The Bill Simmons PodcastThe Buffalo Curse, a Mega-Mailbag, QB Roulette, and Week 3 Picks
TL;DR
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- A long, unprepped mailbag with House: “Deshaun of the Dead” becomes official, the “crock-pot seat” joins the hot seat, and a listener launches House’s Eat a Fat Dick segment.
- A Bills fan lays out 60 years of Buffalo sports misery, including the Clippers’ origins. Bill’s counter: Josh Allen was a gift and those Jim Kelly teams were great.
- Pelissero’s six-pack: the Giants after Jaxson Dart’s injury, the Chargers’ lack of options, quarterbacks on the trade market, Joey Porter Jr., a revived Deshaun Watson, and Caleb Williams vs. Bryce Young.
- Ringer 107, Week 3: both are 5–5. Both take the Jags against the Pats, Bill backs the Bucs and Texans again, and House goes Ravens in Brazil and Chiefs −10.5.
Segments
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00:02 · with House
Mailbag, part 1
Caleb Williams’ cart ride versus the Paul Pierce wheelchair GIF; Deshaun of the Dead; a “crock-pot seat” for slow-warming coaches (House says Harbaugh will eject before it gets hot); a long stew detour; a Commanders data-center conspiracy; and the listener pitch that makes House’s “eat a fat dick” line a recurring segment.
00:18 · with House
Mailbag, part 2
Can the Bills win it all like the Knicks? House says yes. Josh Allen as 2012 LeBron, a Yankees “Ewing Theory” run without Judge, Vegas vs. Seattle for NBA expansion, Brady’s Fox-and-Raiders setup as Deflategate payback, the Kelces overtaking the Mannings, Myles Garrett’s legacy, Herbert as “Justin’s Second Cousins,” athletes who hosted SNL, and the Colts owner’s notebook.
00:42 · with House
Jayden Daniels, the Dolphins, and the Buffalo curse
House defends Jayden Daniels against the injury-prone label and expects him back this season. Bill reveals his one FanDuel bet: Miami for the worst record at +110, and House thinks 0–17 is worth a bet. Then a Bills fan’s 60-year list of Buffalo heartbreak, and whether Josh Allen can lift it.
00:56 · with Pelissero
Pelissero’s six-pack
- Giants: Jameis Winston starts for now, but Pelissero expects them to add a quarterback within weeks.
- Chargers: there’s no magic fix. Harbaugh is owed a lot through 2028, and Herbert has a no-trade clause and roots in LA.
- Trade-market QBs: Mac Jones (a 2nd or 3rd), JJ McCarthy, and a possible in-season Kirk Cousins deal.
- Joey Porter Jr.: Dallas is the logical buyer, probably for a 2nd-round pick.
- Deshaun Watson: if he keeps playing like last week, Cleveland might keep him; the internal relationship is better than people think.
- Caleb vs. Bryce: Caleb’s hamstring isn’t serious, but he likely misses Monday. Carolina is using tempo to lean on Bryce Young’s processing.
01:30 · with House
Ringer 107, Week 3
Bill reads the Week 3 trends (0–2 teams against the spread, desperate underdogs). House opens with the Ravens in Brazil; both land on the Jags over the Pats, Bill reluctantly. Bill doubles down on the Bucs and Texans and teases Seattle with his first-ever under. House rides the Chiefs against Miami and teases the Bucs and Titans.
Predictions on the record
Graded so far: 10–9 (53%)
Transcripts don’t label speakers, so each take has a speaker confidence score for who said it (hover it for the reasoning). Each take also has a gradeability score: 100% means it can be cleanly confirmed or refuted, and 0% means pure opinion. Click a tier to filter.
- Jim Harbaugh leaves the Chargers on his own before he can be fired.
“Harbaugh, he will bail before the seat gets hot enough.”
35%Leaving before the seat gets hot is subjective and has no timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
- The Bills can win the Super Bowl
“answer is yes.”
90%The Super Bowl winner is a matter of record
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Titans stay bad for about a decade after Vrabel's exit.
On Tennessee driving out Mike Vrabel.
“It'll probably be a full decade of a shit sandwich.”
25%Vague and far off; "shit sandwich" needs a proxy, such as losing records through about 2030.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
- Jayden Daniels comes back this season and plays well
“But I honestly think he will come back this season and play and be effective.”
70%His return is checkable; “effective” needs a stand-in
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- Washington is going to be bad
“They're going to be bad.”
55%“Bad” needs a stand-in, e.g. a losing record
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- Miami finishes with the NFL’s worst record
“The Miami Dolphins have the worst record in football.”
100%League-worst record at season’s end
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Cardinals finish with the worst record in the NFL.
Preseason bet at better than 2-to-1.
“i bet both arizona and miami to have the worst record”
100%Final standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
- The Dolphins finish with the worst record in the NFL.
Preseason bet at better than 2-to-1.
“i have the same bet”
100%Final standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
- The Dolphins go 0–17.
Bill says the Dolphins are 10-to-1 to go 0–17.
“Bet it.”
95%Final record settles it; endorsing the bet rather than placing it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the AFC East (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Giants add a quarterback within weeks
“But I would not be surprised at all if we see them add a quarterback over the next few weeks here.”
75%Checkable within weeks, though “add a quarterback” is broad
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: The Giants traded a 5th-round pick for JJ McCarthy the next week (Hello Cleveland, 01:12:16).
- Jayden Daniels misses the Commanders' upcoming game against the Giants.
“You got Tennessee at home, Arizona at home, and Washington when Jaden Daniels is probably still not back.”
80%Whether Daniels plays in that game is public; hedged with "probably".
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
- Jameis Winston plays better in his next start.
“I think we'll see a better Jameis.”
55%"Better" needs a proxy like passer rating against Monday's game.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
- The Chargers don't trade Justin Herbert.
“I don't see the organization punting on a, what is he, 28 -year -old quarterback in favor of a 65 -year -old head coach.”
65%A trade is public record, but there's no timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
- The Colts don't trade Anthony Richardson this season.
“i don't think the colts even want to trade anthony richardson right now”
80%A trade is a public record, but "right now" leaves the timeframe loose (graded through the deadline).
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
- The Raiders keep Kirk Cousins as their starter over Fernando Mendoza while they're in the playoff race.
On whether the Raiders would hand the job to Fernando Mendoza.
“They're going to ride with Kirk as long as they're alive or until his play takes a dip.”
55%Starts are on record, but "alive" and "play takes a dip" are fuzzy conditions.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
- Kirk Cousins could be traded during the season.
“But I would absolutely not rule out the possibility of Kirk Cousins being traded during the season.”
30%"Not rule out" is barely falsifiable.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
- Dallas trades for Joey Porter Jr.
“he's going to try to trade for Joey Porter Jr.”
75%A trade is checkable; “gonna try” is softer than “will”
Who said it (95%): Pelissero on Joey Porter Jr., citing Jerry Jones’ “old man with money” line
Result: Dallas traded for Porter the following week (Hello Cleveland, 01:05:21).
- Porter costs a 2nd-round pick
“Second would be my best guess.”
80%The trade price is public
Who said it (95%): Pelissero answers Bill’s “So what is it, a second?”
Result: Dallas gave up a 2028 2nd-round pick (Hello Cleveland, 01:06:43).
- Caleb Williams sits on Monday night
“It's unlikely that he plays Monday night.”
80%Whether he started Monday night is a matter of record
Who said it (95%): Pelissero, who broke the Caleb Williams injury news
Result: Case Keenum started Monday night against the Eagles (Hello Cleveland, 00:04:33).
- Caleb Williams returns within the next couple of weeks.
“But I expect him to be back in the next couple of weeks here.”
80%Games played settle it; "couple of weeks" is loose.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
- Case Keenum starts at quarterback for the Bears this week against the Eagles.
“they're going to have Case Keenum this week, probably”
85%The Bears' starter is public record, but the call is hedged with "probably".
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Browns pressure Bryce Young heavily this week.
“And I bet that they just, you know, pressure the crap out of Bryce this week.”
45%Needs a proxy like sacks or pressure rate.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
- The Ravens cover −3.5 against the Cowboys.
Ringer 107, Week 3 pick.
“Ravens offense in a get right kind of moment here.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Won by 3
- The Ravens cover −3.5 against the Cowboys.
He stays off the Brazil game but would side with House.
“But if I did do it, I would have the Ravens.”
90%Final score against the line settles it; it's a lean, not a bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 3
- The Jaguars–Patriots line moves from −2.5 to at least Jaguars −3 by kickoff.
“I think that would be three or three and a half by Sunday.”
85%ESPN closing line settles it; graded as Jaguars −3 or more.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Closed JAX -3
- A.J. Brown doesn't return until around November.
“AJ's gone probably till November.”
75%Return date is public, but "probably" and "till November" are loose.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Jaguars cover −2.5 against the Patriots.
Ringer 107, Week 3 pick.
“I don't know what happened to them in the second half in Denver, but I think that Jags offense is really good.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Won by 29
- The Jaguars cover −2.5 against the Patriots.
Ringer 107, Week 3 pick.
“I am all over the Jags.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Won by 29
- The Patriots make a late-season run after a middling start.
“because I think they can still make a run”
45%"Make a run" needs a proxy, such as a winning record or playoff spot after November.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Jaguars beat the Patriots.
“I'd be really surprised if the Pats won this game.”
95%Straight-up result settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 29
- Todd Bowles is fired after this game if the Bucs lose.
“Todd Bowles will probably get fired after this game if they lose.”
70%Conditional on a loss and hedged with "probably"; firing is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Condition met (Lost by 7); grade the rest by hand
- Baker Mayfield plays himself out of the league.
“He's going to play himself out of the league.”
30%No timeframe; hard to say what counts as playing himself out.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- If the Bucs lose to the Vikings, they finish around 4–13.
“And if the Bucs can't win this game, they're going to go like 4 -13.”
70%Conditional on a loss; "like 4–13" is approximate, final record settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- 6-point teaser: Buccaneers +7.5 against the Vikings and Titans +8.5 against the Giants.
Ringer 107, Week 3, his 6-point teaser.
“So I'm teasing them from one and a half up through the seven.”
100%Settles from the final scores; every leg has to cover its teased line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: 2-leg teaser
- The Buccaneers cover +1.5 against the Vikings.
Ringer 107, Week 3 pick.
“I don't know if that's going to happen here, but I mean, if you can't be Kyler Murray in the fucking Tampa heat and an offense that can't run the ball and.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Lost by 7
- The Giants don't win any game by more than 7 points the rest of the season.
“I'm just going to say I don't have the Giants winning by more than a touchdown against anybody for the rest of this entire season.”
90%Game margins over the rest of the season settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
- The Titans have a losing season under Saleh and Daboll.
Comparing the pairing of Saleh and Daboll to washed-up actors teamed up in a streaming movie.
“They're not successful.”
50%"Not successful" is graded here as a losing record this season.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- 6-point teaser: Seahawks −1.5 against the Commanders and Bengals–Steelers under 48.5.
Ringer 107, Week 3, his 6-point teaser.
“the only thing I knew was that Seahawks Washington was going to be one of my legs.”
100%Settles from the final scores; every leg has to cover its teased line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: 2-leg teaser
- The Seahawks go on a big winning run this season.
“I think they go on a bender this year”
40%"Bender" needs a proxy like a long win streak.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Seahawks beat the Commanders.
Moneyline lean behind his Seahawks −1.5 teaser leg.
“I can't imagine Mariota is going to beat the Seahawks.”
95%Straight-up result settles from the box score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 2
- The Bengals–Steelers game goes under 48.5.
Responding to Bill's Bengals–Steelers under 48.5 teaser leg.
“I bet the under in this game just on the number.”
92%Game total settles from the final score; the exact number he bet isn't stated, so it is graded at the 48.5 on the show.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: 57 total points
- The 49ers cover −8.5 against the Cardinals.
“I might end up playing San Francisco laying the 8.5”
80%Final score against the line settles it; "might" bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Won by 6
- The Seahawks cover −6 against the Commanders.
Bet Sunday night when the line opened at Seattle −6; it is now 7.5.
“I bet it Sunday night as fast as I could with an amount of money that I'm uncomfortable with.”
95%Spread bet settles from the final score; the −6 is the opening number he says he bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Lost by 2
- The Chiefs cover −10.5 against the Dolphins.
Ringer 107, Week 3 pick.
“Kansas City minus 10 and a half”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Won by 14
- The Texans cover −1.5 against the Colts.
Ringer 107, Week 3 pick.
“Houston Texans.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Lost by 2
- The Texans end up being a good team this season.
“I just believe in Houston”
40%"Good" needs a proxy, such as a winning record or a playoff berth.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
