The Bill Simmons PodcastThe Broken Chargers, Mahomes 3.0, Zombie Deshaun, the Masked Backup, First Coach Fired, and Guess the Lines
TL;DR
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- Live on Netflix after the Chiefs beat the Colts in overtime, with Sal on pain meds for a kidney stone. Mahomes looks sharp again after his ACL surgery, and Daniel Jones is now 1–16 in primetime.
- The Chargers are 0–2 after losing at home to the Raiders. Bill blames Herbert, not his supporting cast (“Justin Yeah-But” arrives by email), and both wonder whether Harbaugh lasts the season.
- A lightning delay rescues Deshaun Watson against Baker and the Bucs. Bill doubts the 2–0 Bengals; Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams get hurt; Drake Maye looks shaky in a Pats win over Pittsburgh.
- Guess the Lines, Week 3: Bill beats Sal by guessing several lines exactly, even after missing the Vikings being favored in Tampa. Then Parent Corner: “Tardy Marty” and a UCLA game cut short.
Segments
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00:01
Chiefs–Colts in overtime
Indianapolis has the game until a conservative fourth-down call gives Kansas City the ball back. Mahomes, nine months off ACL surgery, throws like he has his old arm back, and Kelce looks rejuvenated. They debate whether the Colts should have gone for it on 4th-and-8 (Netflix viewers say yes).
00:08
The 2–0 and 0–2 teams
Bill runs through playoff odds: Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Minnesota and the 2–0 Raiders on one side; the Colts, Dolphins, Titans, Falcons, Commanders, Bucs, Chargers and Texans on the other. He’d cross off Vegas from the 2–0 group and worries most about Philly.
00:11
The Chargers fall apart
Five fumbles recovered, then a sixth lost and a late Herbert interception. Bill argues Herbert has been given every resource and is simply playing badly; Sal nominates Mike McDaniel as the first coordinator fired. The next seven games look brutal, and the Harbaugh exit question is now real.
00:21
What Week 1 really meant
With a second week of evidence: the Chargers are bad (which flatters Arizona’s Week 1 win), Pittsburgh is worse than its win over Atlanta suggested, and Philadelphia’s narrow wins point to a team that isn’t as good as its record.
00:28
Browns–Bucs and the lightning delay
Deshaun Watson outplays Baker Mayfield in what was billed as his last chance. Tampa is driving to win when lightning stops the game for two and a half hours; afterward Baker misses open receivers and the Browns hold on. Bill admits the NFC South fooled him.
00:37
Bengals–Texans, Ravens–Saints, Vikings–Bears
Bill thinks the Bengals won a game the Texans gave away and isn’t ready to call them contenders. The Ravens blow another lead, this time to Tyler Shough’s Saints. The Bears manage 3 points against Minnesota after scoring 59, and Caleb Williams leaves with what looks like an Achilles injury but is a hamstring.
00:49
Jayden Daniels, Pats–Steelers, Broncos–Jags, Seahawks–Cardinals
Daniels dislocates his elbow again, and Bill says Washington’s season is over. The Pats beat a toothless Steelers offense, but Drake Maye looks shaky. Denver rallies at home against Jacksonville, Seattle routes Arizona behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Bill ranks his favorite backup quarterbacks.
01:07
Guess the Lines: Week 3
Sixteen games, from Packers–Falcons on Thursday to Eagles–Bears on Monday night. Bill nails several exactly; Sal guesses Packers −9.5 and calls them a “free teaser leg.” Both miss the Vikings being favored in Tampa. See the scorecard below.
01:31
Parent Corner
Sal’s high-school senior keeps getting tardy emails, earning the nickname “Tardy Marty.” Bill takes his son to an undefeated UCLA game at the Rose Bowl, with sideline passes, and gets ditched with 10 minutes left for a friend’s recording session.
01:44
MLB playoff preview
Bill doesn’t trust the Red Sox bats for a Yankees series even without Aaron Judge, and Sal likes the Rays as the kind of team that wins in October.
Guess the Lines — Week 3
Each guess is how many points the favorite lays (negative means the underdog is favored). Green marks the closer guess, and dark green an exact hit. “Real” is the line as read on the show.
Bill wins Week 3, 8–3–5 on games. Guess the Lines →
| Game | Bill | Sal | Real | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Packersover Falcons | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.5 | ATL 35 @ GB 14 ↗ |
 Jaguarsover Patriots | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | NE 6 @ JAX 35 ↗ |
 Billsover Chargers | 7 | 6 | 7 | LAC 16 @ BUF 24 ↗ |
 Lionsover Jets | 6 | 7 | 6.5 | NYJ 24 @ DET 31 ↗ |
 Bengalsover Steelers | 2.5 | 3 | 3.5 | CIN 27 @ PIT 30 ↗ |
 49ersover Cardinals | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | ARI 30 @ SF 36 ↗ |
 Ravensover Cowboys | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | BAL 34 @ DAL 31 ↗ |
 Texansover Colts | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | HOU 17 @ IND 19 ↗ |
 Seahawksover Commanders | 6.5 | 7.5 | 6.5 | SEA 31 @ WSH 33 ↗ |
 Vikingsover Buccaneers | -1.5 | -2.5 | 2.5 | MIN 23 @ TB 16 ↗ |
 Panthersover Browns | 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | CAR 18 @ CLE 21 ↗ |
 Chiefsover Dolphins | 8 | 8.5 | 10.5 | KC 24 @ MIA 10 ↗ |
 Giantsover Titans | 4.5 | 3.5 | 6.5 | TEN 7 @ NYG 12 ↗ |
 Saintsover Raiders | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | LV 35 @ NO 27 ↗ |
 Ramsover Broncos | 1.5 | 2 | 2.5 | LAR 26 @ DEN 30 ↗ |
 Eaglesover Bears | 1.5 | 6.5 | 3.5 | PHI 7 @ CHI 27 ↗ |
Predictions on the record
Graded so far: 5–3 (63%)
Transcripts don’t label speakers, so each take has a speaker confidence score for who said it (hover it for the reasoning). Each take also has a gradeability score: 100% means it can be cleanly confirmed or refuted, and 0% means pure opinion. Click a tier to filter.
- The Chargers are the AFC's No. 7 seed.
Restated preseason pick that he now regrets.
“I had the chargers in that seven seed before the year”
100%The final playoff seeding settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the AFC West (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Raiders miss the playoffs.
Going through the 2–0 teams; the Raiders were +215 to make the playoffs.
“So if we have to say at the end of the year which of those teams aren't going to be in there, we'll cross off Vegas.”
95%Final standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 3–1, 2nd in the AFC West, the AFC 6 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bills and Seahawks make the playoffs.
Going through which 2–0 teams make the playoffs.
“Buffalo, Seattle, sure.”
90%Standings settle it, but this is a brief 'sure' covering two teams.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bengals make the playoffs.
Asked which 2–0 teams won't be in the playoffs (Bengals −460 to make it).
“Cincy, it's starting to look like it's definitely their year plus a great schedule coming.”
75%Graded as a playoff berth; 'definitely their year' is vaguer than that.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 4th in the AFC North (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Eagles are the 2–0 team likeliest to miss the playoffs
“Philly would be the one I would worry”
40%Only a worry; graded as the Eagles missing the playoffs
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The 49ers make the playoffs.
Going through which 2–0 teams make the playoffs.
“San Francisco, unless they have a million injuries”
80%Standings settle it, but it's conditioned on injuries.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 4–0, 1st in the NFC West, the NFC 2 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Chargers are done (miss the playoffs)
“Because I think the Chargers are done.”
100%Settles automatically from the final regular-season standings
How it’s graded: The Los Angeles Chargers are not one of their conference’s 7 playoff teams when the 2026 regular season ends. Source: ESPN final regular-season standings (saved in data/standings.js). Settles: After the 2026 regular season ends (Week 18).
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the AFC West (as of 2026-10-05)
- Mike McDaniel is the first coordinator fired this season.
“especially with McDaniel, who I'm stumping for to be the first coordinator fired”
85%The first coordinator fired is public record; there's no timeframe beyond this season.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Broncos' offensive coordinator is the first coordinator fired this season.
Replying to Sal's pick of McDaniel as the first coordinator fired.
“I thought it was going to be the Denver OC was going to be the other one.”
70%A public record settles it, but he names it as the alternative candidate, not a firm pick.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Chargers have seven losses by Halloween.
“sit back and collect when they have their seventh loss on Halloween.”
85%Checkable from the Chargers' record on Oct. 31.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Jim Harbaugh doesn't finish the season as the Chargers' coach.
“And I do think there's a chance he doesn't make it through the season now.”
55%"There's a chance" is close to unfalsifiable, though a departure is checkable.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Harbaugh is still the Chargers' coach after their next seven games.
Asked whether Harbaugh is still coaching after the Chargers' next seven games.
“I think they'll respect him enough to keep him around.”
75%Checkable from whether Harbaugh is still coaching after the next seven games.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Steelers finish 10–7.
Restated preseason pick, said while admitting he may have overrated Pittsburgh.
“I had them 10 and 7, so now we know with Pittsburgh.”
100%The final record settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the AFC North (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Eagles go about 14–3
“And they're going to be like 14 -3 because that's just how they played ball.”
65%Half sarcastic, but the final record is checkable; graded as 13–4 or better
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Giants win the NFC East.
“the giants really could take that division if they can emulate what they did last week”
65%Division standings settle it, but "could" plus a condition hedges it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 3–1, 1st in the NFC East, the NFC 3 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Buccaneers win the NFC South.
Restated preseason futures on Tampa Bay.
“Not only did I bet them the last two weeks, I had futures on them.”
75%Read as an NFC South futures bet from Sal's remark; the exact future isn't named.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the NFC South (as of 2026-10-05)
- The NFC South winner finishes 7–10.
Restating Sal's preseason call on the NFC South.
“7 -10 is going to win this division.”
90%The division winner's final record settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Dolphins miss the playoffs.
“No, I think Miami is the first cross -off.”
95%Final standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the AFC East (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Texans make the Super Bowl.
Restated preseason pick after the Texans fell to 0–2.
“Picked them to make the Super Bowl.”
95%Settled by who wins the AFC.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- At least one holder fumbles a field goal snap in an NFL game in October.
Bill offered a hypothetical prop: over/under 0.5 holder-fumbled field goal snaps across October.
“Oh, I think I'd go over it.”
55%Settled by whether any holder fumbles a field goal snap in October; there's no easy public tally.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bengals aren't a real contender.
“But I would not put them as a contender at this point.”
35%"Contender" needs a proxy and there's no timeframe.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Saints keep covering as big underdogs.
Said of Saints games where they're getting more than a touchdown.
“I almost think like they're an automatic pick at this point for me.”
40%Needs ATS records as big underdogs to stand in for 'automatic pick'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Saints win eight or fewer games.
“They're not going to go 9 -8 or 10 -7.”
95%Final win total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 1–2, 3rd in the NFC South (as of 2026-10-05)
- Caleb Williams plays again this season.
Said after Caleb Williams's hamstring injury.
“i know he's not done for the year”
85%Checkable by whether he plays again this season.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Jayden Daniels is out for the season.
“Daniels is the only one who seems like he might be gone gone”
70%Checkable if Daniels misses the rest of the season, but hedged with "seems like" and "might".
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Washington misses the playoffs.
“Washington, 0 -2, the season's over.”
90%Final standings settle it; "season's over" is read as missing the playoffs.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 1–3, 4th in the NFC East (as of 2026-10-05)
- Washington contends for the No. 1 pick.
“They might be in the hunt for the number one pick.”
45%"In the hunt" is vague; it needs a proxy such as a top-three draft slot.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Cowboys win 11 or more games.
Restating his preseason Cowboys over 10.5 wins bet.
“So I'm not going to win my Cowboys over 10 and a half wins?”
100%Final win total settles the bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the NFC East (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Cowboys have a disappointing season.
“It's just going to be a dumb team again, I think.”
35%"Dumb team" needs a proxy such as missing the playoffs.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Marcus Mariota starts about eight games for Washington.
“it's another eight game starting stretch for Marcus Mariotta”
70%Mariota's starts count is public; "eight" is approximate.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Patriots score 40 against the Dolphins.
“You'll put up 40 against the Dolphins and who else?”
50%The score of the Pats–Dolphins game settles it, but it's half a joke with no date.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Jaguars miss the playoffs.
Restated after Jacksonville's second-half collapse at Denver.
“the reason i didn't think they were a playoff team”
90%Standings settle it; this is a restated preseason view.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 3–1, 1st in the AFC South, the AFC 2 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- Trey Lance starts a game this season.
During Bill's backup-QB power rankings.
“we might be seeing Trey Lance”
60%Checkable if Lance starts, but 'might' and 'soon enough' are vague.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Packers beat the Falcons (a teaser leg from −6.5).
Packers −6.5 against the Falcons on Thursday.
“Get your free teaser leg here.”
85%Graded as Packers −6.5 teased six points to −0.5; the teaser size is assumed.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Lost by 21
- The Falcons finish as one of the three worst teams in the league.
Reacting to the Packers being only 6.5-point favorites over Atlanta.
“it's a Thursday night game against one of the three worst teams in the league”
45%Graded as a bottom-three final record; it's framed as a current assessment.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bills cover a teased −1 against the Chargers.
Bills −7 against the Chargers.
“It's a 100 % chance I'm putting the Bills in the T's.”
85%Graded as Bills −7 teased six points to −1; the teaser size is assumed.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 8
- The Cardinals cover +8.5 against the 49ers.
“I think the Cardinals can hang with them.”
80%"Hang with them" is graded here as covering +8.5.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 6
- Brandon Aubrey misses an extra point in the Brazil game against the Ravens.
“He's going to be missing extra points and shit.”
75%The box score shows any missed extra points; it's half a joke.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Seahawks beat Washington (a teaser leg from −6.5).
Guess the Lines: Seahawks −6.5 at Washington, teased 6 points.
“a teaser game”
85%Teaser leg grades cleanly, but it's a 'probably' idea rather than a placed bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Chiefs beat the Dolphins (a teaser leg from −10.5).
Chiefs −10.5 at Miami, as a leg of a three-team, ten-point teaser.
“Three -team, ten -pointer with the Chiefs.”
85%Graded as Chiefs −10.5 teased ten points to −0.5.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 14
- Puka Nacua doesn't play Monday night against the Giants.
About Monday night's Rams–Giants game.
“I don't think he is.”
95%The box score shows whether he played.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Puka Nacua isn’t in the box score
- Caleb Williams doesn't play against the Eagles.
Week 3 Monday night preview, Eagles at Bears.
“No Caleb Williams.”
100%The box score shows whether he played.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Caleb Williams isn’t in the box score
- The Eagles beat the Bears to go 3–0.
“Yeah, the Eagles can be 3 -0 with the flimsiest 3 -0 of all time.”
80%The final score settles it; "can be" hedges it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 20
- The Eagles start 7–1
“They'll be like 7 -1.”
85%The Eagles’ record after eight games
Who said it (90%): Bill reading the Eagles’ schedule before his line guess
Result: Philadelphia lost at Chicago in Week 3 and to the Rams in Week 4 (24–20), so 2–2 rules out 7–1.
- Puka Nacua is on injured reserve by the Rams' game against the Eagles.
“I'm sure Pucco will be on the IR by that point.”
85%IR transactions are public record; the timeframe is the Rams' Week 4 game at Philly.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Red Sox play the Yankees in the first round of the playoffs.
“they're playing the Yankees Almost definitely”
90%The playoff bracket settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Red Sox are underdogs in their first-round series against the Yankees.
“you'll still be an underdog.”
85%The series odds settle it, assuming the matchup happens.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Rangers miss the playoffs.
Texas was −170 to make the playoffs.
“I'm thinking they're going to go the other way.”
90%Final standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
