The Bill Simmons PodcastThe Smashmouth Giants, Bumbling Chargers, Stumbling Packers, Week 1 Overreactions, and Guess the Lines
TL;DR
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- Live on Netflix after the Giants beat the Cowboys on Sunday night. Sal, the Cowboys fan, is furious about a defense that couldn’t stop the same play all night. Bill admits Harbaugh’s physical Giants looked like a real team.
- The rest of Week 1: Green Bay blows a 22–10 lead to Carson Wentz, the Chargers get outcoached by the Cardinals, Josh Allen survives Houston, and Derrick Henry runs for 144 yards and 3 touchdowns at 32.
- A yard sale of regrettable futures (Stribling, Bowers, AJ Brown, Myles Garrett, Dallas over 10.5 wins), plus Bill’s Mariners rant and complaints about US Open and WNBA scheduling.
- Guess the Lines Week 2 goes to Sal: he leads 10–8 with two games left and wins both. In Parent Corner, Sal’s son moves next to a neighborhood tweaker, and Bill keeps arguing about a third dog.
Segments
8▸
00:00
Intro
Bill and Sal go live on Netflix right after Giants–Cowboys.
00:01
Week 1 reactions
Jaxson Dart completes all but six passes and Cam Skattebo runs over Dallas, while Sal blames Schottenheimer and the defense. Bill wonders if the Giants’ battering-ram style can last. Other games: Jared Goff’s “forward” pass, Deshaun Watson’s early pick, and the Bengals’ four takeaways against a sloppy Tampa. Tomlin explains on NBC why offenses are ahead of defenses early. Bills–Texans turns on a dropped Lassiter interception.
00:23
Packers–Vikings, Chargers–Cardinals and the first coach fired
The Packers lose 29 straight points to Carson Wentz, and Bill reads a Packers fan’s gambling-scandal joke. The Chargers burn a timeout on 3rd-and-30 in a loss to Brissett’s Cardinals. Sal offers LaFleur, Bowles or Harbaugh as the first coach fired.
00:37
Regrettable futures
Futures they’d sell at a discount: Stribling for Rookie of the Year, Bowers for 1,000 yards, AJ Brown for 10 TDs, Garrett for Defensive Player of the Year, Dallas over 10.5 wins, Herbert for MVP, Stafford for the passing title, Jayden Daniels for Comeback Player of the Year, and Washington/Atlanta under 8.5 wins. Bill can see the Rams missing the playoffs.
00:43
Around the league
Lamar is back and Daniel Jones isn’t. Derrick Henry joins the greatest-older-athlete conversation. The Bears score 59, Gibbs takes 35 touches, and Philadelphia “sucks the life out of both fan bases.” Also: Raiders–Dolphins’ receivers, a punchless Steelers offense, and Saleh’s revenge game going nowhere.
01:01
Mariners, US Open and WNBA scheduling
Bill’s Mariners rant (Muñoz’s 10th blown save sinks his fantasy team), then Shelton–Zverev up against football, the WNBA pausing for the FIBA World Cup, and Ballmer saying he won’t sue.
01:08
Guess the Lines Week 2
Sal takes it, winning the Thursday Bills–Lions game, Pats–Steelers, Packers–Jets, Eagles–Titans and both prime-time games. Bill is off by about 2 points all night, despite new contacts.
01:29
Parent Corner
Sal’s son moves to a college house with a dispensary and a neighborhood tweaker nearby, and Bill recommends an aluminum bat. Bill and his wife argue about getting a third dog (a rescue or a Newfoundland); Bill says it won’t happen, and Sal gives it two years.
Guess the Lines — Week 2
Each guess is how many points the favorite lays (negative means the underdog is favored). Green marks the closer guess, and dark green an exact hit. “Real” is the line as read on the show.
Sal wins Week 2, 8–4–4 on games. Guess the Lines →
| Game | Bill | Sal | Real | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Billsover Lions | 4.5 | 4 | 3.5 | DET 31 @ BUF 41 ↗ |
 Texansover Bengals | 1.5 | 1 | 2.5 | CIN 20 @ HOU 6 ↗ |
 Broncosover Jaguars | 2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | JAX 13 @ DEN 20 ↗ |
 Bearsover Vikings | 3.5 | 3.5 | 5.5 | MIN 9 @ CHI 3 ↗ |
 Patriotsover Steelers | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | PIT 3 @ NE 20 ↗ |
 Buccaneersover Browns | 7 | 6.5 | 7.5 | CLE 23 @ TB 19 ↗ |
 Ravensover Saints | 7 | 8 | 8.5 | NO 24 @ BAL 17 ↗ |
 Cowboysover Commanders | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | WSH 20 @ DAL 37 ↗ |
 Packersover Jets | 1 | 4 | 4.5 | GB 20 @ NYJ 17 ↗ |
 Falconsover Panthers | -1.5 | -1.5 | 1.5 | CAR 34 @ ATL 3 ↗ |
 Eaglesover Titans | 4.5 | 6.5 | 7 | PHI 24 @ TEN 20 ↗ |
 Seahawksover Cardinals | 3.5 | 2.5 | 5.5 | SEA 31 @ ARI 7 ↗ |
 Chargersover Raiders | 8 | 8 | 7 | LV 26 @ LAC 14 ↗ |
 49ersover Dolphins | 12.5 | 10.5 | 13.5 | MIA 13 @ SF 35 ↗ |
 Chiefsover Colts | 5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | IND 30 @ KC 33 ↗ |
 Ramsover Giants | 6.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | NYG 6 @ LAR 28 ↗ |
Predictions on the record
Graded so far: 6–7 (46%)
Transcripts don’t label speakers, so each take has a speaker confidence score for who said it (hover it for the reasoning). Each take also has a gradeability score: 100% means it can be cleanly confirmed or refuted, and 0% means pure opinion. Click a tier to filter.
- Jaxson Dart or Cam Skattebo doesn’t last the whole season
“didn't think dart or scadabo would last for”
55%Graded as: Dart or Skattebo suffers a season-ending injury or misses 4+ games
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Dart needed season-ending surgery (MCL, PCL and meniscus) after a knee injury against the Rams in Week 2.
- Graded by: Bleacher Report ↗ Giants’ Cam Skattebo Reacts to Jaxson Dart’s Season-Ending Knee Injury · Sep 24, 2026
- The Giants finish under their preseason win total.
Restating a preseason future; he didn't think Dart or Skattebo would last four months.
“the reason one of the many reasons we went under with them”
75%Season wins settle it, but the win-total number isn't stated here.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Deshaun Watson loses the Browns' starting job within a week or two.
On wishing he had more money against Deshaun Watson.
“There's only like one or two weeks left for this.”
60%A benching is public record, but 'one or two weeks' is loose and only implied.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Buccaneers are a better team than the Bengals this season.
After the Bengals beat Tampa despite the Bucs never punting.
“I think Tampa's a little better.”
30%"A little better" needs a proxy such as final records.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bills are a good team this season.
“So, yeah, they're going to be good.”
45%'Good' needs a proxy like record or playoffs.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Jim Harbaugh is among the first three or four head coaches fired this season.
First coach fired: offered LaFleur, Bowles and Jim Harbaugh.
“i would say he's top three three or four at this point”
35%Ranks a coach's firing odds; settles only loosely if he's fired early.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Cardinals are a competitive team this season.
“I mean, the Cardinals aren't bad.”
40%"Not bad" needs a proxy such as a win total against their 3.5-win line.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Cardinals start the season 0–5.
Restated from last week's futures draft, right after Arizona won Week 1.
“one of your favorite futures was the Cardinals would start at 0 -5”
100%The Cardinals' record after five games settles it, and the Week 1 win already busts it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Dijon Stribling wins Offensive Rookie of the Year
“So Dijon Stribling to win offensive rookie of the year.”
95%A futures bet from their preseason futures draft, restated here; awards are a matter of record
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- Brock Bowers plays in Week 2.
“they shaved his meniscus but he might be ready for week two”
75%The box score settles it, but 'might' hedges.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Brock Bowers isn’t in the box score; confirm by hand
- AJ Brown scores 10+ touchdowns
“A.J. Brown, 10 -plus touchdowns”
95%A futures bet from their preseason futures draft, restated here; season touchdown total
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- Myles Garrett wins Defensive Player of the Year.
Regrettable futures; bet at +400, now crossed off after Garrett's injury.
“I have no chance at Miles Garrett, Defensive Player of the Year for plus 400.”
100%Award winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Colts, Browns, Giants, Jets and Cardinals all miss the playoffs.
Regrettable futures; bet at +156.
“Indianapolis, Cleveland, Giants, Jets, and Arizona, no playoffs, was plus 156.”
100%Final playoff field settles all five legs.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Cowboys win more than 10.5 games.
Regrettable futures; bet at +500.
“I'm putting Dallas over 10 and a half wins plus 500 in the front of the store”
100%Final standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the NFC East (as of 2026-10-05)
- Justin Herbert wins MVP.
Regrettable futures.
“I said Herbert MVP.”
100%MVP winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Justin Herbert throws for 4,500+ yards
“Herbert 4,500 plus yards 12 to 1.”
100%A fixed yardage threshold settled by official season stats is a clear yes or no.
How it’s graded: Justin Herbert records 4,500 or more passing yards in the 2026 NFL regular season. Source: Pro Football Reference or ESPN season passing stats. Settles: End of the 2026 NFL regular season.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- Matthew Stafford leads the league in passing yards.
Regrettable futures; bet at 5-1. Sal now expects Caleb Williams to go nuts.
“Stafford most passing yards.”
100%League passing-yards leader is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Caleb Williams throws for more yards than Matthew Stafford this season.
Explaining why his Stafford most-passing-yards future looks bad.
“I think Caleb Williams is just going to go nuts with this one”
70%Season passing-yard totals compare the two, but "go nuts" is loose.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Caleb Williams throws for 4,000+ yards
“He'll get that by week three.”
100%Season passing yards are a public stat with a clear numeric threshold.
How it’s graded: Caleb Williams finishes the 2026 NFL regular season with 4,000 or more passing yards. Source: Pro Football Reference or ESPN season passing stats. Settles: End of the 2026 regular season.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Rams miss the playoffs
“I could see them missing the playoffs.”
60%Playoffs are checkable, but “I could see” hedges it
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Patriots have a solid season despite the Week 1 loss.
Asked whether any of his 10-plus-win teams that lost in Week 1 worry him.
“I think the Pats are going to be okay.”
40%"Okay" needs a proxy such as a winning record or a playoff spot.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Rams finish under 11.5 wins.
“I wouldn't want to have to bet on the Rams having to go 12 -5.”
85%Standings settle it; framed as a lean, not a bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the NFC West, the NFC 7 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Commanders and Falcons both win fewer than 8.5 games.
Bet at +112; he says there's no chance either team wins nine.
“I had Washington, Atlanta, under 8.5 wins for plus 112”
100%Final win totals settle both legs.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Neither Washington nor Atlanta wins 9 games
“it's like, there's no chance either of those teams”
95%Both teams’ final win totals
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- Jayden Daniels wins Comeback Player of the Year.
Regrettable futures; bet at +750.
“Jaden Daniels comeback player of the year plus 750”
100%Award winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Zay Flowers misses the Week 2 game against the Saints.
“Flowers actually looks like he's going to be out for a couple”
90%Week 2 box score settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Zay Flowers isn’t in the box score
- Jacoby Lane wins Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Restated future.
“I also had Jacoby Lane for Offensive Rookie of the Year”
100%Award winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Ravens earn the AFC's 1 seed.
“I had them as a possible one seed.”
70%Final seeding settles it; 'possible' hedges.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 3–1, 2nd in the AFC North, the AFC 5 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Colts finish with the worst record in the AFC.
Bill recalling Sal's preseason Colts take.
“you thought they had a chance to be the worst team in the AFC”
55%Standings settle it, but 'had a chance' is a soft framing.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bears win the NFC North.
“They might be the best NFC North team even though they can't stop anybody.”
75%Division standings settle it; 'might' hedges.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 3–1, 2nd in the NFC North, the NFC 5 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bears play the most exciting, high-scoring games in the NFC North.
“they're going to be the most exciting NFC North team for sure”
20%"Most exciting" is taste; combined points per game is only a rough proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bears break the single-season points record.
Ben Johnson wants the points record; the Bears need 34 a game.
“I mean, that's doable.”
75%Season points total against the record (606); 'doable' hedges.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The NFC South winner finishes 7–10 or worse.
Restated preseason call after the NFC South went 0-4.
“predicted that the winner would go 7 -10 and I think I was just a little bit generous there”
85%The division winner's record settles it; he now says it could go as low as 6-11 or 4-13.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Lions' secondary struggles until injured players return.
“Their secondary is going to be really bad until they start getting guys back”
40%"Really bad" needs a proxy such as passing yards allowed, and the timeframe is open-ended.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Commanders are bad this season.
“Washington's going to be bad”
50%'Bad' needs a record proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Malik Willis throws an interception in most games this season.
“that's a good bet every week is a Willis interception”
55%Weekly game logs settle it, but "every week" has no clear threshold.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Robert Saleh is the first coach fired
“is it a wild card to say Salah could be a first coach fired?”
60%Firings are a matter of record, but “could” hedges it
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- Josh Allen has a big game against the Lions.
Guess the Lines, Bills at Lions on Thursday night.
“this should be a really nice Josh Allen game”
50%"Really nice game" has no set threshold for a quarterback, so it needs a box-score proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bengals force fewer than four turnovers against the Texans.
“I don't think they'll be getting four turnovers again.”
90%The box score shows the turnovers forced.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Kyler Murray doesn't play against the Bears in Week 2.
“Yeah, we won't see him.”
100%Week 2 box score settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Kyler Murray isn’t in the box score
- The Bears beat the Vikings and the game goes over the total.
Guess the Lines, Vikings at Bears (line Bears −5.5).
“To me, if you're going to do the money line with them, you do it with the over.”
55%The box score settles it, but the lean is conditional and no total was stated.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Buccaneers cover a teased −1.5 against the Browns.
Teaser idea: Bucs −7.5 teased six points.
“That is looking teaser -ish.”
70%Settles against the teased line, but it's a lean, not a placed bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Lost by 4
- The Browns lose to the Buccaneers.
Betting against Deshaun Watson.
“I'm going to have multiple bets.”
90%The final score settles it; the exact bets aren't specified.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 4
- The Bucs–Browns line moves to Buccaneers −9.5.
The line was 7.5 when he said it.
“This line will be nine and a half in two days.”
85%Closing line at 9.5+ (the stated 'two days' is graded at close).
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Closed TB -8.5
- The Cowboys beat Washington.
Cowboys −4.5 at home against Washington.
“I know I'm going to put them in a money line.”
95%The final score settles the moneyline leg.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 17
- The Packers aren’t good (and lose to the Jets)
“I don't think the Packers are good.”
50%Graded as the Packers losing to the Jets in Week 2; “not good” is a season-long proxy
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Won by 3
- The Jets beat the Packers.
Every year one 0-2 team and one 2-0 team shouldn't be.
“This could be the one.”
80%The final score settles it; 'could be' hedges.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Lost by 3
- The Jets cover +4.5 against the Packers.
Packers are 4.5-point road favorites; Bill doesn't think they're good.
“I don't like them on the road or at home.”
80%Settles against the line; a lean rather than a stated bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 3
- 6-point teaser: Falcons +4.5 and Panthers +7.5 in the same game.
Teaser idea: tease both sides to try to middle it.
“You could have the Falcons plus four and a half and the Panthers plus seven and a half and just try to middle it.”
70%Both legs settle from the final score, but he only 'might' bet it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: 2-leg teaser
- Sam Darnold doesn't play against the Cardinals in Week 2.
“Darnold's out for this week.”
100%Week 2 box score settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Sam Darnold isn’t in the box score
- The 49ers–Dolphins line moves past 13.5
“should go higher than that”
85%Graded as an ESPN closing line of 49ers −14 or more
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Closed SF -12.5
- Bill’s family doesn’t get a third dog
“We're not going to end up getting the third dog.”
40%Only checkable if Bill mentions a new dog on a later show
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- Bill gets another dog within two years
“you'll get one within the next two years”
45%A two-year window, only checkable if Bill mentions it
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- Jimmy Kimmel doesn't win the Emmy outright.
On the next night's Emmys; Sal says Colbert won most of the technical Emmys.
“Yeah, it's a long shot.”
85%The Emmy result settles it, but his tie caveat hedges it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)