NFL
New England Patriots
Takes
41
from 7 people
Linked games
5
Games
NE 10@
SEA 13·Final·Close SEA -3→
PIT 3@NE 20·Final·Close NE -4.5→NE 6@
JAX 35·Final·Close JAX -3→NE 29@
BUF 26·Final·Close BUF -7→
LV@NE·10/11 - 1:00 PM EDT·Close NE -3.5→Takes about the Patriots
Graded so far: 11–5 (69%)
Transcripts don’t label speakers, so each take has a speaker confidence score for who said it (hover it for the reasoning). Each take also has a gradeability score: 100% means it can be cleanly confirmed or refuted, and 0% means pure opinion. Click a tier to filter.
- Ringer Wise Guys · Oct 5, 2026The AFC East race stays competitive between the Patriots and Bills
“people are saying that this division is over, but I'm not so sure that's the case.”
40%'Not over' has no clear test; the final standings margin is the proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Raheem Palmer)
- Ringer Wise Guys · Oct 5, 2026The Patriots win the AFC East
Asking whether +210 for the Patriots to win the AFC East is the time to buy.
“I kind of like it man”
90%The division winner is black and white; this is a lean ('kind of like it') rather than a confirmed bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Currently 2–2, 2nd in the AFC East, the AFC 7 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- Ringer Wise Guys · Oct 5, 2026The Patriots' AFC East odds shorten to about +160 if they win next week and pull level for the division lead
House asked whether the Patriots' +210 AFC East price will get better.
“It'll probably go to like plus 160 if things go well next week and they're tied atop the division.”
45%Conditional and approximate, and futures prices aren't easily archived.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Anthony Dabbundo)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026Drake Maye gets back to his form from last season.
“So I think they build him back.”
35%'Build him back' needs a proxy, such as Maye's passer rating for the rest of the season.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026Brock Bowers has a big game against the Patriots.
“he's going to be a nightmare for the Patriots”
80%Graded here as 75+ receiving yards ("big game" for a receiver).
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Patriots cover −3.5 against the Raiders.
“I feel like this line's too low.”
75%Cover is black and white; "line's too low" is an implied lean.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 20266-point teaser: Seahawks −1 against the Chargers and Bills −1 against the Patriots.
Ringer 107, Week 4, his 6-point teaser.
“And sadly, I am teasing them with the Buffalo Bills down to minus one against the New England Patriots.”
100%Settles from the final scores; every leg has to cover its teased line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: 2-leg teaser
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026Patriots lose to Buffalo
“I think they're supposed to lose this game and I think they will”
100%Straight-up result
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Won by 3
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Patriots win at least one of their road games at Chicago and Miami.
“at Chicago at Miami they'll at least split those”
90%The two game results settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Patriots win at least 10 games.
Restating and regretting his preseason pick of 10 Patriots wins.
“I'm mad at myself for going”
90%Win total settles from the final standings; he regrets the pick but hasn't withdrawn it.
Who said it (75%): Unlabeled line, but it continues Bill's complaint about his own Patriots having no edge rushers.
Result: Currently 2–2, 2nd in the AFC East, the AFC 7 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Bills–Patriots line closes at Bills −7.
The posted line was Bills −6.5.
“It probably ends at seven, right?”
85%ESPN closing line settles it; 'probably' hedges.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Closed BUF -7
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 24, 2026The Jaguars–Patriots line moves from −2.5 to at least Jaguars −3 by kickoff.
“I think that would be three or three and a half by Sunday.”
85%ESPN closing line settles it; graded as Jaguars −3 or more.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Closed JAX -3
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 24, 2026A.J. Brown doesn't return until around November.
“AJ's gone probably till November.”
75%Return date is public, but "probably" and "till November" are loose.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 24, 2026The Jaguars cover −2.5 against the Patriots.
Ringer 107, Week 3 pick.
“I don't know what happened to them in the second half in Denver, but I think that Jags offense is really good.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Won by 29
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 24, 2026The Jaguars cover −2.5 against the Patriots.
Ringer 107, Week 3 pick.
“I am all over the Jags.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Won by 29
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 24, 2026The Patriots make a late-season run after a middling start.
“because I think they can still make a run”
45%"Make a run" needs a proxy, such as a winning record or playoff spot after November.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 24, 2026The Jaguars beat the Patriots.
“I'd be really surprised if the Pats won this game.”
95%Straight-up result settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 29
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Patriots score 40 against the Dolphins.
“You'll put up 40 against the Dolphins and who else?”
50%The score of the Pats–Dolphins game settles it, but it's half a joke with no date.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026The Patriots cover −4.5 against the Steelers.
Ringer 107, Week 2 pick.
“I'm taking the Patriots minus four and a half at home against the Steelers.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Won by 17
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026The Patriots beat the Steelers by 7 or more.
“And I just think they win by seven plus.”
100%The final score settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 17
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026The Patriots cover −4.5 against the Steelers.
Sunday-pick lean.
“It's a decent chance it's the Pats.”
75%Settles on the spread, but it's only a 'decent chance' lean.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Won by 17
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026AJ Brown scores 10+ touchdowns
“A.J. Brown, 10 -plus touchdowns”
95%A futures bet from their preseason futures draft, restated here; season touchdown total
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026The Patriots have a solid season despite the Week 1 loss.
Asked whether any of his 10-plus-win teams that lost in Week 1 worry him.
“I think the Pats are going to be okay.”
40%"Okay" needs a proxy such as a winning record or a playoff spot.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 9, 2026The Patriots go 6–11.
Right after the Week 1 loss to Seattle.
“I just feel like we're going 6 -11 now.”
75%Final record settles it, but it's despairing hyperbole right after a loss.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 2nd in the AFC East, the AFC 7 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 9, 2026The Patriots' offensive line is about league average this season.
“can they just be a middle of the road offensive line sure”
30%"Middle of the road" needs a proxy such as a pass-block ranking.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 9, 2026Brock Bowers and A.J. Brown combine for about three catches in September.
“there's a chance they combined for three catches in September”
55%Catch totals are checkable, but "there's a chance" barely commits.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Danny Heifetz)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 9, 2026The Patriots miss the playoffs.
“and my Patriots season now feels like it might be over.”
60%Standings settle it, but "feels like it might be" is a heavy hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 2nd in the AFC East, the AFC 7 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 8, 2026The Patriots trade Christian Gonzalez.
“I'm worried they're going to trade him.”
60%A trade is a clear public record, but 'worried' is a hedge and there is no deadline.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Nick Wright)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 8, 2026The underdog Patriots stay competitive with the Seahawks in the opener.
Responding to Kevin Wilds' take that the Pats beat up on the Seahawks.
“They're a live dog tomorrow night.”
55%'Live dog' implies a cover or upset; the spread isn't stated.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 8, 2026The Patriots beat the Seahawks.
Parlay leg (Patriots moneyline plus the over), pitched during a FanDuel read.
“which would be the Patriots money line and the over”
100%Settles from the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 3
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 8, 2026A.J. Brown scores a touchdown against the Seahawks.
Same-game parlay leg, pitched during a FanDuel read.
“aj brown he's got to score a touchdown the first game”
100%Settles from the box score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: A.J. Brown: 0 receiving touchdowns
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 8, 2026The Patriots cover +4.5 against the Seahawks.
Same-game parlay leg, pitched during a FanDuel read.
“But Pats plus four and a half”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 3
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 8, 2026Patriots–Seahawks goes under 51.5.
Same-game parlay leg, pitched during a FanDuel read.
“the under 51 and a half because I think the defenses will be further ahead of the offenses”
100%Settles from the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: 23 total points
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 8, 2026Christian Gonzalez sits out the opener over his contract.
“might just be like I'm not playing tonight”
70%Whether he played is clear, but 'might' is a heavy hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Christian Gonzalez is in the box score
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Patriots cover +3.5 at Seattle.
Week 1 kickoff game in Seattle, Seahawks −3.5.
“I think the Pats are a live dog in this one.”
75%'Live dog' is graded here as covering +3.5; it's a lean, not a stated bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 3
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Patriots and Bills both win 10 or more games.
Futures draft, explaining his Jets-third pick.
“i think the pats and bills are 10 plus”
95%The standings settle whether both reach 10 wins.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Seattle and New England over 8.5 wins, Rams under 13.5 (+145)
“Seattle and New England together over eight and a half wins.”
100%Three teams’ final win totals
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026AJ Brown catches 10+ touchdowns (+240)
“All right, I'm going to do A.J. Brown 10 -plus receiving touchdowns.”
100%AJ Brown’s season receiving touchdowns
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Patriots are the AFC's 6 seed.
Futures draft, Patriots 6 seed at +1000.
“Pat succeed is plus a thousand”
100%The final seeding settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 2–2, 2nd in the AFC East, the AFC 7 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Patriots make the playoffs.
“I like them to make the playoffs.”
95%The playoff field settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 2–2, 2nd in the AFC East, the AFC 7 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Patriots win the AFC East.
Futures draft, +140.
“Pats to win the AFC East plus 140.”
100%Final division standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 2nd in the AFC East, the AFC 7 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
