The Bill Simmons PodcastHello Cleveland: Week 4 NFL Picks, NBA Award Leans, Raiders Realities, and Boston Despair
TL;DR
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- The Browns beat the Steelers on Thursday night, and Deshaun Watson looks competent again. Bill and House give Todd Monken the credit.
- Both hosts like the Rams −3 at Philadelphia. Bill doubles down on the Texans and, again, the Bucs with an undrafted rookie at QB.
- Pelissero goes through six NFL topics: the Joey Porter Jr. trade, JJ McCarthy to the Giants, Jayden Daniels’ elbow, the Packers’ problems, Drake Maye’s slump, and whether the Raiders are for real.
- Bill and his dad pick apart the Red Sox’s two-game playoff exit to the Yankees, the manager’s quick hooks, and the GM extension.
Segments
7▸
00:01 · with House
Browns–Steelers recap
Cleveland wins on a 56-yard field goal and an Aaron Rodgers interception to get to 3–1. Watson has strung together two and a half competent games, and House credits Todd Monken’s play-calling. Bill points to two receivers the Browns hit on in the draft and thinks they can make the playoffs but won’t be a top seed. Pittsburgh looks like a 9–8 type of team.
00:10
Fever–Aces elimination game
The Aces close out Indiana. A’ja Wilson scores 36 and goes 12-for-15 at the line, and the Fever’s guards go cold from three. Bill compares the matchup to the mid-2000s Suns versus Duncan’s Spurs. He’s also frustrated that the league keeps stepping into side controversies, like the fan incident, during its biggest moments.
00:17
Mailbag + Ringer 107 Week 4 picks
Quick mailbag: Drake Maye nicknames, Mike Tomlin’s Minecraft city, and the news that Jim Harbaugh can’t jump back to college because of his NCAA penalties. Then the picks (see below). Bill is 7–8 on the season and House is 8–7.
00:49
Jalen Duren signs + NBA award leans
Duren takes Detroit’s 5-year, $200M offer, and 82% of a live Netflix poll say he isn’t worth it. Bill likes Memphis over 29.5 wins. Futures they talk through: Luka to average 36+ (+340), Wemby as MVP favorite, Payton Pritchard at 20–1 for Sixth Man, and new Magic coach Sean Sweeney at 12–1 for Coach of the Year. House also gives Jim Harbaugh this week’s signature insult for a 4th-and-10 decision.
01:06 · with Pelissero
NFL six-pack
- Joey Porter Jr. to Dallas: His back-injury “hold-in” forced the move. Pelissero notes the same agent was behind the Jalen Ramsey and Micah Parsons standoffs.
- JJ McCarthy to the Giants: A 5th-round pick is roughly market value, and Minnesota sheds the guaranteed money and starts over in 2027.
- Jayden Daniels: He’s already practicing in an elbow brace. Week 5 is more realistic, with surgery likely after the season.
- Bucs rookie Jalon Daniels: An undrafted QB who played six years at Kansas, and the team clearly likes him.
- Packers: Guard play is so bad that they signed three veteran linemen. Parsons is back in Week 5 or 6.
- Drake Maye: Pelissero says it’s not the shoulder. The offense is disjointed and Maye is pressing. Missing AJ Brown, who is eligible again in Week 6, hurts.
- Raiders: Clint Kubiak’s calm, “anti-Raiders” culture has them looking real, and beating the Chiefs at home would put them in the playoff conversation.
01:49 · with Bill’s dad
Red Sox post-mortem
Boston is swept in a best-of-three by the Yankees. Both agree the manager panicked and pulled both starters before the end of the 5th. They doubt the GM extension, which they think the 32–5 midseason run made possible, and question the Rutschman deadline trade. The roster was hit hard by injuries all year. Still, it was the most fun Bill has had with a Sox season in years.
02:16 · with Bill’s dad
Celtics, Pats, and fall TV
Dad is a B− on Celtics excitement in his 54th year as a season-ticket holder, and the Paul George trade still isn’t settled for him. Bill maps out a path to 4–4 for the Pats. They wrap with Dad’s CBS and NBC procedural lineup and the case for seeding MLB playoff teams by record.
Predictions on the record
Graded so far: 17–10 (63%)
Transcripts don’t label speakers, so each take has a speaker confidence score for who said it (hover it for the reasoning). Each take also has a gradeability score: 100% means it can be cleanly confirmed or refuted, and 0% means pure opinion. Click a tier to filter.
- The Browns don't finish as the AFC's 1 or 2 seed.
“I don't think it's going to be a one seed or a two seed”
85%Final AFC seeding settles it, but no rule covers 'not a top-two seed', so it's graded by hand.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Steelers finish with 8 or 9 wins.
“They're going to be in that 8 -9, 9 -8, somewhere around there.”
85%Final standings settle it; graded on the stated 8–9 win range.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the AFC North (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Aces win the WNBA title.
“they're the best team and they're probably going to win the”
90%The champion is public record; 'probably' is a hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The WNBA Finals are Aces vs. Liberty.
“gonna get aces liberty again That's what's going to happen”
95%The finals matchup is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Jim Harbaugh stays with the Chargers despite the 0–3 start
“i think jim harbaugh is sticking around”
75%Checkable, but no timeframe given; grade at season’s end
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- Nico Collins plays for the Texans against the Cowboys.
“I assume he's back he's practiced today we won't know officially until tomorrow”
90%The box score shows whether he played; 'I assume' is a slight hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Nico Collins is in the box score
- Joey Porter Jr. plays for the Cowboys against the Texans.
“they traded for joey porter this week and might actually throw him out there”
80%Settled by whether he plays, but hedged with 'might'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Joey Porter Jr. isn’t in the box score; confirm by hand
- The Texans cover −3 against the Cowboys.
Ringer 107, Week 4 pick.
“So anyway, Texans minus three is my first one.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Lost by 4
- Texans beat Dallas by a field goal or so
“I think that they're going to win and I think they're going to win by”
100%A 2–5 point window stands in for "3 or 4" and "or so," and the final score settles it.
How it’s graded: Texans beat the Cowboys by 2 to 5 points (a field goal or so) in their 2026 regular-season matchup. Source: Official NFL final box score (NFL.com or ESPN). Settles: Final whistle of the 2026 Texans–Cowboys game.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Lost by 4
- The Texans beat the Cowboys.
Arguing the Texans won't start 0–4.
“with the amount of talent that they have And just because Nico Collins got hurt for two games, I can't buy it”
95%A moneyline lean on top of his spread pick, settled by the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 4
- The Rams cover −3 against the Eagles.
Ringer 107, Week 4 pick.
“I have no problem whatsoever laying the three with the LA Rams going into Philadelphia”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Won by 4
- Puka Nacua plays against the Eagles.
“Puka is back.”
95%The box score shows whether he played.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Puka Nacua is in the box score
- DeVonta Smith misses the Eagles' game against the Rams.
“But there's some indication that Devontae Smith is possibly going to miss.”
70%The box score settles it, but 'possibly' is a heavy hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: DeVonta Smith isn’t in the box score
- The Rams beat the Eagles.
“Rams would be 1 -3 if they lost this game. That seems inconceivable.”
95%A moneyline lean on top of his spread pick, settled by the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 4
- The Eagles aren’t a good team this season
“And I don't think the Eagles are good.”
40%“Not good” needs a stand-in, e.g. a losing record or missing the playoffs
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Rams line moves to −3.5 by kickoff.
“I think that could bump up to Rams three and a”
80%ESPN closing line settles it, but he hedged it on Puka playing.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Closed LAR -4.5
- The Rams cover −3 against the Eagles.
Ringer 107, Week 4 pick.
“So that was my second pick. Rams minus three.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Won by 4
- The Rams line moves to −3.5 by game time.
“might be three and a half by game time”
75%The ESPN closing line settles it, but it's hedged and tied to DeVonta Smith's status.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Closed LAR -4.5
- The Bengals cover −2.5 against the Jaguars.
Ringer 107, Week 4 pick.
“i'm gonna go ahead and take cincinnati at home laying only the two and a half against jacksonville”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Lost by 5
- Zach Charbonnet doesn't play against the Chargers.
“Charbonnet is not coming back yet.”
95%The box score shows whether he played.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Zach Charbonnet isn’t in the box score
- The Seahawks beat the Chargers.
“I don't see it.”
95%A moneyline lean behind his teaser leg, settled by the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 7
- 6-point teaser: Seahawks −1 against the Chargers and Bills −1 against the Patriots.
Ringer 107, Week 4, his 6-point teaser.
“And sadly, I am teasing them with the Buffalo Bills down to minus one against the New England Patriots.”
100%Settles from the final scores; every leg has to cover its teased line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: 2-leg teaser
- Patriots lose to Buffalo
“I think they're supposed to lose this game and I think they will”
100%Straight-up result
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Won by 3
- 6-point teaser: Seahawks −1 against the Chargers and Commanders +9.5 against the Colts.
Ringer 107, Week 4, his 6-point teaser.
“No, I'm going to back Washington getting nine and a half.”
100%Settles from the final scores; every leg has to cover its teased line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: 2-leg teaser
- Alec Pierce misses the Colts' London game against Washington.
“because Pierce is going to be out again”
95%The box score shows whether he played.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Alec Pierce isn’t in the box score
- Bucs–Packers is close; Tampa covers and might win
“I am going to take the Tampa Bay Bucks yet again, plus three and a half against Green Bay.”
95%Covering +3.5 is checkable; “maybe even win” is a hedge
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Lost by 3
- The Buccaneers cover +3.5 against the Packers.
Ringer 107, Week 4 pick.
“going to take the Tampa Bay Bucks yet”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Lost by 3
- The Buccaneers beat the Packers outright.
“I think Tampa can cover this and maybe even win”
75%Settled by the final score, but 'maybe' is a hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 3
- Jalen Daniels runs for more than 34.5 yards against the Packers.
“I have him over 34 and a half rushing yards.”
100%Box score rushing yards settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Jalen Daniels: 0 rushing yards
- The Chiefs cover −4.5 against the Raiders.
Ringer 107, Week 4 pick.
“Going to go ahead and lay the four and a half with Kansas City.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Won by 3
- The Falcons aren't a good team this season.
“And I don't think the Falcons are good.”
45%'Good' needs a proxy such as record or playoffs.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Raiders are a legitimately good team this season.
“I do think this Raiders thing is pretty real, though.”
45%'Pretty real' needs a proxy such as a winning record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Chiefs beat the Raiders in Las Vegas.
“Let's lay the smack down in Vegas.”
85%The final score settles it, but it's framed as the Chiefs' mindset rather than a pick.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 3
- Lions–Panthers goes over 41.5 points.
A teaser idea he looked at but didn't play.
“being able to tease that down to 41 and a half on a Monday night”
75%Final score settles it, but this was a teaser leg he considered rather than bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: 58 total points
- The Browns miss the playoffs
Answering the Netflix poll “Will the Browns make the playoffs?” (60% said no), Bill and House both side with no.
“I agree with no.”
100%The Browns make or miss the playoffs
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Grizzlies win more than 29.5 games.
Memphis's win total is 29.5.
“It's too low.”
95%Final win total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Memphis goes over 29.5 wins
“There's no tanking this year.”
100%Settles automatically from the final regular-season standings
How it’s graded: The Memphis Grizzlies finish the 2026 regular season with 30 or more wins. Source: ESPN final regular-season standings (saved in data/standings.js). Settles: After the 2026 regular season ends (Week 18).
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: No standings saved yet (run npm run snapshot)
- The Clippers are bad this season.
“We know that the Clippers are going to”
55%'Suck' needs a proxy such as a losing record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
- The Kings are bad this season.
“Kings are probably going to suck.”
50%A record has to stand in for 'suck'; hedged with 'probably'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
- The Raptors go over their win total.
“My other one was Toronto, but I got to do the mental gymnastics with them more.”
55%The win total wasn't stated and the lean is hedged.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Pacers outperform expectations.
“I think the Pacers are still being slept on.”
40%'Slept on' needs a proxy, such as beating their win total.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
- Luka Dončić averages 36+ points per game.
Luka to average 36+ points per game was +340.
“so 36 doesn't feel like a stretch”
85%Season scoring average settles it, but it's a lean at +340 rather than a firm call.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Lakers are bad this season.
“I think the Lakers are going to suck”
55%A record or seed has to stand in for 'suck'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
- Walker Kessler doesn't reach 2,000 minutes for the Lakers.
“He'd have to play 20 to 2300 minutes for good luck.”
60%Minutes played settle it, but the call is sarcasm rather than a stated number.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Luka Dončić has a huge statistical season and is the real MVP front-runner.
“I personally think Luka should be the favorite because he's number one and he's going to have a giant stat year.”
35%'Giant stat year' is vague, and 'should be favorite' is opinion.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Celtics bring Payton Pritchard off the bench.
“I think they're going to bring him off the bench”
70%Starts vs. bench appearances are a public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Payton Pritchard contends for Sixth Man of the Year.
“Pritchard's 20 -1 would be the other one I would look at for that”
50%A value lean, not a firm pick to win.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Jamahl Mosley's replacement Sean Sweeney contends for Coach of the Year with the Magic.
“Jumped out to me.”
45%A soft value lean; 'contends' needs a proxy such as vote share.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- If their season goes sideways, the Wizards push AJ Dybantsa for Rookie of the Year.
“then the thing they're going to play for is to Bansett win rookie of the fucking year”
30%Conditional on Washington's season collapsing, with no clear test.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
- Joey Porter Jr. gets a $30M-plus-per-year contract if he hits free agency.
“He's going to be a 30 -plus million -dollar corner”
60%Conditional on him reaching free agency, with no timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
- Joey Porter Jr. plays for the Cowboys this Sunday.
“maybe even as soon as this Sunday, his back's going to be healthy enough for him to play”
80%The box score shows whether he played; 'maybe' is a hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
Result: Joey Porter Jr. isn’t in the box score; confirm by hand
- The Cowboys aren't a contender this season, even with Porter.
“I don't think they have it regardless.”
40%'Have it' is vague; playoffs or record would stand in.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Jayden Daniels doesn't play in Week 4.
“I would say it's a long shot that he plays this week”
95%The box score shows whether he played.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
Result: Jayden Daniels isn’t in the box score
- Jayden Daniels plays in Week 5.
“bodes pretty well for him being back on the field in week five”
85%The Week 5 box score settles it; 'bodes well' is a hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- Jayden Daniels has elbow surgery after the season.
“he's probably going to have surgery”
70%A surgery report would settle it; hedged with 'probably'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
- Washington is a relevant team in the NFC East race.
Restating his preseason take.
“I thought Washington was kind of a sneaky team that could be relevant.”
40%'Relevant' needs a proxy such as playoff contention.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
- The Packers are a bad team this season.
“The Packers are terrible.”
50%'Terrible' needs a proxy such as a losing record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Packers recover from their slow start.
“I'm not as panicky about the Packers as I think other people are”
35%Vague; a record or playoffs would have to stand in.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
- Micah Parsons is back in the Packers lineup by Week 6.
“If it's not week five, it's going to be week six that he should be back in the lineup.”
85%Game logs show his return week.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
- Josh Jacobs returns to the Packers this season.
“I think he comes back at some point”
70%Games played settle it, but there's no timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
- The Jets hold three top-10 picks in the 2027 draft.
“They might have three of the top 10, you know, in this draft that has a bunch of quarterbacks.”
70%The draft order settles it; hedged with 'might'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Jets draft a quarterback in 2027, and Geno Smith is a one-year stopgap.
“This is probably a one year stop gap and they're drafting somebody in 2027.”
70%The 2027 draft record settles it; hedged with 'probably'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
- The Raiders make the playoffs if they play well against the Chiefs.
“I think they could be a playoff”
40%Conditional on a strong showing against the Chiefs, and 'could' is a hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Puka Nacua plays against the Eagles.
“all systems go for him to be back against the Eagles”
95%The box score shows whether he played.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
Result: Puka Nacua is in the box score
- Sonny Gray leaves the Red Sox this offseason.
“leave now because they yanked him”
80%Gray's offseason status settles it; hedged with 'probably'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Yankees make the World Series
“the Yankees have a legitimate chance to make the World Series”
60%Reaching the World Series is a matter of record, but “legitimate chance” hedges it
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- Celtics win fewer games than last year
“And Detroit will be way worse.”
100%Final win total under 56
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Raptors are one of the East's better teams.
“I think Toronto is going to be really good.”
55%A record or seed has to stand in for 'really good'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Cavaliers win about as many games as last season.
“Cleveland will be around the same.”
60%Comparable to last season's win total, but 'around the same' has no set range.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Celtics win fewer than 56 games.
“not going to win 56 games again”
95%The Celtics' final win total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill’s dad)
- The Celtics are a good team this season.
“going to be good.”
50%'Good' needs a proxy such as record or seed.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Patriots win at least one of their road games at Chicago and Miami.
“at Chicago at Miami they'll at least split those”
90%The two game results settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Dolphins finish with the worst record in the NFL.
“Miami is the worst team in the league”
60%Final standings could settle it, though it's phrased as a present-tense opinion.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Chargers are a bad team this season.
“but the Chargers are terrible.”
50%'Terrible' needs a proxy such as a losing record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
