NFL
Las Vegas Raiders
Takes
23
from 6 people
Linked games
5
Games
MIA 13@LV 27·Final·Close LV -3→LV 26@
LAC 14·Final·Close LAC -6.5→LV 35@
NO 27·Final·Close NO -3.5→
KC 30@LV 27·Final·Close KC -3.5→LV@
NE·10/11 - 1:00 PM EDT·Close NE -3.5→Takes about the Raiders
Graded so far: 4–3 (57%)
Transcripts don’t label speakers, so each take has a speaker confidence score for who said it (hover it for the reasoning). Each take also has a gradeability score: 100% means it can be cleanly confirmed or refuted, and 0% means pure opinion. Click a tier to filter.
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026Brock Bowers has a big game against the Patriots.
“he's going to be a nightmare for the Patriots”
80%Graded here as 75+ receiving yards ("big game" for a receiver).
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 5, 2026The Patriots cover −3.5 against the Raiders.
“I feel like this line's too low.”
75%Cover is black and white; "line's too low" is an implied lean.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Chiefs cover −4.5 against the Raiders.
Ringer 107, Week 4 pick.
“Going to go ahead and lay the four and a half with Kansas City.”
100%Settles from the final score against the line.
Who said it (100%): Ringer 107 pick, from the picks segment
Result: Won by 3
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Raiders are a legitimately good team this season.
“I do think this Raiders thing is pretty real, though.”
45%'Pretty real' needs a proxy such as a winning record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Chiefs beat the Raiders in Las Vegas.
“Let's lay the smack down in Vegas.”
85%The final score settles it, but it's framed as the Chiefs' mindset rather than a pick.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 3
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026The Raiders make the playoffs if they play well against the Chiefs.
“I think they could be a playoff”
40%Conditional on a strong showing against the Chiefs, and 'could' is a hedge.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Raiders miss the playoffs.
Citing a brutal nine-game stretch for the 3–0 Raiders.
“I would bet the no playoffs for them”
95%Settles from final standings.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 3–1, 2nd in the AFC West, the AFC 6 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Raiders are a live underdog against the Chiefs.
“Raiders are a live dog in that game.”
50%'Live dog' implies a real shot to win, which is close to unfalsifiable.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Raiders beat the Chiefs (moneyline bet).
Chiefs −4.5 at the Raiders.
“I'm going to just bet the money line.”
100%Moneyline bet; settles from the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Lost by 3
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026The Chiefs beat the Raiders.
Leg of a moneyline parlay.
“and Chiefs.”
95%Settles from the final score; the parlay was tentative.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Won by 3
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 24, 2026The Raiders keep Kirk Cousins as their starter over Fernando Mendoza while they're in the playoff race.
On whether the Raiders would hand the job to Fernando Mendoza.
“They're going to ride with Kirk as long as they're alive or until his play takes a dip.”
55%Starts are on record, but "alive" and "play takes a dip" are fuzzy conditions.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 24, 2026Kirk Cousins could be traded during the season.
“But I would absolutely not rule out the possibility of Kirk Cousins being traded during the season.”
30%"Not rule out" is barely falsifiable.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026The Raiders miss the playoffs.
Going through the 2–0 teams; the Raiders were +215 to make the playoffs.
“So if we have to say at the end of the year which of those teams aren't going to be in there, we'll cross off Vegas.”
95%Final standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 3–1, 2nd in the AFC West, the AFC 6 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026Ladd McConkey misses the Raiders game.
“I expect him to be out for the game”
100%The box score shows whether he played.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
Result: Ladd McConkey is in the box score
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026Brock Bowers doesn't play against the Chargers.
“Seems unlikely that he plays this week.”
95%The box score settles it; hedged as "seems unlikely."
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tom Pelissero)
Result: Brock Bowers isn’t in the box score
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026The Chargers–Raiders line drops below Chargers −6.5 by kickoff.
“But I think it's going to keep dropping”
90%The closing line is checkable against the stated Chargers −6.5.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 17, 2026The Raiders cover +6.5 against the Chargers.
Sunday-pick lean; he wants the line at 7.
“I might be leaning toward the Raiders.”
55%Settles on the spread, but hedged and conditional on the line reaching 7.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 12
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026Brock Bowers plays in Week 2.
“they shaved his meniscus but he might be ready for week two”
75%The box score settles it, but 'might' hedges.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Brock Bowers isn’t in the box score; confirm by hand
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 13, 2026Malik Willis throws an interception in most games this season.
“that's a good bet every week is a Willis interception”
55%Weekly game logs settle it, but "every week" has no clear threshold.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 9, 2026Brock Bowers and A.J. Brown combine for about three catches in September.
“there's a chance they combined for three catches in September”
55%Catch totals are checkable, but "there's a chance" barely commits.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Danny Heifetz)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 9, 2026Brock Bowers is the most overrated fantasy pick this year.
Restating a take from the Ringer Fantasy take purge.
“Brock Bowers was the most overrated pick in fantasy this year”
45%Overrated needs a proxy, such as finish versus draft ADP.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Craig Horlbeck)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026The Raiders finish 4th in the AFC West, the Jets 3rd in the AFC East and the Cardinals 4th in the NFC West.
Futures draft exact-finish parlay, +229.
“this is an exact finish parlay Raiders 4th why not Jets 3rd Cardinals 4th plus 229”
100%The final division standings settle all three legs.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 6, 2026Brock Bowers gets 1,000+ receiving yards.
Futures draft, +135.
“Brock Bowers, 1,000 yards, plus 135.”
100%Season receiving yards settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
