The Bill Simmons PodcastA Clippers Rebrand, an NFL Mini-Mailbag, and Best MLB Story Lines
TL;DR
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- Rob Mahoney and Bill weigh what's left of the Clippers after the penalties and the Kawhi trade to Toronto. Ideas include a full rebrand, a Fox-for-Garland swap with the Spurs and a 'spite tank.' Mahoney calls Milwaukee the league's worst team and Sacramento the worst in the West.
- In the NFL mini-mailbag, Bill puts Seattle atop his Week 1 pyramid and Miami last. He names Chiefs–Broncos his top 'liar-liar' game, says he isn't sold on Mahomes, and admits he's worried the Giants could win the division.
- In baseball, Pete Crow-Armstrong is having a 10-WAR season, Yordan Alvarez is quietly chasing a Triple Crown and the MVP, and the AL West has no team above .500. The Dodgers have become full villains amid questions about their ownership.
- World Series picks: Billy takes Cubs–Yankees, Dabbundo Yankees–Phillies and Bill Rays–Dodgers. Bill fears the Yankees are lined up perfectly.
Segments
4▸
00:00
Intro
Bill plugs his Rambo: First Blood Part II Rewatchables with Kyle Brandt, Stallone's 13th, and previews the episode: Clippers with Rob Mahoney, a short NFL mailbag, and a baseball conversation with Billy Gil and Anthony Dabbundo with under two weeks left in the regular season.
00:01
Clippers preview with Rob Mahoney
With the owner suspended, five firsts gone and no retired numbers to protect, Bill pitches a rebrand ('Hollywood Knights'), and Mahoney notes the Clippers have rarely been relevant anyway. Both are stunned Toronto still gave two unprotected firsts and a swap for Kawhi. Bill rates the Garland–Ingram duo bottom third in the league, and Mahoney expects Ingram to be flipped again. They split on whether rookie Keaton Wagler carries outsized pressure. Bill's roadmap is to use $61M in expirings to absorb bad contracts for picks (Embiid, Paul George) and to call San Antonio about swapping Garland for De'Aaron Fox. They also discuss whether a 'spite tank' makes sense given OKC's swap rights. Mahoney sees Sacramento as the West's worst team and Milwaukee as the league's worst, while Bill likes Memphis's identity. Both are most excited to watch Philly; Mahoney's West pick is Minnesota with LaMelo and Ant, and Bill flags the Celtics if they start slowly. They crown Trey Murphy the NBA's 'nerd king' and close on TV: Widow's Bay, Furious and Slow Horses.
00:36
NFL mailbag
Bill's pyramid has Seattle on top and Atlanta, Tennessee, Cleveland and Miami at the bottom. Emails cover the Browns' stadium never hosting a playoff game, which Bill doubts will change, and the Week 1 'liar-liar' game: Bengals–Bucs, Cards–Chargers and his pick, Chiefs–Broncos, citing missed holds, Kenneth Walker's heavy workload and an underwhelming Mahomes. Other topics: Dontayvion Wicks as his pick for most added-and-dropped fantasy player, Tomlin's strong NBC debut, and New York's karma flip. There, Bill worries the Giants win the division and pegs the Jets at 7–10 or 8–9. He also covers Harbaugh's disciplined Giants, Caleb Wilson needing the nickname 'C-Dub,' Herbert as a lesser Bledsoe, a 'best games only' RedZone channel, where Arch Manning might refuse to go, and a rant about celebrity cameos on sports broadcasts.
01:04
MLB with Billy Gil and Anthony Dabbundo
Dabbundo leads with PCA's historic 10-fWAR season, and Billy calls 2026 the year of ABS challenges and 'spite umpiring.' Other topics: the AL West, where no team is above .500, Seattle's collapse, and Yordan Alvarez's quiet Triple Crown chase, which Dabbundo says has already locked up the MVP. They also recall Jo Adell's three-homer robbery, debate whether Misiorowski has passed Ohtani as must-watch and why knuckleballers vanished, and discuss the villainous Dodgers' ownership mess and Skubal deadline deal. Bill is skeptical of the perennial Padres sleeper case and dreads a Rays–Brewers 'smart guy' World Series. The Red Sox face the Yankees in a best-of-three, and Schwarber is closing in on the single-season strikeout record. Picks: Billy has Cubs–Yankees, Dabbundo Yankees–Phillies and Bill Rays–Dodgers, though Bill fears the Yankees are perfectly lined up. They close on the Marlins, a possible lockout and why MLB shouldn't expand.
Predictions on the record
Graded so far: 0–0 (—)
Transcripts don’t label speakers, so each take has a speaker confidence score for who said it (hover it for the reasoning). Each take also has a gradeability score: 100% means it can be cleanly confirmed or refuted, and 0% means pure opinion. Click a tier to filter.
- The Clippers trade Brandon Ingram for picks
“he gets flipped to yet another team for a couple of picks”
65%A trade is public record, but no timeframe is given.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Rob Mahoney)
- Keaton Wagler becomes a pretty good NBA player
“going to be pretty good.”
45%'Pretty good' needs a stat proxy and has no timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Clippers don't become relevant again in the near term
“I really can't imagine how they dig themselves out of this in any kind of near -term future”
30%'Near-term' has no timeframe and 'dig out' has no clear test.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Rob Mahoney)
- The Kings finish with a worse record than the Clippers
Asked which Western Conference teams are definitely worse than the post-penalty Clippers.
“I would say the Kings definitively.”
60%Graded on final records; 'worse' is a light proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Rob Mahoney)
- Zach LaVine plays really well in his contract year
“he might actually play really well this year because he's playing for one more deal”
35%'Really well' needs a stat proxy, and the call is hedged with 'might'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Kings have a better season than the Clippers
Disagreeing with Mahoney, who said the Kings are definitively worse.
“I think I'd rather be the Kings.”
50%This is a talent preference; final records serve as the proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Julius Randle averages about 23 points and 10 rebounds
“He'll put up 23 and 10.”
85%Season averages settle it; a round number, so allow a little slack.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bucks finish with the worst record in the NBA
“I think Milwaukee will probably be the worst team in the league”
90%Settled by final standings; hedged with 'probably'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Rob Mahoney)
- The Kings finish with the worst record in the West
“Sacramento in the West feels, feels obvious to me”
95%Settled by final Western Conference standings.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Rob Mahoney)
- The Grizzlies are better than a typical bad young team
“Now Memphis, I actually think could be”
35%'Better than the typical bad young team' needs a win-total proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The 76ers are at least solid even if Embiid and LeBron miss time
“The floor is even fairly high”
30%A 'fairly high floor' is vague; the final record is only a rough proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Donte DiVincenzo misses the entire season
“Dante DiVincenzo is probably going to be out for the year”
80%Games played settles it; hedged with 'probably'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Rob Mahoney)
- The Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL
“So I have Miami 32nd.”
55%Read here as a worst-record call; it's framed as a power ranking.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Browns don't host a playoff game this season or next
“Safe to say it won't this year or next year.”
90%Playoff schedules settle it; covers two seasons.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Browns never host a playoff game in their current stadium before it closes after 2028
“And my money would be against it.”
90%Public record by the stadium's 2028 closing.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Deshaun Watson doesn't start for the Browns in Week 3
“I can't imagine they'll start him”
90%The Week 3 starter is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Buccaneers are better and the Bengals worse than their Week 1 game showed
Naming Bengals-Bucs as a Week 1 'liar liar' candidate.
“I think Tampa's better than that game and Cincinnati's worse”
40%'Better' and 'worse' than one game need a proxy such as final records.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Cardinals are a legitimately good team this season
“I think they're a little more for real.”
40%'For real' needs a proxy such as a winning record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Chiefs are worse than their Week 1 win over Denver suggested
“I'm not sure the chiefs are as good as they looked in that game.”
35%Vague; needs a proxy for 'as good as they looked'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Broncos' defense is much better than its Week 1 performance against the Chiefs
“I don't think Denver is going to have a game where they set the record for most missed tackles”
35%This is a vague claim about defensive improvement; missed-tackle stats are only a partial proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Dontayvion Wicks is the season's most added-and-dropped fantasy player
For the 'Taysom Hill Award' (most dropped and re-added fantasy player).
“I am voting for Don Tavian Wicks on the Eagles”
25%No official record of the most added-and-dropped player.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Dontayvion Wicks has another game with about 5 catches for 90 yards this season
Explaining why Wicks will bounce on and off waiver wires.
“I think then he'll have another five for 90.”
70%A game log shows any 5-catch, 90-yard game; there is no timeframe beyond the season.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Giants win the NFC East
“I'm actually worried about them winning the division.”
60%Standings settle it, but it's framed as a worry rather than a firm pick.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 3–1, 1st in the NFC East, the NFC 3 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Jets finish 7–10 or 8–9
“Jets will be seven and 10 or eight and nine.”
95%Final win total settles it; a two-result range.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 1–3, 3rd in the AFC East (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Yankees and Red Sox meet in a best-of-three Wild Card Series
“they have the Red Sox in a best two of three”
90%The postseason bracket settles it; the seeding is not final yet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Browns, Titans and Dolphins all finish among the five worst teams in the NFL
“I think it's a pretty safe bet Cleveland, Tennessee, Miami are three.”
85%Settled by final records; 'worst five' leaves some slack.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Arch Manning doesn't want to go to the team that drafts him
“this seems like the most likely candidate we've had in a while to not want to go to the team that drafts him”
35%Whether he refuses a team can only be judged from draft-day reporting, and the call is hedged.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong wins NL MVP
“He ran away with the MVP.”
95%The award vote settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Anthony Dabbundo)
- The Mariners miss the playoffs
“They're going to miss the playoffs.”
100%Final standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Billy Gil)
Result: Currently 3–1, 2nd in the NFC West, the NFC 6 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- Yordan Alvarez wins AL MVP
“He's probably going to win the MVP.”
90%The award vote settles it; hedged with 'probably'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Billy Gil)
- Yordan Alvarez wins AL MVP
“I think it's over regardless of what happens in the last two weeks.”
100%The award vote settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Anthony Dabbundo)
- Jacob Misiorowski wins NL Cy Young
“now he's gone out and just won the Cy Young”
95%The award vote settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Anthony Dabbundo)
- The Brewers earn the NL's 1 seed
“they're going to get the one seed”
100%Final NL seeding settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: No standings saved yet (run npm run snapshot)
- The knuckleball doesn't make a comeback in MLB
“I would not bet on its return.”
15%There is no timeframe and no clear test for a 'return'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Anthony Dabbundo)
- Skubal or Snell dominates, or Ohtani hits two homers in a game, early in the Dodgers' playoff run
“Scoobal's going to shove, or Snell is going to shove or Otani is going to hit two home runs in a game”
55%'Shove' needs a proxy (e.g., a quality start); the two-homer game is checkable.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Anthony Dabbundo)
- The Kroenkes are successful as Angels owners
“They'll certainly probably be successful with them.”
25%'Successful' has no timeframe or measure, and the call is hedged with 'probably'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Giancarlo Stanton doesn't return for the Yankees' playoff run
“doesn't seem like they're going to get Stanton back”
80%Playoff box scores show whether Stanton plays, but the call is hedged ('doesn't seem like').
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Cam Schlittler wins AL Cy Young
“he's going to clearly cruise to the Cy Young”
100%The award vote settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Yankees start Schlittler, not Cole, in Game 1 of the playoffs
“It's not going to happen.”
85%The Game 1 starter is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The White Sox win the AL Central
“the fact that they are going to win the central”
100%Final standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Billy Gil)
- The Cubs win the NL pennant
World Series matchup picks.
“Cubs and Yankees.”
100%The pennant winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Billy Gil)
- The Dodgers beat the Rays in the World Series
World Series matchup picks.
“I'm going to take them against the Rays”
95%The World Series result settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Anthony Dabbundo)
- The Yankees win the AL pennant
World Series matchup picks.
“I would go Yankees Phillies.”
100%The pennant winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Anthony Dabbundo)
- The Rays eliminate the Yankees in the AL playoffs
“They're going to out, out execute the Yankees in a, in a series and win it.”
85%Settles if they meet; the series is assumed.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Anthony Dabbundo)
- The Brewers don't make the World Series
“they're just not going to get over the hump”
85%Graded as the Brewers not winning the NL pennant.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Billy Gil)
- The Yankees fall short of the World Series title despite a favorable setup
“I just have to bank on the one and only Aaron Boone and some history from the last 17 years screwed up”
65%Implied rather than stated; graded as the Yankees not winning the World Series.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- A lockout wipes out the 2027 MLB season
“But there may not be a season next year.”
60%Hedged with 'may'; whether games are lost to a lockout is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Billy Gil)
