The Bill Simmons PodcastThe Knicks (and a Crowded East)
TL;DR
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- Bill and Zach Lowe both treat the defending-champion Knicks as the team to beat in the East. Lowe picks them to make the Finals, while Bill wonders whether title teams now get only about four years before wear and tear catches up.
- Bill counts 11 plausible playoff teams in the East for eight spots. Both hosts leave out Charlotte and Atlanta. For the third team out, Lowe says Orlando and Bill says Miami, mostly because he doesn't trust Giannis to stay healthy.
- They doubt Toronto's fourth-best odds to win the East because of Kawhi Leonard's playoff durability. They also cover the Pistons' contract standoff with Jalen Duren and the boom-or-bust Sixers with LeBron and Embiid.
- Anthony Jeselnik previews Jeselnik Book Club, which launches on The Ringer on September 30. He also talks about his new stand-up hour, the roast era, and how podcasts and viral clips are changing stand-up.
Segments
3▸
00:00
Intro
Bill plugs the new Rewatchables episode on Law Abiding Citizen. He explains that Zach Lowe was in town for lunch, so they decided to record an hour of basketball. He also previews Anthony Jeselnik's guest spot and his book club podcast, which is coming to The Ringer.
00:01
The Knicks and the East with Zach Lowe
After reminiscing about nearly hiring Lowe for Grantland, the two talk about the Knicks' title and its fallout. Topics include how long Wes and Leon's group can stay on top, the extensions the core players are due, Brunson hosting SNL and OG Anunoby's new fame. There are side trips into Tim Duncan's top-10 standing, the 2002 Kings, and how spacing changed the game. Then they handicap the crowded East, with Charlotte and Atlanta as their first two teams out and Orlando (Lowe) or Miami (Bill) as the third. They also cover Detroit's stalemate with Duren and Sabonis being on the trade block. Other topics are Giannis and Bam's fit in Miami, Philly's injury risk with Embiid and LeBron, Cleveland's ceiling, Haliburton's return in Indiana, and Kawhi's health making Toronto a risky East pick. They plan to do over/unders with House in mid-October.
01:07
Anthony Jeselnik on book clubs, roasts, and stand-up comedy
Jeselnik explains how his YouTube book club took off and what the weekly Ringer version will include: monthly book picks, author guests and Greg Rosenthal on the first episode. He and Bill trade favorite writers and talk about novelizations and books that beat their movies. Jeselnik describes his new touring hour and why stand-up has a shelf life for him. They revisit the Comedy Central roast era and the best specials ever, with Jeselnik naming Bring the Pain. He argues that podcasting and chasing viral clips are good for comedians' wallets but bad for stand-up as an art form.
Predictions on the record
Graded so far: 1–0 (100%)
Transcripts don’t label speakers, so each take has a speaker confidence score for who said it (hover it for the reasoning). Each take also has a gradeability score: 100% means it can be cleanly confirmed or refuted, and 0% means pure opinion. Click a tier to filter.
- The Knicks have about two more years as a title contender.
Asked how long the Knicks' window lasts after the title.
“Two years as a contender?”
30%No clear test for 'contender'; deep playoff runs over the next two seasons could stand in for it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Knicks' core players other than Brunson take less money to stay together.
Discussing upcoming extensions for Towns, Hart and Anunoby.
“I bet they'll all take, other than Brunson who has already done his part taking less”
45%Whether a deal is a discount is debatable, and it covers several unnamed contracts.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Zach Lowe)
- The Knicks win the Eastern Conference again.
“they are easily my bet my life team in the east”
85%Conference champion is a public record, but he hedges with 'unless they have injuries'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Knicks make the NBA Finals.
“as of now, I'm picking the Knicks to make the finals”
100%Whether a team reaches the Finals is a clear yes or no on the public record.
How it’s graded: The New York Knicks win the 2027 Eastern Conference Finals and play in the 2027 NBA Finals. Source: NBA.com or ESPN 2027 playoff results. Settles: End of the 2027 Eastern Conference Finals (~late May 2027).
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Knicks add another useful player during the season.
“They'll add another guy who helps them get through the season”
55%A signing is checkable, but 'helps them' is vague.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Zach Lowe)
- Josh Hart appears in the first 90 seconds of Brunson's SNL episode.
Jalen Brunson hosting Saturday Night Live.
“Josh Hart will be on within 90 seconds”
85%Checkable from the episode, but the 90-second mark needs timing by hand.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Zach Lowe)
- Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges appear together on Brunson's SNL episode.
Jalen Brunson hosting Saturday Night Live.
“Hart and Bridges together”
80%Checkable by watching the episode; 'together' is a little loose.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Miles McBride's teammate Jose Alvarado appears on Brunson's SNL episode.
Jalen Brunson hosting Saturday Night Live.
“you have to have Alvarado on the show”
70%Phrased as 'have to' rather than 'will', but an appearance is checkable.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Zach Lowe)
- The Packers beat the Falcons.
During a FanDuel 'early win' ad for Thursday's Falcons–Packers game: "Just bet the money line."
“I would do this with the Packers.”
90%The game result settles it; it's a lean during an ad read.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Hornets miss the playoffs.
Bill asked which three of 11 East contenders miss the playoffs.
“xing charlotte out right away”
100%Settles automatically from the final regular-season standings
How it’s graded: The Charlotte Hornets are not one of their conference’s 7 playoff teams when the 2026 regular season ends. Source: ESPN final regular-season standings (saved in data/standings.js). Settles: After the 2026 regular season ends (Week 18).
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: No standings saved yet (run npm run snapshot)
- The Hawks miss the playoffs.
Bill asked which three of 11 East contenders miss the playoffs.
“I'm a little worried about Atlanta, so I'll take Atlanta, Charlotte.”
100%The playoff field is a black-and-white public record; standings alone can't settle play-in results, so no automatic rule fits.
How it’s graded: The Hawks are not in the 2026-27 NBA playoff first round (losing in the play-in counts as missing). Source: NBA.com 2027 playoff bracket. Settles: End of the 2027 NBA play-in tournament.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Hornets and the Hawks both miss the playoffs.
Agreeing with Lowe's first two teams to miss.
“So we have the same first two.”
90%Playoff field is a public record; the call is only implied by 'same first two'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- One of the East's top seven teams underperforms because of injuries or randomness.
“I do think one of these teams toward the top seven is going to underperform because of injuries or randomness”
35%'Underperform' among the top seven is vague and unnamed.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Zach Lowe)
- The Magic miss the playoffs.
“I will say Orlando for now.”
100%Settles automatically from the final regular-season standings
How it’s graded: The Orlando Magic are not one of their conference’s 7 playoff teams when the 2026 regular season ends. Source: ESPN final regular-season standings (saved in data/standings.js). Settles: After the 2026 regular season ends (Week 18).
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Zach Lowe)
Result: No standings saved yet (run npm run snapshot)
- Jalen Duren signs a deal worth about $40 million a year.
“You could pay Joe and earn $40 million a year, which it seems like is going to happen.”
80%The contract's average annual value settles it; 'seems like' hedges it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Zach Lowe)
- The Pistons don't win a title while paying Jalen Duren over $40 million a year.
Arguing the Pistons should sign-and-trade Jalen Duren rather than pay him over $40M a year.
“you're not winning the title with that”
55%Conditional on a $40M+ Duren deal and has no clear timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Alperen Sengun never becomes a top-five or top-six defensive center.
“Shingun will never be.”
30%No timeframe, and there's no agreed ranking of defensive centers.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Zach Lowe)
- Jalen Duren's new Pistons deal totals between $195M and $200M.
“He'll be between 195 and 200.”
85%Contract total is public; reported figures may vary slightly.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Jalen Duren re-signs with the Pistons.
“I still expect them to pay him.”
100%A signing is a clear yes or no that public transaction records settle, and the deadline is fixed.
How it’s graded: Duren signs a multi-year (2+ season) contract or extension with the Pistons, not a qualifying offer, before the 2027-28 NBA regular season starts. Source: Official Pistons/NBA transaction announcements, ESPN or Spotrac. Settles: Opening night of the 2027-28 NBA regular season.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: On Oct 1, 2026, Duren agreed to a fully guaranteed 5-year, $200M extension with the Pistons, just before the qualifying-offer deadline. He has since appeared at a press conference with the team.
- Graded by: The Detroit News ↗ Jalen Duren, Pistons end standoff with five-year, $200 million extension · Oct 1, 2026
- Anthony Davis doesn't sign an extension with the Wizards.
Reacting to news that Anthony Davis and the Wizards delayed extension talks.
“something can be delayed that had no chance of happening”
70%An extension is public record, but no deadline is given.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Heat don't win the title.
Criticizing the Heat for paying mid-tier contracts.
“you're not winning the title”
90%The champion is public record; it's a thrown-in aside rather than a stated pick.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Heat struggle offensively because they lack pull-up shooting.
“i think they're going to struggle in that sense”
30%A pull-up shooting stat would have to stand in for 'struggle'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Zach Lowe)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo plays more than 59.5 games.
Lowe offered an over/under of 59.5 Giannis games.
“I would go over.”
100%Games played is a public box-score count with a clear 60-game threshold.
How it’s graded: Giannis Antetokounmpo plays in 60 or more regular-season games, for any team(s), in the 2026-27 NBA season. Source: Basketball-Reference or NBA.com game logs. Settles: End of the 2026-27 NBA regular season.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The 76ers' projected starting five plays together in fewer than 22.5 games.
Lowe's over/under of 22.5 games for Philly's projected starting five.
“Yeah, it's under.”
85%Lineup data settles it, but the 'projected starting five' needs defining.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Pacers make the playoffs.
“To me, they're a playoff team.”
95%Playoff field is a public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Raptors don't win the East.
Toronto has the fourth-best odds to win the East (+850).
“And I just think it's putting a lot of stock in Kawhi”
50%Implied fade of the Raptors' odds to win the East; not stated as a clear outcome.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Raptors are a strong regular-season team.
“I'm very high on the Raptors as a regular season team.”
45%Win total has to stand in for 'very high on'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Zach Lowe)
- Kawhi Leonard doesn't get through three playoff rounds without an injury.
“I just don't think Kawhi will play three playoff rounds without getting injured.”
75%Conditional on the Raptors winning two rounds; injury status is checkable.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Zach Lowe)
- The Celtics win a lot of regular-season games.
“I think they're going to win a lot of regular season games.”
55%Win total has to stand in for 'a lot'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Zach Lowe)
- UCLA's Serbian 17-year-old becomes Zach Lowe's favorite player within five years.
“This is going to be your favorite player five years from now.”
10%Lowe's taste five years out; no record to check.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Heat miss the playoffs.
“I would lean toward Miami because I don't trust Giannis to play 70 games”
90%Playoff field is a public record; framed as a lean.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo plays fewer than 70 games.
Explaining why he leans toward the Heat as the third East team to miss the playoffs.
“I don't trust Giannis to play 70 games”
85%Giannis's games played is a box-score count, but 'don't trust' is a soft hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Heat make the playoffs.
Pushing back on Bill's call that Miami misses the playoffs.
“I just trust, I guess I just trust Giannis plus Bam plus Spoh plus they're pretty deep.”
75%Standings settle it, but he hedges and allows a play-in route.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Zach Lowe)
- The Pistons finish in the East's top six.
“it's hard for me to see them falling out of the top six”
100%Settles automatically from the final regular-season standings
How it’s graded: The Detroit Pistons are the 6 seed or better in their conference when the 2026 regular season ends. Source: ESPN final regular-season standings (saved in data/standings.js). Settles: After the 2026 regular season ends (Week 18).
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Zach Lowe)
Result: No standings saved yet (run npm run snapshot)
- The Cavaliers win at least 45 games.
“Cleveland not winning 45 games would be shocking.”
95%Win total is in the standings; graded here as 45+ wins.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Joel Embiid plays fewer than 55 regular-season games.
“I would be Wildly happy As a basketball fan If he played 55 Regular season games”
55%The forecast is only implied by 'wildly happy if 55'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Zach Lowe)
- LeBron James plays this season with a chip on his shoulder.
“And then LeBron, I think, is going to have a huge FU on his shoulder this year.”
10%A motivation claim with no record to check.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Gregg Rosenthal is the first guest on the Jeselnik Book Club on The Ringer.
“We managed to find and get Greg Rosenthal.”
85%Checkable from the first episode's guest list.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Anthony Jeselnik)
- Nate Bargatze's comedy ages very well.
“I think Nate Bargatz is going to age incredibly well.”
10%Taste, with no record to check.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Anthony Jeselnik)
- Jeselnik stops releasing specials after his current hour.
“And I might do a Tosh where Daniel Tosh doesn't put out a special in 15 years.”
35%Heavily hedged and the timeframe is long.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Anthony Jeselnik)
- Jeselnik writes a book in his fifties.
“Like I think the fifties might be my book writing time”
35%Hedged ('might', 'if it works out') and years away.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Anthony Jeselnik)
- Comedians move to podcasting full time and give up theater touring.
“I think people would just transition full time and maybe eventually give up that theater money”
20%A broad industry trend with no clear test.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Anthony Jeselnik)
- Some burned-out comedy podcasters quit or break down.
“i think you're going to see some people break”
15%No names or timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Anthony Jeselnik)
- Publishers fly authors to LA to appear on the Jeselnik Book Club.
“they're gonna fly out the same way they would fly out to do kimwell's show”
25%Conditional on the pod growing, with no clear threshold.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Getting non-readers to buy books changes the publishing industry.
“it'll really change the industry”
10%Conditional and vague, with no measurable outcome.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Anthony Jeselnik)
- The book club's page limit rises to about 300–350 pages next year.
“next year, I'll probably, I'll go three, 350 because people are getting better at it”
60%Hedged with 'probably', and the range of 300 to 350 is loose.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Anthony Jeselnik)
- Dane Cook's documentary doesn't cover his failed arena tour.
“it's his documentary i'm sure they do not cover it”
50%Checkable by watching the documentary, though 'cover it' is loose.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Anthony Jeselnik)
- The Seinfeld documentary Comedian never streams again.
“it'll never stream again”
45%'Never' has no end date, but streaming availability can be checked.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Anthony Jeselnik)
