The Bill Simmons PodcastGuess the Lines Week 1, Plus Favorite NFL Futures
TL;DR
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- Year 20 of Guess the Lines, now live on Netflix. Bill and Sal trade Week 1 spreads and tie the week, 10–10 counting ties, with Sal winning the Monday-night game to pull even.
- Talking points: the Rams flying into Australia a day before playing the 49ers, the Texans–Bills overreaction game, and FanDuel bringing back −110 teasers for listeners.
- Then the annual futures draft: about 60 season-long bets between them. Sal leads with the Jets to finish 3rd in the AFC East; Bill leads with the Falcons and Dolphins both finishing 4th.
- Super Bowl picks: Sal takes the Rams over the Bills, and Bill takes Seattle repeating against Houston. Parent Corner features seagulls, a borrowed bathing suit, and Bill’s dad’s mystery pulled groin.
Segments
7▸
00:01
Year 20 and the mailbag
Bill and Sal recall how Guess the Lines started 20 years ago at Jimmy Kimmel Live with a USA Today. Quick mailbag: Jerry Jones has gone quiet, the Clippers story, and a Jackson Dart nickname.
00:12
Guess the Lines: Week 1, Wednesday to Sunday
Seattle–New England is a draw because Bill saw the line early. The Rams flying into Australia 24 hours before playing the 49ers gets torn apart, and Texans–Bills is flagged as the week’s overreaction game. FanDuel agrees to −110 teasers for Ringer listeners, and Ringer 107 adds a fifth pick on Sundays.
00:33
Guess the Lines: the rest of Sunday and Monday
Bill is reading lines through nine-month-old contact lenses. The Lions look like a teaser leg, the Packers–Vikings line surprises them both, and Bill thinks the Eagles are a bargain at −5.5. The week ends tied.
00:56
Futures draft, part 1
Alternating one-unit bets with a mix of favorites and long shots: Jets 3rd, Falcons and Dolphins 4th, a Chargers one-and-done, Texans and Seahawks to make the playoffs, Tampa to win the NFC South, Dak for MVP, and a run of rookie, yardage and division-ranking props.
01:27
Futures draft, part 2
More playoff and seeding plays (Pats 6 seed, Baltimore or Houston as the 1 seed), award bets (Garrett, Minter, Joseph, Downs), and win totals for the teams they’re shorting, Washington and Atlanta. Bill keeps making NFC South bets; Sal keeps objecting.
01:55
Super Bowl picks
Sal: Rams over Bills. Bill: Seattle over Houston, betting on a defending champion nobody seems to believe in.
02:00
Parent Corner
Seagulls wipe out Sal’s beach lunch, his friend Brad loses a borrowed bathing suit in the surf, and Bill’s dad bails on a 25-minute walk home from Fenway with a mystery pulled groin.
Guess the Lines — Week 1
Each guess is how many points the favorite lays (negative means the underdog is favored). Green marks the closer guess, and dark green an exact hit. “Real” is the line as read on the show.
Week 1 is a tie on game wins. Guess the Lines →
| Game | Bill | Sal | Real | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Seahawksover Patriots | 4 | 4 | 3.5 | NE 10 @ SEA 13 ↗ |
 Ramsover 49ers | 4 | 3 | 3.5 | SF 27 @ LAR 7 ↗ |
 Billsover Texans | -1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | BUF 36 @ HOU 31 ↗ |
 Ravensover Colts | 2.5 | 4 | 3.5 | BAL 41 @ IND 23 ↗ |
 Bengalsover Buccaneers | 3 | 3 | 3.5 | TB 27 @ CIN 33 ↗ |
 Lionsover Saints | 6.5 | 7 | 6.5 | NO 30 @ DET 31 ↗ |
 Bearsover Panthers | 2.5 | — | 2.5 | CHI 59 @ CAR 37 ↗ |
 Jaguarsover Browns | 7.5 | 7 | 7.5 | CLE 10 @ JAX 34 ↗ |
 Vikingsover Packers | -2 | -1.5 | 1.5 | GB 22 @ MIN 39 ↗ |
 Eaglesover Commanders | 6 | 4.5 | 5.5 | WSH 22 @ PHI 24 ↗ |
 Steelersover Falcons | 3.5 | 3 | 3.5 | ATL 13 @ PIT 20 ↗ |
 Titansover Jets | -1.5 | 2 | 2.5 | NYJ 23 @ TEN 10 ↗ |
 Raidersover Dolphins | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | MIA 13 @ LV 27 ↗ |
 Chargersover Cardinals | 8 | 8.5 | 9.5 | ARI 26 @ LAC 14 ↗ |
 Cowboysover Giants | 2.5 | 3 | 2.5 | DAL 20 @ NYG 28 ↗ |
 Chiefsover Broncos | 1.5 | 2 | 2.5 | DEN 10 @ KC 31 ↗ |
Predictions on the record
Graded so far: 6–6 (50%)
Transcripts don’t label speakers, so each take has a speaker confidence score for who said it (hover it for the reasoning). Each take also has a gradeability score: 100% means it can be cleanly confirmed or refuted, and 0% means pure opinion. Click a tier to filter.
- The Patriots cover +3.5 at Seattle.
Week 1 kickoff game in Seattle, Seahawks −3.5.
“I think the Pats are a live dog in this one.”
75%'Live dog' is graded here as covering +3.5; it's a lean, not a stated bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 3
- The 49ers cover +3.5 against the Rams.
Asked to choose between Pats +3.5 and Niners +3.5 for the Australia game, he says San Francisco.
“This is the healthiest the 49ers will be all year.”
80%The final score settles it, but this is a lean rather than a firm pick.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Won by 20
- The Bills cover −1.5 at Houston.
Sal guessed Bills −1.5 at Houston and it matched the line.
“I think it's a little bit of a break for Buffalo getting this defense before they get in a rhythm.”
70%The score settles it, but he argues for Buffalo rather than betting it outright.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Won by 5
- The Ravens beat the Colts.
“My guess is I would probably take the Ravens money line and put that with something because the hook scares me.”
90%Moneyline lean that settles on the result; slightly hedged with 'probably'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 18
- The Buccaneers win 9 or more games.
Restating his over-unders pick on Tampa over 8.5 wins.
“I'm in on Tampa”
100%The standings settle a 9-win threshold.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the NFC South (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Buccaneers cover +3.5 at Cincinnati.
Bengals −3.5 at home.
“I just like this spot for them.”
85%He calls Tampa a live dog, so it settles on the spread.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 6
- The Lions blow out the Saints.
Lions −6.5 at home; he calls them a flashing neon sign for a teaser.
“This feels blowout -y to me.”
80%Graded here as a 10+ point Lions win; hedged with 'I don't know'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 1
- The Bears cover −2.5 at Carolina.
“I'll tell you, I'm going to go with the Bears here.”
90%A clear side that settles from the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Won by 22
- The Eagles go 11–6 again
“they're going to go 11 -6 like they always do”
85%The Eagles’ final record against 11–6
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Eagles cover −5.5 against Washington
“So many times you're getting two free points.”
85%Graded as the Eagles covering −5.5
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Won by 2
- The Steelers are a sleeper and win 10 or 11 games.
“steelers could be a little bit sleepery in the afc is like a 10 and an 11 -win team”
65%Hedged with "could"; graded as 10+ wins.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the AFC North (as of 2026-10-05)
- Aaron Rodgers looks good against the Falcons
“to look good.”
45%“Look good” needs a stand-in, e.g. his yards per attempt
Who said it (85%): Sal reading his own Steelers–Falcons guess
Result: Rodgers averaged 5.5 yards per attempt in a punchless Week 1 win (The Smashmouth Giants, 00:57:56).
- The Jets cover +2.5 at Tennessee.
The line was Titans −2.5; Bill had guessed Jets −1.5.
“I'm going to bet on myself on this one.”
95%A stated bet that settles from the final score.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Won by 13
- The Broncos cover +2.5 at Kansas City.
Monday night, Chiefs −2.5 at home.
“I just don't see how the Chiefs are favored like this.”
65%An implied Broncos lean, graded as Denver covering +2.5.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Lost by 21
- The Jets finish third in the AFC East.
Futures draft, even odds; he calls it his favorite bet.
“the new york jets to come in third place at even odds”
100%Final AFC East standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Patriots and Bills both win 10 or more games.
Futures draft, explaining his Jets-third pick.
“i think the pats and bills are 10 plus”
95%The standings settle whether both reach 10 wins.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Dolphins win 4 or fewer games.
Futures draft, explaining his Jets-third pick.
“i think the dolphins are four minus”
100%The standings settle the win total.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the AFC East (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Jets win 6 games.
“I have the Jets at six wins.”
90%An exact win projection, checkable in the standings.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 1–3, 3rd in the AFC East (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Falcons and Dolphins both finish last in their divisions.
Futures draft parlay, +343.
“I honestly can't figure out how either of these teams don't finish fourth.”
100%Final division standings settle both legs.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Chargers lose in the first round of the playoffs.
Futures draft, +172.
“Chargers get eliminated in the first round of the playoffs plus 172.”
100%The playoff bracket settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Chargers win the AFC West.
Part of his case that the Chargers win the division as the 3 seed, then lose at home.
“They'll enter as a three seed after winning the division and they're going to lose at home.”
100%Final division standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the AFC West (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Chiefs are the AFC's 6 seed and beat the Chargers in the first round.
“I have losing to the six seeded Chiefs in round one.”
90%The 6 seed is checkable; the matchup adds a condition.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 4–0, 1st in the AFC West, the AFC 1 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Texans and Seahawks both make the playoffs.
Futures draft parlay, +112.
“I have Houston and Seattle both to make the playoffs.”
100%Final playoff standings settle both legs.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Texans and Seahawks have two of the three best defenses in the league.
“I just think Houston's defense and Seattle's defense, those are going to be two of the three best defenses in the league.”
55%Needs a defensive metric (EPA or points allowed) as a proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The NFC West has more wins than the NFC South, and the AFC West has more than the AFC North.
Futures draft combination bet, +165.
“NFC West to have more wins than the NFC South.”
100%Division win totals settle both legs.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Tampa wins the NFC South (+175)
“Now, Tampa, to win the NFC South, plus 175.”
100%Settles automatically from the final regular-season standings
How it’s graded: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finish first in their division in the final 2026 regular-season standings (tiebreakers included). Source: ESPN final regular-season standings (saved in data/standings.js). Settles: After the 2026 regular season ends (Week 18).
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the NFC South (as of 2026-10-05)
- Rams win the NFC West, Chargers make the playoffs, Cardinals lose their first 5 (+850)
“Chargers make the playoffs and Cardinals lose their first five.”
95%Settles over the season; the Cardinals leg needed an 0–5 start
Who said it (80%): Sal’s turn in the alternating futures draft
Result: Arizona beat the Chargers in Week 1 (The Broken Chargers, 00:22:07), so the Cardinals couldn’t start 0–5.
- Dak Prescott wins MVP.
Futures draft, 18-1.
“I have Dak Prescott to win the MVP.”
100%The MVP award winner settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Zac Taylor wins Coach of the Year.
Futures draft, +2700; he says Taylor is either first coach fired or coach of the year.
“But Zach Taylor, coach of the year at plus 2,700.”
100%The award winner settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Zac Taylor is the first head coach fired.
Asked who the first coach fired will be if not Taylor.
“It's going to be Zach Taylor.”
95%Public record shows who is fired first; he hedged it against his own Coach of the Year bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Seahawks rookie running back Price runs for more than 750.5 yards.
Futures draft, over 750.5 rushing yards.
“750.5 yards rushing this is over under on fan duel”
100%The season rushing total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Stribling (49ers) wins Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Futures draft, +850.
“Stribling for the 49ers plus 850.”
100%The award winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Matthew Golden and Jalen Coker each get 600+ receiving yards and Rashid Shaheed gets 500+.
Futures draft parlay, +561.
“Matthew Golden on the Packers to get 600 -plus receiving yards.”
100%Season receiving totals settle every leg.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Puka Nacua finishes under 107.5 receptions.
Futures draft.
“Puka under 107 and a half receptions.”
100%The season reception total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Washington and Atlanta both go under 8.5 wins (+112)
“both under eight and”
100%Both teams’ final win totals
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- Washington and the Falcons both win 8 or fewer games.
Futures draft parlay, +112.
“both under eight and a half wins.”
100%The standings settle both win totals.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Packers are the NFC's 2 seed.
Futures draft, +1000.
“Green Bay to be the two seed at plus 1,000.”
100%Final playoff seeding settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 2–2, 4th in the NFC North (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Packers win the NFC North.
“I have them to win a division at plus 280”
90%The division standings settle it; it was stated as his projection.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 2–2, 4th in the NFC North (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Lions win the NFC North.
“I have the Lions.”
95%The division standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the NFC North (as of 2026-10-05)
- Baker Mayfield throws for 4,000+ yards.
Futures draft, +340.
“Baker Mayfield, 4,000 -plus passing yards plus 340.”
100%Season passing yards settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Trevor Lawrence throws for 4,000+ yards.
Futures draft, +160.
“I'm going to go T -Law 4K plus 160.”
100%Season passing yards settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Caleb Williams throws for 4,000+ yards.
Futures draft, +210.
“Caleb Williams plus 210.”
100%Season passing yards settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Christian Watson catches 10+ touchdowns (+340)
“Christian Watson, 10 -plus receiving touchdowns is plus 340.”
100%Christian Watson’s season receiving touchdowns
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- David Montgomery runs for 1,000+ yards for the Texans.
Futures draft, +220.
“1,000 -yard rushing season.”
100%The season rushing total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Vance Joseph wins Assistant Coach of the Year.
Futures draft, Assistant Coach of the Year at +1100.
“And so I think he wins it this year.”
100%The award winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Malik Willis runs for 1,000+ yards.
Futures draft, +850.
“Thousand yards rushing this year, plus 850.”
100%The season rushing total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Malik Willis leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards.
Futures draft, +500.
“Most quarterback rushing yards is plus 500.”
100%League rushing leaders settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Seattle and New England over 8.5 wins, Rams under 13.5 (+145)
“Seattle and New England together over eight and a half wins.”
100%Three teams’ final win totals
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- AJ Brown catches 10+ touchdowns (+240)
“All right, I'm going to do A.J. Brown 10 -plus receiving touchdowns.”
100%AJ Brown’s season receiving touchdowns
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- Myles Garrett wins Defensive Player of the Year (4–1)
“Miles Garrett, Defensive Player of the Year, 4 -1.”
95%Defensive Player of the Year voting
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Colts, Browns, Giants, Jets and Cardinals all miss the playoffs (+156)
“I'm taking the Colts… I'm taking the Cardinals”
95%Playoff field; one berth among the five loses it
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Vikings finish 4th in the NFC North (+175)
“okay Vikings fourth in the NFC North plus 175 is off the board.”
100%Final division standings give a clear yes or no; no automatic rule covers 4th place.
How it’s graded: The Vikings finish 4th (last) in the final 2026 NFC North regular-season standings, with NFL tiebreakers applied. Source: NFL.com official final 2026 division standings. Settles: End of the 2026 NFL regular season.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Chargers win more games than the Vikings (−130)
“Chargers more wins than the Vikings.”
100%Final win totals
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Chargers win the AFC West
Explaining his Chargers-over-Vikings future (−130)
“I have the Bolts winning the AFC West”
100%Settles automatically from the final regular-season standings
How it’s graded: The Los Angeles Chargers finish first in their division in the final 2026 regular-season standings (tiebreakers included). Source: ESPN final regular-season standings (saved in data/standings.js). Settles: After the 2026 regular season ends (Week 18).
Who said it (100%): Confirmed by an editor: Sal, continuing his own Chargers-over-Vikings future
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the AFC West (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Cowboys win 11 or more games.
Futures draft, +500.
“I don't like your attitude so I'm going to take Cowboys over 10 and a half”
100%The final win total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the NFC East (as of 2026-10-05)
- Bijan Robinson leads the NFL in rushing yards.
Futures draft, +750.
“Most rushing yards, plus 750.”
100%League rushing leaders settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Falcons win 5 or fewer games.
Futures draft, +190.
“I'm going to follow that up with Falcons under five and a half wins plus 190.”
100%The final win total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 1–2, 2nd in the NFC South (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Falcons finish with a top-5 draft pick.
“I think they will have a top 5 pick next year”
95%The draft order settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Raiders finish 4th in the AFC West, the Jets 3rd in the AFC East and the Cardinals 4th in the NFC West.
Futures draft exact-finish parlay, +229.
“this is an exact finish parlay Raiders 4th why not Jets 3rd Cardinals 4th plus 229”
100%The final division standings settle all three legs.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Seahawks win the NFC West.
Futures draft, +210.
“I'm going to put Seahawks, NFC West, plus 210 on the board.”
100%Final division standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 3–1, 2nd in the NFC West, the NFC 6 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Colts win 6 or fewer games.
Futures draft, +210.
“the Colts under 6.5 plus 210”
100%The final win total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 2–2, 2nd in the AFC South (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Texans win the AFC South.
Futures draft, +120.
“Quickly, Houston to win the AFC South.”
100%Final division standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the AFC South (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Texans win more games than the Eagles (+120)
“and that is the Texans to have more wins than the Eagles.”
100%Final win totals
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Texans and Seahawks each win 10+ games and the Buccaneers win 9+.
Futures draft parlay with Tampa over 8.5.
“Houston and Seattle over nine and a half wins each.”
100%The standings settle all three win totals.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Ravens rookie Jacoby Lane wins Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Futures draft, Offensive Rookie of the Year at +2200.
“Jacoby Lane on the AFC side.”
100%The award winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Ravens are the AFC's 1 seed.
Futures draft, +500, with Houston as the 1 seed (+750) as his hedge.
“Baltimore, one seed plus 500.”
100%Final playoff seeding settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 3–1, 2nd in the AFC North, the AFC 5 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- Baltimore (+500) or Houston (+750) is the AFC’s No. 1 seed
“Houston, one seed plus 750.”
100%Official seeding gives a clear yes or no, but no single-team rule covers either team.
How it’s graded: Baltimore or Houston finishes as the AFC's No. 1 playoff seed in the final 2026 NFL regular-season standings. Source: NFL.com final 2026 regular-season standings and playoff seeding. Settles: End of the 2026 NFL regular season.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- Parker Washington catches 5+ touchdowns.
Futures draft, −122.
“Let me do Parker Washington over four and a half touchdown receptions, minus 122.”
100%The season receiving TD total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Parker Washington gets 1,000+ receiving yards.
Futures draft, +165.
“I have him 1,000 yards”
100%Season receiving yards settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Jalen Hurts runs for 10+ touchdowns.
Futures draft, +145.
“Hurts 10 -plus rushing touchdowns, plus 145.”
100%The season rushing TD total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Jesse Minter wins Coach of the Year.
Futures draft, +850 on Jesse Minter for Coach of the Year.
“This year, it's going to be him.”
100%The award winner settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Dolphins finish with the NFL's worst record.
Futures draft, +220.
“Dolphins' worst record.”
100%Final league standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Washington wins 5 or fewer games.
Futures draft, +220.
“I'm going to do Washington under five and a half wins plus 220.”
100%The final win total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 1–3, 4th in the NFC East (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Patriots are the AFC's 6 seed.
Futures draft, Patriots 6 seed at +1000.
“Pat succeed is plus a thousand”
100%The final seeding settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 2–2, 2nd in the AFC East, the AFC 7 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Patriots make the playoffs.
“I like them to make the playoffs.”
95%The playoff field settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 2–2, 2nd in the AFC East, the AFC 7 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Patriots win the AFC East.
Futures draft, +140.
“Pats to win the AFC East plus 140.”
100%Final division standings settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 2–2, 2nd in the AFC East, the AFC 7 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- Justin Herbert wins MVP.
Futures draft, 11-1.
“that 11 -1 for Justin Herbert for MVP is a fun bet.”
100%The MVP winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Justin Herbert throws for 4,500+ yards.
Futures draft, 12-1.
“Justin Herbert, 4,500 yards.”
100%The season passing yardage settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Jayden Daniels wins Comeback Player of the Year.
Futures draft, Comeback Player of the Year at +750.
“I have Jaden Daniels at plus 750”
100%The award winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Patrick Mahomes wins Comeback Player of the Year.
“I find it hard to believe Mahomes isn't going to win this unless he goes like 7 -10.”
90%The award is public record, though he hedges on the Chiefs' record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Brock Bowers gets 1,000+ receiving yards.
Futures draft, +135.
“Brock Bowers, 1,000 yards, plus 135.”
100%Season receiving yards settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bills win more games than the Chiefs.
Futures draft, −120.
“Bills more wins than the Chiefs, minus 120”
100%The two win totals settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Chiefs aren't a good team this year.
“I don't think they're going to be good”
50%"Good" needs a proxy such as a winning record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Bears win 10 or more games.
Futures draft, +120.
“one of them is bears over nine and a half wins plus 120.”
100%The final win total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
Result: Currently 3–1, 2nd in the NFC North, the NFC 5 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- Caleb Downs wins Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Futures draft, +700.
“Caleb Downs Defensive Rookie of the Year plus 700.”
100%The award winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Emeka Egbuka gets 1,000+ receiving yards.
Futures draft, +150.
“Did we do a Bucca 1,000 yards at plus 150 yet”
100%Season receiving yards settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Matthew Stafford leads the NFL in passing yards.
Futures draft, +500.
“Most passing yards, plus 500”
100%League passing leaders settle it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- David Montgomery scores 8+ touchdowns.
Futures draft, −102.
“David Montgomery, eight touchdowns.”
95%His touchdown total settles it, though rushing-only vs. all TDs was unclear.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- Daniel Jones throws 18 or fewer touchdown passes.
Futures draft, under 18.5 TD passes.
“Under 18 and a half touchdowns.”
100%The season TD pass total settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Seahawks rookie Price wins Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Futures draft, Price at +650.
“Offensive Rookie of the Year, plus 650.”
100%The award winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)
- The Rams beat the Bills in the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl exact-matchup pick at +3050.
“is the Rams over Bills at plus 3,050.”
100%The Super Bowl result settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Seahawks beat the Texans in the Super Bowl.
Exact-matchup pick at +5340; Seattle repeats.
“My Super Bowl pick is Seattle over Houston.”
100%The Super Bowl result settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Bill Simmons)