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Eagles-Bears Recap, Early Week 4 Leans, and MLB Wild-Card Round | Ringer Wise Guys

Sep 29, 20261h 1mNFLMLBWeek 4MLB PlayoffsWild CardEaglesBearsEarly Leans
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TL;DR

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  • The Bears beat the Eagles 27–7 behind a sharp Case Keenum. The hosts say Philly's defense has collapsed: no turnovers, almost no pressure, the worst on third down. The offense dies in second halves. Raheem thinks this has to be Sirianni's last year.
  • Early Week 4 leans: Dabbundo likes the Cardinals over the Giants and Rams −2.5 over the Eagles. Raheem likes Seahawks–Chargers under 43.5 and Bears −3 over the Jets. Sal likes Commanders +3.5 over the Colts at a neutral site.
  • MLB wild-card round: Aaron Judge is off the Yankees' roster. Sal takes the Red Sox at +122 and Dabbundo the Cubs at +106. Dabbundo bets series unders, since unders are 33–14–3 in these rounds since 2020.
  • Plays of the day: Raheem takes Braves −1.5 (+120) in Game 1, Dabbundo Luzardo over 8.5 outs, and Sal over 7.5 in Padres–Cubs. Raheem adds that the loser of Bucs–Packers might produce the first coach fired.

Segments

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  1. 00:00

    Intro and headline: Judge off the Yankees' roster

    Sal checks in from a Brooklyn hotel room. Dabbundo's D'Andre Swift longest-rush prop cashed on Swift's last carry before the kneel-down. That leads to banter about athletes telling friends to bet their overs. In the headline, Aaron Judge is left off the Yankees' wild-card roster and the series price is now Yankees −146. Dabbundo cites Sean Zerillo's estimate that Judge is worth about 8% on the series line. He adds that Boston has actually had the better offense since the All-Star break.

  2. 00:03

    Eagles–Bears recap

    Chicago won 27–7. Keenum threw 24 of 34 for 247 yards and two touchdowns, and Ben Johnson gave a fiery postgame speech. Raheem had faded Keenum, and now calls the Eagles defense alarming: no turnovers, near the bottom in pressure, and the worst on third down. Dabbundo blames new safeties and linebackers who can't cover, which breaks Fangio's back-to-front scheme. On offense, Philly went 2-for-9 on third down and punted on fourth-and-short while down two scores. Their third-quarter success rate is 17%, and both NFC East rivals with backup quarterbacks rank ahead of them. Raheem says this has to be Sirianni's last year in Philadelphia. He also argues a healthy Giants team would be the best in the division. On the odds: Eagles playoffs −235 and division −135; the Bears' win total is 9.5. Dabbundo has no NFC North team in his top eight power ratings.

  3. 00:14

    Early Week 4 leans

    Last week's early Bengals under lost but beat the closing line, which Raheem says is what matters long term. Dabbundo expects a high-scoring Cowboys–Texans game with Nico Collins back. He backs Arizona against a Giants secondary without Brian Burns, and Raheem agrees, adding that the Cardinals close as favorites and the 43.5 total goes up. Raheem likes Seahawks–Chargers under 43.5 and makes it closer to 39. Dabbundo agrees but warns about both teams' turnovers. Dabbundo takes Rams −2.5 over the Eagles, expects Nacua to play and the line to close at 3. Raheem makes a preemptive move on Bears −3 against the Jets. Tangents include the Jets' interception drought, the Bucs' non-covering streak, and backup quarterbacks (not Week 1 starters) going 6–0 against the spread. Sal grabs Commanders +3.5 over the Colts on a neutral field; Raheem's own numbers make it a pick'em. On a Twitch question about 49ers −2.5 at Denver, Sal says he's done betting against the Broncos. Dabbundo notes the Niners haven't faced a real pass defense yet. In the Ringer 107 standings, Dabbundo is first after a 4–1 week and Raheem is last after a sick-day teaser mix-up.

  4. 00:35

    MLB wild-card round

    World Series odds: Dodgers +220, Brewers +500, Rays +750 and Phillies +1800. Dabbundo makes the case for the Phillies against the Braves: the teams have been even since July and Philly has the better starters in Games 2 and 3. Raheem recalls his Phillies playoff hedge. Dabbundo takes the Cubs +106 over the Padres, and Raheem passes on another dinner bet with him. Sal takes the Red Sox +122 with Judge out, citing the Yankees' weak finish and Boston's pitching matchups. Dabbundo calls this an under-friendly round: unders are 33–14–3 in wild-card series since 2020. He has bet unders in the Cubs, Phillies and Yankees series. Garrett Crochet is active for Boston. In a futures review, Sal cashed Cal Raleigh under 39.5 homers and Caminero over 38.5, and split a Schwarber home-run title. His worst bets were the Orioles and Mariners making the playoffs. Dabbundo went 4–3 on win totals but lost big fading the Braves. He holds Guardians −130 to make the ALCS and calls Rays–Guardians the most likely ALCS.

  5. 00:50

    Plays of the day and wrap

    Raheem lays the run line with the Braves at +120 in Game 1, backing Chris Sale against Luzardo and a cold Phillies lineup. Dabbundo takes Luzardo over 8.5 outs, expecting him to pitch longer than an opener. Sal goes against the under trend with over 7.5 in Padres–Cubs, citing both lineups' form and high-scoring head-to-head games. Dabbundo concedes that if any series goes over, it's this one. In the wrap, Raheem says whoever loses Bucs–Packers could produce the first coach fired, and notes the Bucs have failed to cover 12 straight. The crew plans a live show in LA next week, and Raheem explains why he won't wear a fitted cap there.

Speakers

Predictions on the record

Graded so far: 8–4 (67%)

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