Ringer Wise GuysWeek 4 Recap and a Falcons-Saints Preview | Ringer Wise Guys
TL;DR
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- For Monday night's Falcons–Saints game, Raheem and Dabbundo side with Atlanta because its run game faces a Saints defense that can't stop the run. Sal and House both take the over 47.5, and Tate goes contrarian with the Saints and a Chris Olave touchdown.
- The Patriots' win in Buffalo burned both Raheem and Dabbundo, who laid the Bills. Raheem now questions Buffalo as a Super Bowl contender, and House asks whether New England +210 to win the AFC East is a buy.
- Raheem says Ben Johnson has Coach of the Year 'locked up' after the Bears routed the Jets with a backup QB. House doubles down with an exact-order NFC North bet: Bears, Vikings, Lions, Packers.
- Contrarian calls: Dabbundo says the 0–4 Texans can still get to about 10 wins and make the playoffs. Raheem notes the 0–4 Bucs rank among the best winless starts ever by DVOA. Dabbundo also names Dak Prescott his MVP through four weeks.
Segments
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00:00
Monday check-in
Dabbundo celebrates his Colts' ugly win over House's Commanders in London. Raheem marvels at CeeDee Lamb's huge day and points out that last year's elite defenses, Houston and Philadelphia, now sit 25th and 26th in EPA per play. House floats a working theory that 'figurehead' head coaches who don't call plays, like Harbaugh, Payton and Quinn, are struggling against play-calling innovators like Ben Johnson and Mike Macdonald.
00:03
Week 4 witching hour
The 4:25 window was a sweat. T.J. Hockenson went down short of the goal line to kill the clock, which cost Dabbundo's Vikings cover, though he defends the decision. The Chiefs–Raiders cover flipped back and forth after a failed two-point try and a fumbled kickoff, and the Chargers nearly pulled off a backdoor. Dabbundo also explains why he didn't want Detroit to kick a field goal even though he had their team total over 27.5. House calls the Chiefs a 'luck box' team with a gettable defense.
00:08
Best bets
Dabbundo's Rams bets (spread, moneyline, Eagles team total under) survived a lopsided game the Eagles nearly stole. He calls Philly's offense one of the league's five worst and doubts it gets fixed this year. Raheem's Bears −3.5 came from fading an overadjusted look-ahead line, and he crowns Ben Johnson for Coach of the Year (+900). House endorses the Bears, reveals an exact-order NFC North bet, and cashed Patriots +7 and the over 48.5 against a Bills defense he says can't get stops.
00:16
Bills in trouble? AFC East futures
Raheem argues Buffalo is in trouble as a Super Bowl contender. Dabbundo blames a weak back four and the loss of McDermott's secondary coaching, but still expects 11–12 wins. House asks whether the Patriots' +210 AFC East price will get better. Raheem walks through game-by-game win probabilities for both teams' upcoming schedules, and Tate notes the Patriots are −188 to make the playoffs.
00:21
Worst bets and the penalty rant
Dabbundo and Raheem both laid the Bills. Raheem says the line sitting at 6.5 all week should have warned him. House regrets the Jets, the Bengals and Arizona, then goes on a rant about the flood of penalties across Week 4. Raheem adds the Cowboys–Texans goal-line flags.
00:29
Bets they regret not making
Dabbundo liked but never bet Chiefs–Raiders over, citing a Chiefs pass rush that can't get home. Raheem regrets passing on the Giants after their line moved 10 points off the preseason look-ahead with only a QB change, and he and Tate debate how many points a quarterback is worth. House passed on the 49ers against sharp Denver money and instead chased Minnesota under 10.
00:34
Falcons–Saints preview (Raheem)
Raheem likes Atlanta +1.5 (his Ringer 107 pick at +2.5) because Bijan Robinson faces the league's worst rushing-success defense and the Falcons' pass rush should swamp Tyler Shough. His prop is Shough over 16.5 rushing yards. He sees the NFC South as a Panthers–Falcons race and notes the 0–4 Bucs are among the best winless teams ever by DVOA. Dabbundo boldly says the Texans will still make the playoffs. Before leaving, Raheem offers early Week 5 leans: Giants +3.5, Pittsburgh, and team-total unders on teams returning from London.
00:43
MLB playoffs check-in
Dabbundo's playoff-unders theory has held up in the division series, though he stopped betting it. He lost a Dodgers bet and thinks Milwaukee is better equipped to face the Dodgers this year. House wonders whether to hedge his roughly 12-to-1 Yankees–Brewers World Series future with the Yankees down a game to the Rays.
00:46
Monday night picks with Sal
Sal takes the over 47.5, arguing the Falcons' defense has feasted on weak offenses and Shough throws constantly. His prop is Juwan Johnson to record a 20+ yard catch. Dabbundo has a small play on the Atlanta moneyline and a Kyle Pitts +350 sprinkle against a Saints defense that struggles with tight ends. House independently lands on the over too, and Sal adds the second-half over 23.5. Talk turns to the Cowboys: Dabbundo calls Dak his MVP and had pushed Sal toward Dallas to win the NFC East, and Sal stands by his preseason call of a 9–8 division winner.
00:55
College football takeaways
Tate reviews Alabama's rout of Mississippi State, Missouri's win over Florida, North Carolina's cover at Notre Dame and Miami's beatdown of Clemson. Sal calls Alabama a playoff team and wouldn't bet its win-total under. He also uses his 'seesaw SEC' logic to back Texas A&M over Missouri, and floats Mario Mensah at 7-to-1 for the Heisman. Tate likes Alabama +900 for the title, but Dabbundo says to wait until Georgia beats them.
00:59
Plays of the day
House: the over 47.5 plus Bijan Robinson over 16.5 longest rush. Dabbundo: Rays +115 against Cam Schlittler. Sal: Gavin Williams under 7.5 strikeouts, because playoff managers pull starters early. Tate: Chris Olave anytime touchdown (+120) and the Saints to win. The show closes with arguments over Dan Campbell's and Hockenson's decisions, Carlie Irsay-Gordon on the Colts sideline, and jokes about Lions owner Sheila Ford Hamp.
Predictions on the record
Graded so far: 0–0 (—)
Transcripts don’t label speakers, so each take has a speaker confidence score for who said it (hover it for the reasoning). Each take also has a gradeability score: 100% means it can be cleanly confirmed or refuted, and 0% means pure opinion. Click a tier to filter.
- The Eagles' offense stays broken for the rest of the season
After calling the Eagles offense one of the five worst units in the NFL.
“And I don't think they're going to fix it this year.”
45%There is no timeframe problem, but 'fix it' needs an offensive efficiency stat as a proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Anthony Dabbundo)
- Ben Johnson wins NFL Coach of the Year
“he's got this thing locked up at this point in time”
95%The award winner is public record; it is only lightly hedged.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Raheem Palmer)
- The Bears are a serious NFC contender
“you got to be scared of the Bears and the NFC at this point”
30%"Scared of" is vague; a deep playoff run would be the only proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Raheem Palmer)
- Ben Johnson wins NFL Coach of the Year
“I like that nine to one for Ben Johnson.”
90%The award winner is public record; this is an endorsement of the 9-1 price rather than a stated bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
- The NFC North finishes Bears, Vikings, Lions, Packers
An exact-order NFC North bet he fired off during Lions-Panthers.
“I have the bears on top, the Vikings coming in second Detroit in third and green Bay and fourth.”
100%Final division standings settle the exact order.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
- The Bills fall short of a deep playoff run
He clarifies that he is holding Buffalo to a Super Bowl contender standard.
“I don't know how they're going to win in the postseason”
45%The claim is conditional and vague; it needs playoff results as a proxy for 'can't win'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Raheem Palmer)
- The AFC East race stays competitive between the Patriots and Bills
“people are saying that this division is over, but I'm not so sure that's the case.”
40%'Not over' has no clear test; the final standings margin is the proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Raheem Palmer)
- The Bills win 11 or 12 games
“they're still going to win 11 or 12 games”
95%The final win total settles it; the claim is a stated range.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Anthony Dabbundo)
Result: Currently 3–1, 1st in the AFC East, the AFC 3 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Patriots win the AFC East
Asking whether +210 for the Patriots to win the AFC East is the time to buy.
“I kind of like it man”
90%The division winner is black and white; this is a lean ('kind of like it') rather than a confirmed bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
Result: Currently 2–2, 2nd in the AFC East, the AFC 7 seed (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Patriots' AFC East odds shorten to about +160 if they win next week and pull level for the division lead
House asked whether the Patriots' +210 AFC East price will get better.
“It'll probably go to like plus 160 if things go well next week and they're tied atop the division.”
45%Conditional and approximate, and futures prices aren't easily archived.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Anthony Dabbundo)
- Bijan Robinson has a big rushing game against the Saints
“I expect them to do the same thing”
85%'Go off' is graded here as a big game: 75+ rushing yards.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Raheem Palmer)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Panthers or Falcons win the NFC South
“i think it's between the panthers and the flowers”
90%The division winner is on record, though the call names two teams.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Raheem Palmer)
- The Buccaneers start covering spreads again soon
The Bucs are one of the best 0-4 teams by DVOA and haven't covered in 14 straight.
“At some point the market has to catch up.”
40%There is no timeframe; ATS record is the proxy.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Raheem Palmer)
- The Texans make the playoffs
The Texans are 0-4.
“I think they're still going to make the playoffs.”
100%Final standings settle it.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the AFC South (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Texans get to about 10 wins
“i think they can still get to like 10 wins”
100%Settles automatically from the final regular-season standings
How it’s graded: The Houston Texans finish the 2026 regular season with 10 or more wins. Source: ESPN final regular-season standings (saved in data/standings.js). Settles: After the 2026 regular season ends (Week 18).
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Currently 0–4, 4th in the AFC South (as of 2026-10-05)
- The Texans-Titans line moves to Texans -7
The Texans are laying 6.5 against the Titans next week.
“I expect that number to go seven if it hasn't already.”
95%The ESPN closing line settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Raheem Palmer)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Giants cover +3.5 against Washington
Washington is coming back from London, possibly without Jayden Daniels.
“Giants plus three and a half take it down”
100%The game result settles the cover.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Raheem Palmer)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Steelers beat the Colts
The Colts are coming off a London game; the Steelers are off extended rest.
“I think you could probably take Pittsburgh off of the extended rest”
80%No line was given and he says 'probably'; graded here as a straight win.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Raheem Palmer)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Colts and Commanders go under their team totals after returning from London
“if you want to play those other teams on the team total under, I think you'll find yourself in a good spot as well”
70%Box scores settle it, but no totals were named and it is two games.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Raheem Palmer)
- The Brewers eliminate the Padres
“probably knocks the Padres out there with that win”
90%The series result is public record; the claim is hedged with 'probably'.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Yankees and Brewers meet in the World Series
A roughly 12-1 preseason future; the Yankees trail the Rays 1-0.
“I have a Yankees brewers future that I'm kind of holding on to”
85%The World Series matchup is public record; the exact ticket type is inferred.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- Falcons-Saints ends around 28-24
“we enjoy a 28, 24 fantasy feast”
60%The final score settles it, but the score is offered loosely as an illustration.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Falcons beat the Saints
A small moneyline bet he made on top of the Monday Night Football discussion.
“So Atlanta for me, I took a small play on the, on the money line, but nothing, nothing crazy that I'm like running to the window.”
100%Moneyline bet that settles on the Monday night result.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Anthony Dabbundo)
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- Falcons-Saints goes over 23.5 second-half points
“So yeah, I might blind bet that as well over 23”
90%Second-half scoring is in the box score; the bet is hedged with 'might'.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Dak Prescott wins NFL MVP
Talking up Dallas's offense; Sal calls it a pick he likes better than the Texans making the playoffs.
“that Prescott MVP for me through four weeks”
60%The MVP winner is public record, but "for me through four weeks" makes it a current ranking more than a firm call.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
- The Cowboys finish ahead of the Eagles in the NFC East
Asked which is likelier to get fixed: Philly's offense or Dallas's defense.
“I'm probably taking the defense.”
70%Standings settle it, but the take is framed as trusting a unit to improve.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Anthony Dabbundo)
- The Cowboys win the NFC East
“I said they would win the tiebreaker and I, I I'll stand by that”
100%The division winner is on record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
Result: Currently 2–2, 3rd in the NFC East (as of 2026-10-05)
- The NFC East winner finishes 9-8
“that division will be one at nine and eight”
95%The final standings show the winner's record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- The Cowboys' defense plays well over the next three games
Dallas faces Washington, Green Bay and Philadelphia in that stretch, three offenses he calls dead.
“the Cowboys defense is going to look great these next three weeks”
45%"Look great" needs a proxy such as points allowed over the next three games.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Joe House)
- Alabama makes the College Football Playoff
“They're a playoff team.”
95%The CFP field is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Alabama wins 11 or more games
Alabama's win total was 10.5 with the under at -142.
“I would not take that under.”
60%Win total 10.5 settles cleanly, but it's a lean against the under rather than a stated bet.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Texas A&M upsets Mizzou on the road this week
Sal's 'Seesaw SEC' theory.
“take Texas A &M to upset Mizzou on the road this week”
100%The game result settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Jeremiah Smith wins the Heisman
“I gave out him and Malachi Tony, who's 30 to one.”
95%The Heisman winner is public record.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Mensah wins the Heisman
“But Menza might be one you want to look at at seven to one.”
80%The winner is on record, but the call is hedged ('might be one you want to look at').
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Cousin Sal)
- Alabama wins the national championship
“Alabama plus 900 feels like something”
80%The champion is on record, but this is a soft suggestion at +900.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tate Frazier)
- Miami loses an ACC game this season
“And Miami, we've got to figure out what the game is That they trip up in the ACC”
85%Miami's ACC record settles it; the claim is based on a past pattern.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Tate Frazier)
- Georgia beats Alabama this week
“would wait until they lose to Georgia this week”
100%The game result settles it.
Who said it (95%): Recognized by voice on this line (Anthony Dabbundo)
- Bijan Robinson's longest rush goes over 16.5 yards
“My prop for that game is B. John Robinson over 16 and a half longest rush.”
100%The longest rush is listed in the public box score, and 17+ yards is a clear yes or no.
How it’s graded: Bijan Robinson's longest rush is 17+ yards in the first Falcons-Saints game played after Oct 5, 2026. Source: Official NFL box score (NFL.com or ESPN). Settles: Final whistle of that Falcons-Saints game.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Game isn’t final yet
- The Saints beat the Falcons
A lean on top of his Olave touchdown play.
“I think the saints are going to win this game too”
100%The game result settles it.
Who said it (100%): Reviewed and confirmed by an editor
Result: Game isn’t final yet
