The Bill Simmons PodcastDrake Mayday, a Raiders Revival, Bleakest 0-3 Teams, MLB Playoffs, and Guess the Lines With Cousin Sal
TL;DR
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- Live on Netflix after Rams–Broncos, long after midnight on the East Coast: a brutal Week 3 for both hosts’ teams and for bettors, with Jameis, Mariota, Deshaun and Kyler all winning.
- Bill relays his dad’s running commentary on the Pats’ loss to Jacksonville. Drake Maye looks lost, and Sal, who coined “Drake Maybe,” almost feels bad for him.
- The Raiders are 3–0, but Bill would bet against a playoff run given their schedule. The Chargers could start 0–6, and Bill expects Harbaugh rumors.
- Guess the Lines for Week 4: Bill nails 6 lines exactly, Sal goes for Bills −8, and Bill grabs Browns and Raiders money lines. Then the MLB playoffs, a fantasy-baseball heartbreak, and Parent Corner.
Segments
8▸
00:01
Rams–Broncos
Denver scores 30 in the second half after Stafford’s pick-six and a phantom pass interference call that even the rules analyst disowns. Neither host is worried about the 1–2 Rams; the Bo Nix second-half routine is familiar.
00:07
Ravens–Cowboys and Patriots–Jaguars
Sal relives Dallas’s clock-management collapse in Brazil, which Mike Tomlin picked apart at halftime. Bill shares his dad’s in-game quotes (“It’s like I’m watching Mac Jones again”) as the Pats manage 29 points on 30 drives, and they score each team’s case for “year from hell.”
00:27
Raiders–Saints and Texans–Colts
Kirk Cousins has three-plus TD passes for a third straight game and Brock Bowers is back, but Bill points to a brutal next nine games. Houston is 0–3 again, and DeMeco Ryans’ fourth-down decisions get questioned.
00:33
Chargers–Bills and Seahawks–Commanders
Buffalo wins despite five turnovers. Bill sees a real 0–6 path for the Chargers and expects Harbaugh to start eyeing the exit. Seattle out-gains Washington 437–258 and still loses, killing everyone’s teaser.
00:39
Vikings–Bucs, Cardinals–49ers, Chiefs–Dolphins, Bengals–Steelers, Panthers–Browns
Tampa is 0–12 against the spread and Baker dislocates his thumb. Brock Purdy is the September MVP, a bad omen historically. A ghost roughing call goes Mahomes’ way, Joe Burrow is 1–34 when trailing late, and Deshaun Watson has two straight game-winning drives.
00:54
Guess the Lines: Week 4
Bill guesses every Week 4 spread before Sal reads the real one. Bill nails six exactly; Sal’s worst misses are the Giants (4.5 vs. 1.5) and Ravens (10.5 vs. 11.5). Bill takes the Browns and Raiders money lines and bans Kyler Murray from teasers. See the scorecard below.
01:20
MLB playoffs
Bill gives the Red Sox little chance against the Yankees with a dead lineup and key relievers hurt. Both doubt the White Sox can beat Houston. Bill’s AL keeper league is lost on the last day when Kade Anderson takes a line drive off his arm.
01:28
Parent Corner
Sal’s son gets Little Leaguer’s elbow and, to Sal’s dismay, physical therapy. Bill’s daughter wrote about his “you’re fine” sideline habit, which he now can’t say. Sal’s kidney stone is the punchline to Bill’s hot-water-and-lemon routine.
Guess the Lines — Week 4
Each guess is how many points the favorite lays (negative means the underdog is favored). Green marks the closer guess, and dark green an exact hit. “Real” is the line as read on the show.
Bill wins Week 4, 9–2–4 on games. Guess the Lines →
| Game | Bill | Sal | Real | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Steelersover Browns | 1.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | PIT 24 @ CLE 27 ↗ |
 Coltsover Commanders | 3 | 1.5 | 3.5 | IND 30 @ WSH 13 ↗ |
 Billsover Patriots | 6.5 | 8 | 6.5 | NE 29 @ BUF 26 ↗ |
 Bengalsover Jaguars | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | JAX 22 @ CIN 17 ↗ |
 Ramsover Eagles | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | LAR 24 @ PHI 20 ↗ |
 Texansover Cowboys | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | DAL 34 @ HOU 30 ↗ |
 Chiefsover Raiders | 4.5 | 4 | 4.5 | KC 30 @ LV 27 ↗ |
 49ersover Broncos | 3 | 3 | 2.5 | DEN 14 @ SF 24 ↗ |
 Bearsover Jets | 2.5 | 2 | 3 | NYJ 12 @ CHI 23 ↗ |
 Buccaneersover Packers | 3 | 5 | off | GB 17 @ TB 14 ↗ |
 Seahawksover Chargers | 6.5 | 6 | 6.5 | LAC 23 @ SEA 30 ↗ |
 Giantsover Cardinals | 1.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | ARI 24 @ NYG 36 ↗ |
 Ravensover Titans | 8 | 10.5 | 11.5 | TEN 18 @ BAL 24 ↗ |
 Vikingsover Dolphins | 8.5 | 6.5 | 9.5 | MIA 10 @ MIN 15 ↗ |
 Lionsover Panthers | 2.5 | 3.5 | 3 | DET 26 @ CAR 32 ↗ |
 Saintsover Falcons | 2 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 10/5 - 8:15 PM EDT ↗ |
Predictions on the record
Graded so far: 10–3 (77%)
Transcripts don’t label speakers, so each take has a speaker confidence score for who said it (hover it for the reasoning). Each take also has a gradeability score: 100% means it can be cleanly confirmed or refuted, and 0% means pure opinion. Click a tier to filter.
- The Rams recover from their 1–2 start.
“I'm not that worried about them.”
30%A vibe with no timeframe or threshold for what 'worried' means.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- At least six AFC teams win 10 or more games.
Arguing a Rams loss mattered less than a Broncos loss would have.
“it feels like at least six teams that are going to be in double figures for wins”
75%Countable from final standings, but 'feels like' hedges it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Jaguars finish with a bottom-10-to-12 defense in the league.
“I'm going to say it's in the bottom 10 to 12 defenses in the league.”
60%Season defensive rankings can check it, but no metric is named.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Patriots win at least 10 games.
Restating and regretting his preseason pick of 10 Patriots wins.
“I'm mad at myself for going”
90%Win total settles from the final standings; he regrets the pick but hasn't withdrawn it.
Who said it (75%): Unlabeled line, but it continues Bill's complaint about his own Patriots having no edge rushers.
Result: Currently 2–2, 2nd in the AFC East, the AFC 7 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- Robert Saleh is the first NFL head coach fired this season.
Bill asked who the first coach fired would be.
“but I think it's going to be Salah”
95%The order of firings is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Todd Bowles is not fired by the Buccaneers the day after the game.
Bill floated that Todd Bowles could be fired the next day.
“he's not getting fired tomorrow”
85%A firing the next day is public record; 'tomorrow' is a little loose.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Saints win the NFC South (the 4 seed).
After Bill said the Saints could sneak in as a 7 seed.
“Oh, well, the Saints are going to have a four.”
80%Settles from final standings, though it was half a joke.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 1–2, 3rd in the NFC South (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Raiders miss the playoffs.
Citing a brutal nine-game stretch for the 3–0 Raiders.
“I would bet the no playoffs for them”
95%Settles from final standings.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 3–1, 2nd in the AFC West, the AFC 6 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The NFC South winner finishes 7–10.
Restated preseason call; asked to drop it to 6–11, Sal said 'Maybe soon.'
“You predicted that they would go four 7 -10 teams and 7 -10 with the division”
90%The division winner's record settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bills win the rest of their games.
Said after the Chargers failed to steal a sloppy Bills game.
“Otherwise, they're just going to run the table.”
75%Going 17–0 is checkable in the standings, but the claim sounds partly hyperbolic.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 3–1, 1st in the AFC East, the AFC 3 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- Harbaugh gets linked to college jobs soon
“We'll hear his name being thrown around, I think, for college pretty”
35%“Name thrown around” is rumor, not an outcome
Who said it (90%): Bill references his Thursday conversation with Pelissero
Result: Five days later Bill learns Harbaugh can’t return to college because of NCAA penalties and says he thinks Harbaugh is sticking around (Hello Cleveland, 00:22:08).
- Jim Harbaugh leaves the Chargers to coach in college (USC) next season.
Bill expects Harbaugh to bail on the 0–3 Chargers for college.
“he's got a million outs and he'll be coaching USC next year”
70%A coaching move is public record, but 'or something' and the joke tone hedge it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Seahawks beat the Chargers.
“And I don't think they're losing two games in a row.”
95%Settles from the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 7
- The Chargers miss the playoffs.
After hearing the Chargers' odds (about −700 to miss).
“might do that.”
85%Settles from standings; 'might' makes it a lean, not a bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the AFC West (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Vikings are a good team this season.
Reversing his earlier call that the Vikings would struggle.
“Like, they're going to be good.”
45%'Good' needs a proxy such as a winning record or a playoff berth.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Cardinals are a dangerous team this season.
“I think that's a frisky team.”
35%'Frisky' and 'watch out team' are vibes with no record to check.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The 0–3 Texans get to 5–5
“I feel like they're going to be five and five by the”
85%The Texans’ record after their next seven games
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Texans don't get the AFC's 1 seed.
Walking back their August pick of Houston as the AFC 1 seed.
“probably not going to get the one seed like we predicted in August”
85%Final seeding settles it; 'probably' hedges.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Steelers are 6–2 after their next five games.
“They might be like six and two”
75%The record after eight games is checkable, but 'might be like' hedges it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Browns beat the Steelers (moneyline bet).
Thursday night, Steelers at Browns.
“I'm betting the Browns money line”
100%Moneyline bet; settles from the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 3
- The Bills–Patriots line closes at Bills −7.
The posted line was Bills −6.5.
“It probably ends at seven, right?”
85%ESPN closing line settles it; 'probably' hedges.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Closed BUF -7
- The Bengals–Jaguars line drops to Bengals −1.5 by Sunday.
Guess the Lines; the line was Bengals −2.5.
“that moves to minus one and a half”
70%The closing line settles it, but 'maybe' hedges it and no automatic rule covers a line dropping.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bengals–Jaguars line doesn't reach Bengals −3.
The line was Bengals −2.5.
“I don't think it gets to three that's for sure”
90%The closing line settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The NFC East winner finishes 10–7.
“it does feel like 10 -7 is going to take the NFC East”
85%The division winner's record settles it; 'feel like' hedges.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- If Nico Collins plays, the Texans–Cowboys line moves to Texans −3.
The line was Texans −2.5.
“I think if Nico plays, that goes to three.”
80%The closing line settles it, but only if Nico Collins plays.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Raiders are a live underdog against the Chiefs.
“Raiders are a live dog in that game.”
50%'Live dog' implies a real shot to win, which is close to unfalsifiable.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Raiders beat the Chiefs (moneyline bet).
Chiefs −4.5 at the Raiders.
“I'm going to just bet the money line.”
100%Moneyline bet; settles from the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Lost by 3
- The Packers and Chargers finish among the eight or nine worst teams.
“I don't see how they're not two of the eight or nine worst teams from watching all the teams and all the games.”
70%Final records (bottom nine) serve as the proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Baker Mayfield doesn't play against the Packers.
Baker Mayfield dislocated his thumb late in Week 3.
“He's not playing.”
85%The box score shows whether Mayfield played; the quick self-hedge lowers it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Baker Mayfield isn’t in the box score
- The Cardinals cover +1.5 against the Giants.
Leaning toward this as his Ringer 107 pick; the line is Giants −1.5.
“I like the cards.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 12
- The Ravens beat the Titans.
The line was Ravens −11.5; floated as a teaser leg.
“So, the Ravens are going to win.”
95%Settles from the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Won by 6
- The Seahawks beat the Chargers.
Floated as a teaser leg.
“The Seahawks are going to win.”
95%Settles from the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Won by 7
- The Ravens, Seahawks and Vikings all cover in a 10-point teaser.
Ten-point teaser idea off Ravens −11.5, Seahawks −6.5 and Vikings −9.5; Bill then bans Kyler Murray from teasers.
“And the one you're about to say could be the third.”
75%Each leg grades from the scores, but it's a teaser idea, not a confirmed bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Vikings beat the Dolphins by 10 or more.
Brian Flores, now Minnesota's DC, is suing the Dolphins.
“Oh, Flores is going to crush”
90%Graded here as a 10+ point win.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Won by 5
- Tetairoa McMillan has a big receiving game against the Lions.
“he's going to have a lot more fun this week against the Detroit Lions”
75%Graded here as 75+ receiving yards ('big game').
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Tetairoa McMillan: 192 receiving yards
- The Red Sox beat the Yankees in the Wild Card series.
Red Sox are about +145 in a best-of-three Wild Card series.
“The one I would take a shot at is your team.”
85%The series result settles it; it's a 'take a shot' lean.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Yankees beat the Red Sox in the Wild Card series.
He called Yankees −170 fair.
“I'd be really surprised.”
90%The series result settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Astros beat the White Sox in the Wild Card series.
“I'd be really surprised if they just beat”
90%The series result settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Lynx beat the Liberty in Game 2.
Leg of a tentative moneyline parlay.
“Lynx, Game 2, Vikings,”
95%The Game 2 result settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Vikings beat the Dolphins.
Moneyline parlay leg alongside Lynx Game 2 and the Chiefs.
“Vikings”
100%A straight-up result settles it from the box score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Won by 5
- The Chiefs beat the Raiders.
Leg of a moneyline parlay.
“and Chiefs.”
95%Settles from the final score; the parlay was tentative.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Won by 3
- UCLA beats Oregon in Week 6.
Proposed as a parlay leg.
“Can we throw UCLA at Oregon in week six?”
90%Settles from the Week 6 final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- UCLA wins at least seven games.
Restated preseason win-total bet.
“I had them for seven wins”
90%Final record settles it; the exact threshold is approximate.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- UCLA makes the College Football Playoff.
Futures bet at 22–1.
“I have them make the playoffs at 22 to one”
100%The College Football Playoff field is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The 49ers cover −2.5 against the Broncos.
Sign-off lean; the line was 49ers −2.5.
“maybe, laying the points”
90%Settles from the final score against the line; 'maybe' hedges.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 10
