The Bill Simmons PodcastTexas Toast, Fantasy Murderers, Drake Maybe Back, Guess the Lines and MLB Playoffs
TL;DR
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- The Patriots beat Buffalo at home. Bill thinks Drake Maye's problem was confidence, not his shoulder, and credits a re-energized Vrabel for getting him back.
- The cross-off list adds the Chargers instead of the Cardinals, after producer Eduardo begged them to put his team out of its misery. Bill says Herbert and Harbaugh look broken.
- The NFC playoff picture looks settled to both hosts: three NFC West teams, the Bears, the NFC South winner and an NFC East team. Minnesota is 4–0 but has an awful offense, and Bill can't wait to bet against them in the playoffs.
- Bill wins most of Guess the Lines while Sal is medicated for a kidney stone that gets zapped Thursday. They also preview UCLA at Oregon, and Sal takes Brewers over Rays in the World Series.
Segments
10▸
00:00
Lions-Panthers and the NFC playoff picture
After a plug for a Texas Chainsaw Massacre Rewatchable, the hosts pick apart an ugly but entertaining Sunday night game. Sal says Detroit's defense makes every quarterback look great. Bill questions Dan Campbell going for it on 4th-and-20 instead of kicking. Bill ranks quarterbacks in tiers and now puts Bryce Young in the middle tier and Trevor Lawrence in the top one. On the NFC playoff race, both see three NFC West teams, the Bears (thanks to Ben Johnson), the NFC South champ and one NFC East team. Bill doesn't trust Minnesota for the last spot and calls Green Bay terrible.
00:10
Dolphins-Vikings, Cardinals-Giants, Chargers-Seahawks
Hawkinson's slide at the one-yard line hands Miami the cover. A listener asks whether the 4–0 Vikings could be the first unbeaten team crossed off. Bill says no, but expects a hollow 13–4 team he'll bet against in round one. The 0–4 Texans keep blowing late leads (Bill's Munoz comparison), and CeeDee Lamb's 17-catch game drives Dallas to −132 to make the playoffs. Bill nominates the Cardinals as the week's cross-off after their walk-off pick-six loss to Jameis and the Giants. Then Seattle routs the Chargers. Bill says Herbert looks beaten down and the team looks broken, and wonders whether Harbaugh just walks away. The segment ends with the 'fantasy murderers' all-stars: Herbert, Saquon, Egbuka, Harrison, Loveland and the Texans defense.
00:30
Patriots-Bills and Cowboys-Texans
After the break the Chargers replace the Cardinals as the third cross-off. Bill raves about the Pats' upset of Buffalo: Vrabel looked like his old self, the play-calling was aggressive, Maye's shoulder looked fine, and Efton Chisholm made the catch of the year. Sal agrees Maye is back but says every snap is still an adventure. Josh Allen has struggled two weeks running, and the MVP odds are wide open; Bill likes Lawrence at 10–1 and Prescott at 14–1. Bill sees Dallas going 6–3 over its next stretch. Sal thinks 9–8 could win the NFC East and still expects some dumb Cowboys losses.
00:43
Rams-Eagles and Chiefs-Raiders
Philadelphia's offense managed 172 total yards and went 0-for-12 on third down, yet nearly beat the Rams before Stafford's two late drives. Bill doesn't think the Eagles are good, and the hosts pile on the dismal week in Philly sports. The Raiders' close loss to Kansas City felt like a moral victory in a loud stadium, but Tyquan Thornton's ankle injury costs the Chiefs their deep threat. Kenneth Walker keeps rolling for Seattle. Asked who gets the AFC one seed, Bill trusts Jacksonville most, and Sal doubts any AFC team reaches 12 wins.
00:53
Broncos-49ers and Jaguars-Bengals
Denver's offense has scored 13 total first-half points this season. Sal says the Broncos aren't an 11–12-win team anymore, and Bill doubts they reach 10 and wonders whether Payton takes back play-calling. Bill is ready to hand Shanahan Coach of the Year for winning through injuries. Bill calls the Jaguars legit after they won in Cincinnati through penalties and three touchdowns called back. The hosts wonder whether Burrow is becoming a good-stats, losing-team quarterback after Ja'Marr Chase left with a face-mask injury.
01:01
Jets-Bears and Packers-Buccaneers
The Bears held the ball for 43 minutes, and Bill says that ends any talk of the Jets being good. He calls Ben Johnson one of the league's elite coaches. Green Bay nearly blew it to Tampa and rookie Jalen Daniels in his first start, and Bill's takeaway is that both teams stink.
01:03
Colts-Commanders
A London game they call 'perfect' for all the wrong reasons: Washington loses quarterbacks, Quinn's failed fourth-and-1 swings the game, and the Colts pull away. Bill then rants about Colts owner Carlie Irsay taking notes and hovering on the sideline. He argues a male owner would be mocked for it, and Sal says owners belong in the suite.
01:06
Guess the Lines Week 5
Bill dominates while Sal blames his medication, taking most games and moving to 3–1–1 for the season. Along the way Bill previews UCLA at Oregon, likes UCLA to win outright, and pitches a UCLA moneyline plus over parlay at +733. He says he'll take the Bears for Ringer 107 if Caleb is back, and likes the Cardinals against Detroit because he thinks the Lions' defense is bad. He thinks the Browns may close as favorites over the Jets. Other talking points: whether DeMeco Ryans's job is in question, Burrow facing Miami's surprisingly feisty defense, and Sal's kidney-stone procedure on Thursday.
01:33
Parent Corner
Sal's parent corner is his kidney stone. He explains the zapping procedure and recounts fleeing a meeting with Mets owner Steve Cohen mid-conversation when the pain hit. They swap Brooklyn stories about Babydoll's $90,000 Italy trip and his hatred of Ari Emanuel's book. Bill describes his daughter planning restaurant orders in advance and her love of pickles, and his son Ben getting jacked in a few weeks.
01:46
MLB and WNBA playoffs
The hosts debate the Milwaukee roof ball that cost a go-ahead homer, then complain that playoff baseball has become endless bullpen games. Sal sticks with his Brewers-over-Rays World Series pick at 10–1, and Bill calls Tampa the best AL team he's watched. Bill's Aces title bet took a hit when Golden State won Game 1, and he slams the WNBA for scheduling against the NFL. To close, they read House's exact-order NFC North bet (Bears, Vikings, Lions, Packers) at 9–1.
Guess the Lines — Week 5
Each guess is how many points the favorite lays (negative means the underdog is favored). Green marks the closer guess, and dark green an exact hit. “Real” is the line as read on the show.
Bill wins Week 5, 6–3–5 on games. Guess the Lines →
| Game | Bill | Sal | Real | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cowboysover Buccaneers | 5.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 10/8 - 8:15 PM EDT ↗ |
 Jaguarsover Eagles | 3 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 10/11 - 9:30 AM EDT ↗ |
 Seahawksover 49ers | 2.5 | 3.5 | 3 | 10/11 - 4:25 PM EDT ↗ |
 Patriotsover Raiders | 2.5 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 10/11 - 1:00 PM EDT ↗ |
 Packersover Bears | 1.5 | 1.5 | -2.5 | 10/11 - 1:00 PM EDT ↗ |
 Lionsover Cardinals | 1.5 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 10/11 - 4:25 PM EDT ↗ |
 Vikingsover Saints | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 10/11 - 1:00 PM EDT ↗ |
 Jetsover Browns | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 10/11 - 1:00 PM EDT ↗ |
 Steelersover Colts | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 10/11 - 1:00 PM EDT ↗ |
 Broncosover Chargers | 2.5 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 10/11 - 4:05 PM EDT ↗ |
 Texansover Titans | 7.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 10/11 - 1:00 PM EDT ↗ |
 Bengalsover Dolphins | 7.5 | — | 7.5 | 10/11 - 1:00 PM EDT ↗ |
 Commandersover Giants | 2.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 10/11 - 1:00 PM EDT ↗ |
 Ravensover Falcons | 3.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 10/11 - 8:20 PM EDT ↗ |
 Ramsover Bills | 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 10/12 - 8:15 PM EDT ↗ |
Predictions on the record
Graded so far: 0–0 (—)
Transcripts don’t label speakers, so each take has a speaker confidence score for who said it (hover it for the reasoning). Each take also has a gradeability score: 100% means it can be cleanly confirmed or refuted, and 0% means pure opinion. Click a tier to filter.
- The Bears win at least 10 games.
Filling out the seven NFC playoff spots.
“it just seems like he's going to scotch tape and duct tape them to 10 games”
85%Win total checks from standings; "seems like" hedges it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 3–1, 2nd in the NFC North, the NFC 5 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Vikings make the playoffs.
Filling the seventh NFC playoff spot from Philly, Detroit and Minnesota.
“So I guess it would be Minnesota, but I don't feel good about Minnesota.”
75%Settles from final standings, but hedged with 'I guess' and 'I don't feel good'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 4–0, 1st in the NFC North, the NFC 1 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- Three NFC West teams make the playoffs.
“I think there's three NFC West teams in the playoffs again”
100%The playoff field is public record and counting NFC West qualifiers is a clear yes or no.
How it’s graded: At least three of the four NFC West teams (ARI, LAR, SF, SEA) qualify for the 2026-27 NFL playoffs. Source: NFL.com final 2026 regular-season standings and playoff bracket. Settles: End of the 2026 NFL regular season.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The NFC North sends two teams to the playoffs.
“And I think the North will get two.”
100%The final standings give a public, yes-or-no count of NFC North playoff teams.
How it’s graded: Exactly two of CHI, MIN, DET and GB make the 2026 NFL playoffs, counting division winners and wild cards. Source: NFL.com final 2026 regular-season standings and playoff seeds. Settles: End of the 2026 NFL regular season.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The NFC East sends exactly one team to the playoffs.
“And then I still think there's one in the East.”
90%Number of NFC East playoff teams settles from final standings.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Cowboys are the NFC's fourth-best team, behind the three NFC West teams.
“And then maybe your team is fourth just because of how you can move the ball.”
30%Hedged with 'maybe', and 'fourth-best' has no clear record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Vikings go about 14-3.
“I guess we're just going to have to get used to them going like 14 -3”
70%Win total settles it; 'like 14-3' is read here as 13-15 wins, and the tone is half sarcastic.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 4–0, 1st in the NFC North, the NFC 1 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Vikings go about 13-4.
He adds that he can't wait to bet against them in round one.
“now they're probably going to go 13 and four”
85%Graded here as 13+ wins; "probably" hedges it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 4–0, 1st in the NFC North, the NFC 1 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Vikings lose their first playoff game.
“we will not be able to wait to bet against them in round one”
65%Their first playoff game settles it, but only if they make the playoffs.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Cardinals miss the playoffs.
Proposed as the week's cross-off; they ended up crossing off the Chargers instead.
“I think it's the Arizona Cardinals.”
100%Settles automatically from the final regular-season standings
How it’s graded: The Arizona Cardinals are not one of their conference’s 7 playoff teams when the 2026 regular season ends. Source: ESPN final regular-season standings (saved in data/standings.js). Settles: After the 2026 regular season ends (Week 18).
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Currently 1–3, 4th in the NFC West (as of 2026-10-05)
- Jim Harbaugh steps away from the Chargers.
“I could see him resigning”
55%Resignation would be public, but "could see" and no timeframe make it soft.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Chargers miss the playoffs.
Official cross-off of the week; Sal agreed.
“look, they're not making it”
100%Playoff field is black and white.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the AFC West (as of 2026-10-05)
- Nine wins is enough for the last NFC playoff spot.
“The NFC, it might be nine wins.”
70%The last NFC seed's record settles it; hedged with 'might'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Drake Maye gets back to his form from last season.
“So I think they build him back.”
35%'Build him back' needs a proxy, such as Maye's passer rating for the rest of the season.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Josh Allen does not win MVP.
“And they might not go to Josh Allen, who's still favored, according to FanDuel, to win MVP at plus 230.”
75%The MVP winner settles it, but 'might' hedges it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Trevor Lawrence (10-1) or Dak Prescott (14-1) wins MVP.
Sal read Allen +230 and Purdy +450 for MVP.
“the guys I would bet Lawrence at 10 -1 or Prescott at 14 -1”
75%MVP winner is public, but it's two players and framed as value.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Cowboys are 6-3 after their next five games.
Next five: Tampa, at Green Bay, at Philly, Arizona, at Indy.
“That feels like six and three.”
100%Exact record after a fixed game is a clear yes/no in public standings.
How it’s graded: The Cowboys' record is exactly 6-3 after their 9th game of 2026, the at-Indianapolis game that closes this five-game stretch. Source: NFL.com or ESPN 2026 standings and Cowboys schedule results. Settles: After the Cowboys' 9th game (at Indianapolis), 2026.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- A 9-8 record is enough to win the NFC East.
“I honestly still think nine and eight can win this division.”
100%The division winner's win total is a public number, so it is a clear yes or no.
How it’s graded: The 2026 NFC East champion finishes the regular season with 9 or fewer wins. Source: NFL.com final 2026 regular-season standings. Settles: End of the 2026 NFL regular season.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Cowboys finish ahead of the Eagles in the NFC East.
Both teams were +130 to win the NFC East.
“And I don't understand how anybody could watch those two teams today and think they should have the same odds.”
100%Final division order is a public yes-or-no record, though no automatic rule covers head-to-head finish.
How it’s graded: The Cowboys finish above the Eagles in the final 2026 NFC East standings, with NFL tiebreakers deciding any tie in record. Source: NFL.com final 2026 regular-season NFC East standings. Settles: End of the 2026 NFL regular season.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Eagles are not a good team this season.
“And I just don't think they're good.”
45%'Not good' needs a proxy, such as the Eagles' final record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Jaguars are the AFC's best team.
“I would say that the team I probably feel the best about is Jacksonville.”
45%Needs a proxy like the AFC one seed for "best team".
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Tyquan Thornton misses the rest of the season with his ankle injury.
“I don't think he's coming back”
90%Games missed are public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Chiefs sign Tyreek Hill.
Talking about how the Chiefs replace the injured Thornton.
“the Tyreek Hill stuff's already started you know which wouldn't be until November but they could fit back in”
60%A signing is easy to check, but 'could' and 'who knows' hedge it heavily.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- No AFC team wins 12 or more games.
Bill asked whether anybody gets to 12 wins in the AFC.
“I don't think it's 12.”
100%Final standings show every AFC team's win total, so the result is a clear yes or no.
How it’s graded: No AFC team finishes the 2026 NFL regular season with 12 or more wins; ties do not count as wins. Source: Final 2026 NFL regular-season standings (NFL.com or ESPN). Settles: End of the 2026 NFL regular season.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Broncos win fewer than 11 games.
“they're not 11 -12 win caliber team anymore”
100%Settles automatically from the final regular-season standings
How it’s graded: The Denver Broncos finish the 2026 regular season with 10 or fewer wins. Source: ESPN final regular-season standings (saved in data/standings.js). Settles: After the 2026 regular season ends (Week 18).
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the AFC West (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Broncos win more than six games.
Asked whether the Broncos are only a six-win team.
“I would say no way”
90%Final win total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the AFC West (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Broncos win fewer than 10 games.
Denver's win total is 9.5 with juice on the under.
“people still feel like this team can win 10 games I don't know if I see it”
80%Win total checks from standings; "don't know if I see it" softens it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the AFC West (as of 2026-10-05)
- Sean Payton takes play-calling duties back.
“I do wonder if it's all leading toward he takes the play calling back”
55%Reporting would confirm a play-calling change, but 'I do wonder' is a soft hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Kyle Shanahan wins Coach of the Year.
“Shanahan just give it to him now, this coach of the year”
100%Award winner is a single public announcement, a clear yes or no.
How it’s graded: Kyle Shanahan is named AP NFL Coach of the Year for the 2026 season. Source: AP NFL Honors announcement (NFL.com / ESPN). Settles: NFL Honors, February 2027.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Jets miss the playoffs.
“So that's it for the Jets being good, I think.”
55%'Being good' is graded here as making the playoffs.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 1–3, 3rd in the AFC East (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Packers and Buccaneers are both bad teams this season.
“But my big takeaway was both of these teams suck.”
40%'Suck' needs a proxy, such as each team's final record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Neither the Colts nor the Commanders make the playoffs.
“It was two teams that are probably not going to make the playoffs.”
85%Playoff field is public; "probably" hedges it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Cowboys score at least 27 points against the Buccaneers.
Asked about the minimum the Cowboys score against the Bucs: '27?'
“Yeah, I think so.”
100%The official final score gives a clear yes or no; no automatic rule covers team points.
How it’s graded: The Cowboys score 27 or more points (official final, including overtime) in their next game against the Buccaneers after Oct 5, 2026. Source: Official NFL box score (NFL.com or ESPN). Settles: Final whistle of the next Cowboys-Buccaneers game.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- UCLA goes over its preseason win total.
Sal asked about Bill's preseason UCLA over.
“I'm going to win that”
80%Win total is public, but the line (6.5 or 7.5) is unclear.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- UCLA beats Oregon.
Oregon was an 11.5-point favorite.
“I think UCLA can win this game, especially with the bye.”
90%Game result settles it; "can win" hedges.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Oregon fails to cover −11.5 against UCLA.
“I would not take them laying 11 and a half for sure”
85%Cover is black and white; framed as a pass, not a bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Oregon's starting quarterback does not play against UCLA.
Asked whether Oregon's starting quarterback returns for UCLA.
“I don't think so”
80%Box score shows who started; the quarterback isn't named.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- UCLA beats Oregon and the game goes over the total.
UCLA moneyline plus the over paid +733.
“I do like UCLA and the over”
90%Box score settles it; the total wasn't stated on the show.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Seahawks beat the 49ers.
“It's where they make their move in”
90%Game result settles it; the phrasing is a lean.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- Brock Purdy becomes the MVP favorite if the 49ers win at Seattle.
“Birdie's the MVP favorite if he pulls this off somehow.”
60%Conditional on a 49ers win, then the MVP odds have to be checked by hand.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- Brock Bowers has a big game against the Patriots.
“he's going to be a nightmare for the Patriots”
80%Graded here as 75+ receiving yards ("big game" for a receiver).
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Patriots cover −3.5 against the Raiders.
“I feel like this line's too low.”
75%Cover is black and white; "line's too low" is an implied lean.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- Caleb Williams plays against the Packers.
“I feel like Caleb will be back for this game”
100%Whether he took a snap is a plain yes or no in the public box score.
How it’s graded: Caleb Williams takes at least one offensive snap in the Bears' next game vs. the Packers after 2026-10-05. Source: Official NFL box score / gamebook snap counts. Settles: Final whistle of the next 2026 Bears-Packers game.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Bears cover −2.5 at Green Bay.
Bears are 2.5-point favorites at Green Bay.
“I can guarantee you I'm taking the Bears for Ring of 107.”
100%Cover at the stated line is black and white.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Lions are not a good team this season.
“You know why I went too low? Because I don't think the Lions are good.”
40%'Not good' needs a proxy, such as the Lions' final record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Jacoby Brissett throws for 440 yards against the Lions.
“This is where Brissette goes for 440.”
90%The stat line settles it, though it's likely hyperbole.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Cardinals cover +4.5 against the Lions.
Lions are 4.5-point favorites in Arizona.
“I like the cards in that game.”
95%Cover is black and white; stated as a lean.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Browns' strong start doesn't last.
“I wasn't buying this Browns thing”
35%Vague; the Browns' record from here on is the only proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Browns beat the Jets.
“I think they could beat the Jets.”
75%Final score settles it; 'could' hedges it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The line flips and the Browns close as favorites over the Jets.
The Jets opened as 1.5-point favorites.
“I think that ends up being Brown's favorite in that game.”
95%ESPN closing line settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Chargers make a trade before their game against the Broncos.
“i'm sure there will be trades and maybe even a firing before we get to this”
80%Transactions are public; the deadline is the Broncos game.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Joe Burrow throws five touchdowns against Miami.
“This has all the makings of a five -touchdown Joe Burrow game.”
100%Burrow's passing touchdown count in one game box score gives a clear yes or no.
How it’s graded: Joe Burrow throws 5 or more passing touchdowns in the Bengals' next game against the Dolphins after 2026-10-05. Source: Official NFL box score (NFL.com or ESPN game log). Settles: Final whistle of the next 2026 Bengals-Dolphins game.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Bengals cover a teased line against the Dolphins.
“I think I will.”
70%Assumes a standard 6-point teaser off −7.5, since the size wasn't stated.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- Jayden Daniels plays against the Giants.
“I factored in Daniels because I assume he's back next week.”
100%Whether he logged a snap is a plain yes or no in the box score.
How it’s graded: Jayden Daniels takes at least one offensive snap in Washington's game against the Giants the week after Oct 5, 2026. Source: Official NFL box score / play-by-play for Commanders vs. Giants. Settles: Final whistle of the Commanders-Giants game, week of Oct 12.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Falcons are a terrible team this season.
“I'm still gravitating toward the Falcons are terrible.”
40%'Terrible' needs a proxy, such as the Falcons' final record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Lamar Jackson plays against Atlanta despite his ankle.
“Lamar, I know he has an ankle thing, but he'll play.”
100%Whether he played is in the box score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Brewers beat the Rays in the World Series.
Pays 10-1 on FanDuel.
“I'm going Brewers over the Rays”
100%World Series result is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Rays finish with 100 wins.
“And the Rays are going to have a hundred wins probably after tomorrow.”
85%Final win total settles it; 'probably' hedges it slightly.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Aces win the WNBA title.
“I bet on the Aces to win the title after round one”
100%Title winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The NFC North finishes Bears, Vikings, Lions, Packers.
House's exact-order bet: Bears, Vikings, Lions, Packers at 9-1.
“I think that's the right order.”
100%Final division order is in the standings.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
