The Bill Simmons PodcastMahomes or Allen (Again???) and a Clippers-Heavy Mailbag
TL;DR
▸
- Nick Wright says Josh Allen being the consensus best QB is unprecedented: no Super Bowl trip, no first-team All-Pro, and a four-turnover playoff loss last time out. Bill compares it to the 1999 NBA MVP void left by a slumping, injured Mahomes.
- On the Chiefs' post-ACL season: Bill pulled his Chiefs under bets because he can still see them winning 10 or 11 games. Nick thinks they'll be good, compares the year to 2022 after the Tyreek Hill trade, and may be the only person in the media picking them to win the Super Bowl.
- In the Clippers mailbag, Bill's theory is that a soft settlement was close until the Clippers leaked the ESPN 'no smoking gun' story and Adam Silver dropped the hammer. Both agree the penalties sink the franchise until around 2036 while Kawhi gets away to Toronto.
- Also covered: Jayden Daniels is too skinny and Washington should be bad, the Rams' and Niners' approaches to the Australia trip, Nick's new Sixers season tickets since the LeBron signing, and whether Ben Simmons lasts with the Kings.
Segments
3▸
00:00
Intro
Bill lays out a four-podcast week. He'll be live on Netflix after Patriots–Seahawks on Wednesday, and he and Joe House will do their Week 1 show and Ringer 107 picks after Rams–Niners on Thursday. He also mentions his fantasy draft, a Red Sox winning streak, and his hope that the Patriots finally pay their All-Pro cornerback.
00:01
A Josh Allen and Chiefs discussion
Nick argues that no consensus top quarterback has ever had a résumé as thin as Allen's. He calls Allen's signature win a loss, the 13-seconds game, and walks through four straight playoff exits capped by the turnover-filled Denver loss. Bill counters with Manning-vs-Brady parallels and calls it a 'reverse yeah-but,' where nothing is ever Allen's fault. They compare Mahomes's injury and slump to the post-2007 Patriots. Nick hopes Kenneth Walker forces teams out of light boxes, though Josh Simmons possibly missing Week 1 against Denver worries him. Both vent about New England not paying Christian Gonzalez, and Bill says he's prepared for a trade. Bill doubts Kelce has much left. Nick tells the story of Kevin Wilds throwing up after half a cigarette, and Bill calls the Patriots a live dog against Seattle. Nick closes by noting Vegas likes the Chiefs far more than the media does, and he warns of big overreactions if Mahomes looks different after the ACL.
00:36
Mailbag
A Clippers-heavy run comes first. Topics include Ballmer 'marrying the nanny' by blowing past the second apron, what would happen if he showed up to games anyway, and whether ESPN and Pablo Torre could both have been right. Bill explains his leaked-settlement theory, and both say the Dodgers story matters more. Nick calls the Kawhi trade the worst transaction in NBA history. They debate the biggest off-court villains (Donaghy, John Green, David Falk), consider whether Kawhi sat out over missing side money, and agree he's likelier than Durant to get a statue. Bill thinks the Clipper curse may require a move. They also pitch running the lottery with the Clippers in it anyway. The rest of the mailbag covers Jayden Daniels's durability and a bleak Commanders outlook, the Australia travel experiment, a 'Scottie Pippen Award' for movies, the Tupac verdict, and Ben Simmons joining the Kings (Nick thinks he makes it to opening day). Nick defends LeBron's durability as a new Sixers season-ticket holder, and they joke about LeBron getting his own train. They close with the Mighty Ducks sentencing question, whether explosive above-the-rim guards are extinct (Nick wants dunks worth three and custom three-point lines), and overplayed songs like Sweet Caroline and Mr. Brightside.
Predictions on the record
Graded so far: 3–3 (50%)
Transcripts don’t label speakers, so each take has a speaker confidence score for who said it (hover it for the reasoning). Each take also has a gradeability score: 100% means it can be cleanly confirmed or refuted, and 0% means pure opinion. Click a tier to filter.
- The Bills are not good this season.
“because I don't even think the Bills are going to be good this year”
50%A record has to stand in for 'good', and he sets no threshold.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Lamar Jackson and the Ravens fall short in the postseason again.
“Lamar does come up short in the postseason… Might again”
50%Hedged with 'might', and 'come up short' needs a proxy such as a playoff loss.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Nick Wright)
- The Chiefs win 10 or 11 games.
Explaining why he pulled two Chiefs bets before the futures draft.
“I could just see the Chiefs somehow going 11 and 6, 10 and 7 anyway”
70%The win total settles it from the standings, but 'I could see' is a soft hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 4–0, 1st in the AFC West, the AFC 1 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- Adding Kenneth Walker forces defenses off six-man boxes and opens up the Chiefs' offense.
“I think the Kenneth Walker edition changes things”
35%'Changes things' is vague; at best, run-game stats or box counts would stand in.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Nick Wright)
- The Patriots trade Christian Gonzalez.
“I'm worried they're going to trade him.”
60%A trade is a clear public record, but 'worried' is a hedge and there is no deadline.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Nick Wright)
- The underdog Patriots stay competitive with the Seahawks in the opener.
Responding to Kevin Wilds' take that the Pats beat up on the Seahawks.
“They're a live dog tomorrow night.”
55%'Live dog' implies a cover or upset; the spread isn't stated.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Chiefs are good this season.
“I think the Chiefs are going to be good”
55%'Good' needs a proxy such as a winning record or a playoff berth.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Nick Wright)
- The Chiefs win the Super Bowl.
Restating his preseason Super Bowl pick.
“I might be the only person who picked them to win the Super Bowl.”
95%The Super Bowl winner is a clear public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Nick Wright)
- The Chargers don't overtake the Chiefs in the AFC West.
“if the Chiefs slip and the Chargers actually do something, which won't happen”
50%'Do something' is vague; finishing ahead of the Chiefs in the standings is the proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Nick Wright)
- The Patriots beat the Seahawks.
Parlay leg (Patriots moneyline plus the over), pitched during a FanDuel read.
“which would be the Patriots money line and the over”
100%Settles from the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 3
- Joel Embiid plays only about 40 games this season.
“he plays 40 games a year.”
45%A games-played count settles it, but it's framed as a habit rather than a season call.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Clippers sue the NBA over their punishment.
“I think they might end up suing”
65%A lawsuit is public record, but 'might' hedges it and there is no timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- MLB has a lockout.
“That changed the entire landscape of baseball and is going to lead to a lockout.”
85%A lockout is public record; the causal link to the Dodgers story isn't checkable.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Kawhi Leonard gets a statue in a city before Kevin Durant does.
Nick asked who is more likely to get a statue in a city, Kawhi or Durant.
“Leonard 100 times”
20%No timeframe; statues may take decades.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Kevin Durant ends up in Seattle and earns a statue there.
“I still feel like there's a Seattle move for him”
20%Seattle has no team, and there is no timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Once Kawhi Leonard leaves the league, no one else in the NBA hires or works with Uncle Dennis.
Explaining why Uncle Dennis's ban is tied to the length of Kawhi's career rather than being for life.
“once Kawhi is out of the league, nobody else is hiring uncle Dennis”
35%It is far off and needs evidence that no one hires Kawhi's uncle once Kawhi retires.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Nick Wright)
- The Clippers aren't competitive again until around 2036.
“their best hope is around 2036”
30%Far off, and 'competitive' is vague.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Nick Wright)
- Steve Ballmer doesn't sell the Clippers.
“i don't see him doing it”
70%A sale is public record, but there is no timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- A.J. Brown scores a touchdown against the Seahawks.
Same-game parlay leg, pitched during a FanDuel read.
“aj brown he's got to score a touchdown the first game”
100%Settles from the box score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: A.J. Brown: 0 receiving touchdowns
- The Patriots cover +4.5 against the Seahawks.
Same-game parlay leg, pitched during a FanDuel read.
“But Pats plus four and a half”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 3
- Patriots–Seahawks goes under 51.5.
Same-game parlay leg, pitched during a FanDuel read.
“the under 51 and a half because I think the defenses will be further ahead of the offenses”
100%Settles from the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: 23 total points
- The Commanders are really bad this season.
“And I, and that team, I expect to be really bad.”
55%'Really bad' needs a proxy such as a losing record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Nick Wright)
- Jayden Daniels misses games to injury again.
“I don't think he can hold”
45%Graded as: Daniels misses at least one regular-season game to injury in 2026, after missing 10 games in 2025.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Nick Wright)
Result: Daniels dislocated his left elbow in Week 2 (Sept. 20, 2026) at Dallas. He was ruled out for Week 3 vs. Seattle, with Mariota starting, and his Week 4 status was still undecided on Sept. 30.
- Graded by: Bleacher Report ↗ Jayden Daniels Injury Update, New Timeline Revealed by Commanders GM After Elbow Dislocation · Sep 25, 2026
- The Commanders go under their win total.
Recapping his Washington bets from the futures draft with Sal.
“Unders, adjusted unders”
65%Settles from the standings, but the win-total number isn't stated.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The 49ers beat the Rams in Australia but struggle for weeks afterward from the travel.
Agreeing with an emailer that the 49ers win in Australia but are thrown off for two months.
“So I think that's super plausible.”
30%He only calls it plausible, and the slump is vague.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Nick Wright)
- Ben Simmons is still with the Kings on opening day.
“yes, I think he makes it to opening day”
90%Whether he is still on the roster on opening day is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Nick Wright)
- If Ben Simmons lasts to Thanksgiving, he stays with the Kings all season.
“if he makes it to Thanksgiving, he'll make it through the whole year”
70%Conditional on him lasting to Thanksgiving; the roster record settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Nick Wright)
- Ben Simmons doesn't play when the Kings visit Philadelphia.
“But I don't expect him to play when they play in Philly”
85%The box score of the Kings' game in Philadelphia settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Nick Wright)
- LeBron James is available for the 76ers in the playoffs.
“I believe he's available”
70%Playoff box scores settle it, but it depends on the 76ers making the playoffs.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Nick Wright)
- LeBron James doesn't live full time in New York City while playing for the 76ers.
Responding to an email about LeBron commuting between New York and Philadelphia.
“I'm not as convinced as everyone else that he's living full time in New York city”
30%Where he lives only settles through reporting and has no clear test.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Nick Wright)
- LeBron James splits his time between New York and Philadelphia, as JJ Redick did.
Responding to Nick doubting that LeBron lives full time in New York.
“No, he'll do what JJ did.”
25%Living arrangements are only known through anecdotal reporting.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Nick Wright)
- Christian Gonzalez sits out the opener over his contract.
“might just be like I'm not playing tonight”
70%Whether he played is clear, but 'might' is a heavy hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Christian Gonzalez is in the box score
