least the worst team in the NFC”
45%'Have a chance' is hedged, though the final NFC standings can check it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Steelers beat the Falcons.
A moneyline lean on top of his Steelers −4.5 Ringer 107 pick.
“but I, I like that Steelers money line was something else”
95%Straight-up result; offered as a parlay leg rather than a firm standalone bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 7
- The Steelers cover −4.5 against the Falcons.
Ringer 107, Week 1 pick.
“So I'm going to hold my nose and I'm going to do Steelers minus four and a half against a Falcons team.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Won by 7
- The Eagles beat Washington
“Philadelphia Eagles at home beating Washington on the money line.”
100%The final score gives a clear win-or-not answer.
How it’s graded: The Philadelphia Eagles beat Washington outright in their 2026 Week 1 home game (moneyline; a tie or loss grades as a miss). Source: Official NFL final score (NFL.com or ESPN box score). Settles: Final whistle of the 2026 Week 1 PHI vs WSH game.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Won by 2
- The Steelers beat the Falcons
“Pittsburgh Steelers at home beating the Atlanta Falcons at home.”
100%The final score shows a clear win or not.
How it’s graded: The Steelers win their 2026 Week 1 game against the Falcons. A tie or a Falcons win grades as a miss. Source: Official NFL final score (NFL.com or ESPN box score). Settles: Final whistle of the 2026 Week 1 Steelers-Falcons game.
Who said it (90%): House’s own moneyline parlay, Eagles and Steelers
Result: Won by 7
- The Broncos cover +2.5 against the Chiefs.
Leaning toward this for his Sunday fifth pick.
“Right now, leaning toward Broncos, plus two and a half against the Chiefs.”
90%Settles from the final score, but it is only a lean and he hopes for +3.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 21
- The Broncos cover +2.5 against the Chiefs.
His likely Sunday fifth pick; he says he'll play the posted number.
“that's who i'm i'm 96 there already with denver”
85%Settles from the final score; it is a leaning fifth pick.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Lost by 21
- Broncos–Chiefs is decided by one score (8 points or fewer).
“i don't understand how this isn't a one score game one way or the other”
90%Final margin of 8 or less either way settles it from the box score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Ravens–Colts game goes over 47.5.
“And I don't really trust either defense, and I wonder if that is going to be a point bonanza.”
90%Settles from the combined score; it is a lean, not a bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: 64 total points
- The Ravens–Colts game goes over 47.5.
“I mean, I like that over quite a bit also.”
85%Settles from the combined score; he likes it but stays out of the game.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: 64 total points
- Daniel Jones struggles in his return from the Achilles injury against the Ravens.
“I'm very skeptical about Danny Dimes coming out and just, boom, slotting right in”
35%"Slotting right in" needs a passing-stat proxy and is phrased as skepticism.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
- The Vikings beat their forecasted win total.
“I think Minnesota is going to be a slight tick better than their forecasted win total.”
70%Needs the preseason win total; 'slight tick' is vague.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
- The Packers have a disappointing season.
“And I'm very pessimistic about Green Bay this season.”
40%Pessimism has no defined threshold; the win total could serve as a proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
- The Chargers beat the Cardinals.
“I think the Chargers are going to be pulling it out, Dirk Degger style.”
95%Settles from the final score; it is a lean, not a placed bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 12
- UCLA beats San Diego State.
UCLA is −480 at home against San Diego State.
“I do not think there's any chance UCLA will lose this game”
100%Settles from the final score of UCLA vs. San Diego State.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Chargers beat the Cardinals.
Chargers leg of his moneyline parlay (Steelers, Chargers, UCLA at +108 once Philly was dropped).
“If you add the Chargers and your UCLA Bruins, plus 192 on the FanDuel Sportsbook.”
100%Settles from the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Lost by 12
