An Absolutely Horrific Patriots Loss, the Rams-49ers Travel Bowl, and Hottest Takes
TL;DR
▸
- Live on Netflix after the season opener: Seattle loses Sam Darnold on the first series and still beats the Patriots, with Drake Maye turning it over three times late. AJ Brown leaves in a boot.
- Bill and the Ringer Fantasy Football crew pick apart Maye’s underthrown deep balls, Mike Vrabel’s conservative first half, and Mike Macdonald’s defense.
- A brutal fantasy day (Darnold, AJ Brown, and Brock Bowers’ surprise knee surgery), Mike Tomlin’s NBC debut, and the Rams’ fly-in-fly-out plan for Australia, which everyone thinks hands the 49ers the game.
- Super Bowl picks, the guys’ annual “take purge,” and Bill test-drives hottest takes: more options than “let’s get a beer,” face-scan movie theaters, and no dogs in hotels.
Segments
7▸
00:01
Patriots–Seahawks reactions
Darnold goes down on the first series, AJ Brown leaves, and the Patriots play like a 10-point lead is enough before Maye throws two interceptions on underthrown deep balls and a game-ending pick. Danny Kelly credits Seattle’s defense and Mike Macdonald; Bill fears a lost season.
00:14
Darnold’s hip and the Drew Lock question
Early tests on Darnold’s hip are encouraging. The group debates Drew Lock as a gunslinging backup who costs Seattle points with procedural penalties, and Bill trusts Seattle to be fine for a stretch without Darnold.
00:19
What’s wrong with the Patriots
A better offensive line, but no deep threat after the Kayshon Boutte trade, too few designed runs for Maye, and Vrabel halftime interviews nobody can watch the same way after his offseason.
00:30
Rams–49ers in Australia
The Rams fly in a day before the game, while the 49ers went a week early. Everyone leans 49ers +3.5 short term; Bill thinks the long stay may hurt San Francisco later. Danny Heifetz explains how the Rams tested the trip.
00:36
Fantasy carnage and TV debuts
Darnold, AJ Brown and a surprise Brock Bowers meniscus surgery wreck fantasy teams. Tomlin’s NBC debut feels over-produced, while Chris Collinsworth calls several big plays before they happen.
00:48
Super Bowl picks
Kelly says Seattle (reluctantly), Horlbeck the Bills, and Heifetz the Rams, while Bill doubts Joe Brady in Buffalo and talks up Jesse Minter in Baltimore.
00:53
Take purge and hottest takes
Horlbeck’s take that magicians should be the most famous people alive wins the take purge, plus his worry that Mike McCarthy wins big in Pittsburgh. Bill tries out hottest takes: alternatives to “let’s get a beer,” face-recognition movie entry, and no dogs in hotels (67% of Netflix voters agree).
Predictions on the record
Graded so far: 5–2 (71%)
Transcripts don’t label speakers, so each take has a speaker confidence score for who said it (hover it for the reasoning). Each take also has a gradeability score: 100% means it can be cleanly confirmed or refuted, and 0% means pure opinion. Click a tier to filter.
- The Patriots go 6–11.
Right after the Week 1 loss to Seattle.
“I just feel like we're going 6 -11 now.”
75%Final record settles it, but it's despairing hyperbole right after a loss.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 2nd in the AFC East, the AFC 7 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- Sam Darnold returns from his hip injury this season.
After Darnold's hip injury on the opening series.
“my gut just tells me he's probably going to be back this year”
85%Settles on whether Darnold plays again this season; hedged with "probably".
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Danny Kelly)
- The Patriots' offensive line is about league average this season.
“can they just be a middle of the road offensive line sure”
30%"Middle of the road" needs a proxy such as a pass-block ranking.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Jadarian Price reaches about 15 touches a game.
“Like definitely think he's going to get there.”
65%Touches per game are checkable, but there's no exact threshold or timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Craig Horlbeck)
- Sam Darnold only misses a few games
“maybe he'll only miss a few games”
75%Games missed are checkable; “a few” is loose
Who said it (90%): Kelly, the Seahawks fan, answering Bill’s “DK, how do you feel?”
Result: Darnold was back starting for Seattle by Week 3 (Drake Mayday, 00:37:36).
- The Seahawks start Drew Lock instead of trading for a quarterback.
“I think they'll just roll with Locke.”
85%Transaction records show whether Seattle trades for a quarterback.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Danny Kelly)
- The Seahawks have a solid running game this season.
Arguing the Seahawks will survive Darnold's injury.
“It looks like their running game is going to be fine.”
30%A rushing ranking has to stand in for "fine", and no timeframe is given.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Seahawks win enough with Drew Lock starting while Darnold is out.
“And if they have to have Drew Locke for eight games, I think they'll be fine.”
45%"Fine" needs a proxy, such as a winning record in Lock's starts.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The 49ers beat the Rams in Australia
“It's going to lead to a win tomorrow would be my bet.”
95%The 49ers win or lose in Australia
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Won by 20
- The 49ers struggle after returning from Australia, while the Rams are fine in Week 2.
“I think long -term it's going to be bad”
30%"Bad long-term" has no clear test; Week 2 results are only a loose proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Rams struggle after returning from Australia as much as the 49ers do.
Responding to Bill's claim that the Rams' quick trip to Australia leaves them fine for Week 2.
“I kind of keep wondering if the Rams are going to be just as troubled”
35%Hedged as wondering, and there's no clear measure of "troubled" after the trip.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Danny Heifetz)
- The 49ers are alive as 3.5-point underdogs
“I just think Shanahan gives them an edge.”
100%The final score alone shows whether San Francisco covered the 3.5-point spread.
How it’s graded: The 49ers cover +3.5 against the Rams: they win outright or lose by 3 or fewer points in their next game after 2026-09-09. Source: Official NFL final score (NFL.com or ESPN box score). Settles: Final whistle of the next 49ers-Rams game in 2026.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Won by 20
- The 49ers cover +3.5 against the Rams.
“Just take the points.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Danny Heifetz)
Result: Won by 20
- The 49ers cover +3.5 against the Rams.
“I think the Rams are more or less punting this game”
90%Settles against the line; his side comes from "all of us are on the Niners".
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Craig Horlbeck)
Result: Won by 20
- Brock Bowers and A.J. Brown combine for about three catches in September.
“there's a chance they combined for three catches in September”
55%Catch totals are checkable, but "there's a chance" barely commits.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Danny Heifetz)
- Deshaun Bailey is the top fantasy waiver pickup after Week 1.
“I know Deshaun Bailey is going to be the number one fab fantasy pickup after week one”
50%Top waiver pickup has no official record; add-rate rankings can stand in.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Deshaun Bailey has 7 catches for about 140 yards in his next game.
“because he's going to have seven catches for 140 yards.”
70%Box score settles it, but the player's team and game aren't clear, and he later says 128 yards.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Cowboys blow out the Giants.
“The Giants are going to get their ass kicked.”
85%Graded here as a 10+ point Cowboys win; the opponent is inferred from the Sunday night talk.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Craig Horlbeck)
Result: Lost by 8
- The Seahawks win the Super Bowl.
Restating the Super Bowl pick he made on the Ringer Fantasy Football Show.
“I said the Seahawks”
90%Super Bowl result settles it; he admits he said it with "maybe".
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Danny Kelly)
- The Bills win the Super Bowl
“I picked the Bills”
100%The Super Bowl winner is a clear yes-or-no fact on public record.
How it’s graded: The Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl LXI, the championship game of the 2026 NFL season. Source: NFL.com or ESPN Super Bowl LXI final score. Settles: Super Bowl LXI, February 2027.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- Jesse Minter has a special first season as Ravens head coach.
“I do feel like something special might happen”
25%"Something special" has no clear test.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Ravens make the Super Bowl
“I kind of thought the Ravens are going to make the Super Bowl”
90%Reaching the Super Bowl is a matter of record; “kind of thought” hedges it
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Rams win the Super Bowl
“I had the Rams winning the Super Bowl.”
95%The Super Bowl winner is a matter of record
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- Sam Darnold regresses badly this season.
Restating a take from the Ringer Fantasy take purge.
“I said that Sam Darnold was going to turn back into a pumpkin”
45%"Pumpkin" needs a proxy such as a drop in passer rating or QBR.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Craig Horlbeck)
- Brock Bowers is the most overrated fantasy pick this year.
Restating a take from the Ringer Fantasy take purge.
“Brock Bowers was the most overrated pick in fantasy this year”
45%Overrated needs a proxy, such as finish versus draft ADP.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Craig Horlbeck)
- Mike McCarthy goes 12–5 and wins a playoff game in Pittsburgh
“I think there's a chance that Mike McCarthy goes like 12 -5 wins a playoff game with the Steelers”
100%Win total and playoff results are public record, so the test is a clear yes or no.
How it’s graded: Steelers win 12+ regular-season games in 2026 AND win at least one playoff game in the 2026-27 postseason. Source: NFL.com final standings and playoff results. Settles: End of the Steelers' 2026-27 postseason run.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Steelers make the playoffs.
Restating his preseason pick.
“the Steelers in the playoffs, as you know”
100%Final standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the AFC North (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Giants lose to the Cowboys on Sunday night
“Their Giants are going to lose.”
95%The Giants win or lose against Dallas on Sunday night
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Won by 8
- Mallory doesn't repeat as Ringer Fantasy Football League champion.
Talking about Mallory, last year's Ringer Fantasy Football League winner, after the Brock Bowers injury.
“she lost it this year”
70%The Ringer fantasy league winner will be public, but the call is a quip blaming Brock Bowers.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Patriots miss the playoffs.
“and my Patriots season now feels like it might be over.”
60%Standings settle it, but "feels like it might be" is a heavy hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 2nd in the AFC East, the AFC 7 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- Seattle gets an NBA team again soon.
“You might get an NBA team again soon.”
40%"Might" and "soon" leave no firm test or timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)









