Clippers Rock Bottom 9.0, Plus Charles Barkley on the Clips, 76ers, Lakers, ESPN, and Why He Loves Josh Allen
TL;DR
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- Bill calls the NBA's Clippers punishment the harshest in league history: five first-round picks gone, Ballmer suspended a year and fined $30M, Lawrence Frank out six months, while Kawhi got off with a small fine and a move to Toronto. He argues the real victims are Clipper fans, including season-ticket holders like himself.
- Charles Barkley says the Clippers are bad at cheating and got what they deserved. He still can't explain why the Celtics traded Jaylen Brown to Philly, a move he says pulled LeBron there too, and he insists the Lakers pushed LeBron out rather than LeBron leaving.
- Barkley wants to bet that OKC and San Antonio win five of the next ten titles. He calls the Knicks a one-and-done champion, thinks the Lakers will be better than expected, and names Indiana and Utah as sleepers.
- On football, Barkley picks Buffalo to beat Seattle 21–17 in the Super Bowl, while Bill has Seattle repeating over Houston. Barkley also explains that he and Ernie Johnson are a package deal, so next season is likely his last on TV.
Segments
3▸
00:00
Intro
Bill previews the coming week: a Rewatchables on Aliens, a fantasy-football takeover, and live Netflix shows on Sunday (Guess the Lines Week 1 and NFL futures with Sal), Wednesday and Thursday. He also recaps a Fenway trip with family and explains that Barkley was booked weeks ago, before the Clippers news broke.
00:01
The Clippers get punished
Bill walks through the punishment from the league's investigation, the largest the NBA has ever handed out. It costs the Clippers five first-round picks (with their 2028 pick likely headed to Boston on top of that), suspends Ballmer for a year with a $30M fine, and suspends Lawrence Frank for six months. Kawhi, meanwhile, gets a $700K fine and a trade to Toronto. Bill lays out the report's sniff-test evidence: no-show endorsement deals with four companies that had never paid anyone that much, and emails about money flowing back and forth. He compares the fallout to how the Joe Smith penalty wrecked Kevin Garnett's Minnesota prime, then runs through the franchise's long history of curses and blunders. He also wonders whether Ballmer should have been forced to choose between selling the team and accepting the penalty, and argues that fans and season-ticket holders deserve a way out. His conclusion: the Clippers have found a new rock bottom.
00:21
Charles Barkley on the Clippers, ESPN, and more!
Barkley says the Clippers deserved the penalty and could at least have filmed a fake commercial. He tells a story about the Rockets reneging on a promise to make up his pay cut for Pippen, and he pitches two rule changes: a ban on raising ticket prices when a team is below .500, and one lottery ball per lottery team. He also argues it's impossible to be bad at sports if you know what you're doing. On the summer's moves, he calls Boston's Jaylen Brown trade to Philly one of the craziest he's seen, says the Lakers moved on from LeBron, and says Cleveland would have been his pick had LeBron gone there. He offers to bet that OKC and San Antonio win five of the next ten titles, calls the Knicks one and done, likes the Lakers, and names Indiana and Utah as sleepers. He then vents about ESPN's thin early-season schedule and explains that his retirement is tied to Ernie Johnson's. For the NFL, he backs Josh Allen and Buffalo to beat Seattle 21–17, calls Dallas a sleeper because Jerry Jones has been quiet, and says Seattle is a disrespected champion. Bill has Seattle repeating over Houston. They finish by agreeing the NBA needs a team in Seattle.
Predictions on the record
Graded so far: 0–0 (—)
Transcripts don’t label speakers, so each take has a speaker confidence score for who said it (hover it for the reasoning). Each take also has a gradeability score: 100% means it can be cleanly confirmed or refuted, and 0% means pure opinion. Click a tier to filter.
- The Clippers draw fewer fans over the next couple of years than at any point in franchise history.
“They, I think, will have less fans over the next couple of years than they've ever had at any point in the history of the franchise”
50%Attendance is public, but 'fans' and 'next couple of years' need a proxy and a window.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Without first-round picks, the Clippers can't land a star free agent in 2027 or 2028.
“when you don't have picks, you can't get somebody like Jokic or Giannis to show up in 2027 or 2028.”
55%Signings are public, but 'somebody like Jokic or Giannis' needs a definition of star.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Clippers' 2028 first-round pick ends up with the Celtics.
“This 2028 pick they have, it's probably going to the Celtics unprotected.”
70%Draft records settle it, but the call is hedged with 'probably' and depends on the pick swap.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Clippers don't contend over the next five years.
“Well, the Clippers are not going to be running for the next five years anyway.”
50%'Not running' needs a proxy, such as no deep playoff runs over five seasons.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Charles Barkley)
- OKC or San Antonio wins the Western Conference every year for the next five years.
“everything in the West is going through OKC and San Antonio the next five years”
70%Graded as OKC or San Antonio winning the West each year; the window is five seasons.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Charles Barkley)
- The NBA title runs through San Antonio and OKC for the next five years.
“NBA championship going through San Antonio and OKC the next five years, not just the West.”
65%Title winners are public, but 'going through' is loose and the window is long.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Charles Barkley)
- With Jalen Brown and LeBron, the 76ers contend in the East.
“all of a sudden they get Jalen they are back in contention”
40%'In contention' needs a proxy, such as seeding or playoff depth.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Charles Barkley)
- Jayson Tatum returns to MVP-caliber form after a full offseason.
“when Jason gets a chance to have an entire offseason summer, he's going to come back to being an MVP caliber player”
55%'MVP caliber' needs a proxy, such as MVP votes or an All-NBA team.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Charles Barkley)
- The defending-champion Knicks regress this season.
“I think that Knicks thing was one of the greatest runs, but I think they're going to regress a little bit.”
55%'Regress a little' needs a proxy, such as fewer wins or an earlier playoff exit.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Charles Barkley)
- Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle become the next Steph and Klay.
“They're going to be the new Steph and Clay.”
25%A comparison to Curry and Thompson is taste, with no clear test.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Charles Barkley)
- The Spurs and OKC are the teams to beat for the next 10 years.
“they're going to be the team to beat with OKC for the next 10 years in the NBA.”
50%'Team to beat' needs a proxy, and the window is ten years.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Charles Barkley)
- OKC and the Spurs combine for at least five titles in the next 10 years.
Offering to take the bet if a book posts it.
“If you say, give me OKC and the Spurs, they're going to win five championships in the next 10 years.”
90%Title count is public; only the 10-year window holds it back.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Charles Barkley)
- OKC and the Spurs win fewer than five titles in the next 10 years.
Responding to Barkley's five-titles-in-10-years bet.
“that's not going to happen”
90%Title count is public; the 10-year window is far off.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- OKC and the Spurs combine for four or more titles in the next five years.
Bill: 'you're over… three and a half titles for OKC and the Spurs' over the next five years.
“oh yeah for sure”
90%Title count is public; the five-year window is long.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Charles Barkley)
- The Lakers are better than people expect.
“I think they're going to be better than people realize.”
40%'Better than people realize' needs a proxy, such as wins against the preseason total.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Charles Barkley)
- The Lakers don't win the championship this season.
“I don't think they're going to win the championship.”
95%The title winner is public record; 'I don't think' is a slight hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Charles Barkley)
- The Knicks don't repeat as champions.
“I think they're one and done.”
95%Whether the Knicks repeat is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Charles Barkley)
- The Eastern Conference is better than the Western Conference this season.
“the Eastern Conference has become better than the Western Conference”
45%'Better' needs a proxy such as the interconference record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Charles Barkley)
- The Wizards have a good team this season.
“even though Washington, which is going to have a good team”
45%'Good team' needs a proxy, such as a winning record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Charles Barkley)
- The Heat don't win the championship.
“Do I think they're going to win a championship? No”
95%The title winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Charles Barkley)
- With Giannis and Bam, the Heat are a good team.
“they got a lot of spots to fill, but they're going to be a good team”
45%'Good team' needs a proxy, such as a winning record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Charles Barkley)
- The Nets are the only bad team in the Eastern Conference.
“the only team I can see that stinks in the Eastern Conference is Brooklyn Nets.”
40%'Stinks' needs a proxy, such as the only sub-.500 or bottom team in the East.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Charles Barkley)
- The Hawks are a good team this season.
Arguing there are no bad teams in the East besides Brooklyn.
“Atlanta's got a good team now”
50%'Good team' needs a proxy such as a winning record or a playoff berth.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Charles Barkley)
- The Magic have a good team.
“Orlando's going to have a good team.”
45%'Good team' needs a proxy, such as a winning record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Charles Barkley)
- The Hornets are a good team this season.
Arguing there are no bad teams in the East besides Brooklyn.
“Charlotte's got a good team”
50%'Good team' needs a proxy such as a winning record or a playoff berth.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Charles Barkley)
- The Pacers are a sleeper and turn out really good.
“Indiana's going to be one of my sleepers”
45%'Sleeper' needs a proxy, such as beating the preseason win total.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Charles Barkley)
- The Utah Jazz surprise people this season.
“You know a team that's going to surprise people this year? The Utah Jazz.”
40%'Surprise people' needs a proxy, such as beating the preseason win total.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Charles Barkley)
- The Jazz make the playoffs if they keep their star.
Weighing whether Utah keeps or trades its star (Markkanen).
“They could be a playoff team with him”
55%Hedged with 'could' and conditional on Utah keeping its star, though a playoff berth is easy to check.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Charles Barkley)
- The Jazz are dangerous this season if Peterson is good right away.
“I'm with you on Utah because the X factor for them is if Peterson is good right away”
35%Conditional on Peterson, and 'dangerous' is vague.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Barkley retires from TV after next season (if Ernie Johnson retires too).
“next year is my last year for 100%, Bill”
75%Public record will settle it, but it depends on Ernie Johnson also retiring.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Charles Barkley)
- The Cowboys are a sleeper and turn out really good.
“So they're going to be really good men.”
45%'Really good' needs a proxy, such as a playoff berth.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Charles Barkley)
- The Broncos are the AFC favorite.
“this might be the favorite in the AFC.”
35%'Might be the favorite' is hedged; it could be graded by whether Denver wins the AFC.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Charles Barkley)
- The favored Rams don't win the Super Bowl.
On the Rams being the prohibitive Super Bowl favorite.
“So anytime I ever see somebody that's a prohibitive favorite, I just don't, I'm not buying it.”
55%Implicit fade, graded here as the Rams not winning the Super Bowl.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Texans and Seahawks meet in the Super Bowl.
“Houston and Seattle in the Super Bowl”
100%The Super Bowl matchup is public record.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Seahawks win back-to-back Super Bowls.
“I have Seattle winning back to back”
100%The Super Bowl winner is public record.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bills beat the Seahawks in the Super Bowl.
“the Buffalo Bills are going to win the Super Bowl over Seattle”
100%The Super Bowl result is public record.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bills beat the Seahawks 21–17 in the Super Bowl.
Final score of his Bills–Seahawks Super Bowl pick.
“21 -17”
100%The exact score settles from the box score.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Suns don't win a championship anytime soon.
“We're not going to win a championship.”
55%Title winners are public, but no timeframe is given.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Charles Barkley)





















