NFL Week 4
Oct 1, 2026 – Oct 5, 2026. 15 games with takes, all final; 73 takes.
Standings
Everyone’s takes on this week’s games, most correct first; graded takes count as games finish. Click a column to sort.
 Bill Simmons | 8 | 6 | 0 | .571 | 4.3 | +343 |
 Sheil Kapadia | 4 | 3 | 0 | .571 | 4.2 | +148 |
 Anthony Dabbundo | 3 | 2 | 0 | .600 | 4.8 | +145 |
 Cousin Sal | 3 | 3 | 0 | .500 | 4.3 | +93 |
 Raheem Palmer | 3 | 3 | 0 | .500 | 5.9 | +165 |
 Joe House | 2 | 4 | 0 | .333 | 5.1 | +96 |
 Billy Gil | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 4.9 | +49 |
 Rich Hofmann | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 3.6 | +36 |
 Tom Pelissero | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 2.0 | +20 |
 Tate Frazier | 0 | 1 | 0 | .000 | 4.9 | 0 |
Games
Thursday, Oct 1 · 1 game
NFLFinal
Pittsburgh Steelers24
Cleveland Browns27Bill Simmons 1–0 1 take · all graded →
Sunday, Oct 4 · 13 games
NFLFinal
Indianapolis Colts30
Washington Commanders13Joe House 0–1 Cousin Sal 0–1 Raheem Palmer 0–2 6 takes · all graded →
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Los Angeles Rams24
Philadelphia Eagles20Sheil Kapadia 2–0 Bill Simmons 2–0 Rich Hofmann 1–0 16 takes · all graded →
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Green Bay Packers17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers14Bill Simmons 2–0 Sheil Kapadia 0–1 Joe House 0–1 7 takes · all graded →
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Tennessee Titans18
Baltimore Ravens24Sheil Kapadia 1–0 Cousin Sal 1–0 2 takes · all graded →
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Dallas Cowboys34
Houston Texans30Anthony Dabbundo 1–0 Sheil Kapadia 0–1 Bill Simmons 0–2 7 takes · all graded →
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Jacksonville Jaguars22
Cincinnati Bengals17Joe House 0–1 3 takes · all graded →
NFLFinal
New England Patriots29
Buffalo Bills26Bill Simmons 0–2 3 takes · all graded →
NFLFinal
Arizona Cardinals24
New York Giants36Raheem Palmer 1–0 Anthony Dabbundo 0–1 Bill Simmons 0–1 4 takes · all graded →
NFLFinal
New York Jets12
Chicago Bears23Raheem Palmer 1–0 2 takes · all graded →
NFLFinal
Miami Dolphins10
Minnesota Vikings15Sheil Kapadia 2–0 Tom Pelissero 1–0 3 takes · all graded →
NFLFinal
Kansas City Chiefs30
Las Vegas Raiders27Billy Gil 1–0 Bill Simmons 1–0 Joe House 0–1 5 takes · all graded →
NFLFinal
Los Angeles Chargers23
Seattle Seahawks30Cousin Sal 1–0 Bill Simmons 1–1 Joe House 0–1 8 takes · all graded →
NFLFinal
Detroit Lions26
Carolina Panthers32Bill Simmons 1–0 Sheil Kapadia 0–1 2 takes · all graded →
Monday, Oct 5 · 1 game
NFLFinal
Atlanta Falcons45
New Orleans Saints24Raheem Palmer 1–0 Joe House 1–0 Anthony Dabbundo 1–0 7 takes · all graded →
Episodes 8
Where this week’s takes were made, newest first, with how many of each episode’s takes are about this week’s games.
7 takes in Week 4Week 4 Recap and a Falcons-Saints Preview
Ringer Wise Guys · Oct 5, 2026
1 take in Week 4Injuries or Season From Hell? Rams-Eagles Takeaways
The Ringer's Philly Special · Oct 4, 2026
15 takes in Week 4Dallas Makes a Splash, Desperate Times for the Texans, and More Main Characters for Week 4
The Ringer NFL Show · Oct 2, 2026
22 takes in Week 4Hello Cleveland: Week 4 NFL Picks, NBA Award Leans, Raiders Realities, and Boston Despair
The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct 1, 2026
- 14 takes in Week 4
Eagles-Bears Recap, Early Week 4 Leans, and MLB Wild-Card Round
Ringer Wise Guys · Sep 29, 2026
- 12 takes in Week 4
Drake Mayday, a Raiders Revival, Bleakest 0-3 Teams, MLB Playoffs, and Guess the Lines With Cousin Sal
The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 27, 2026
- 1 take in Week 4
The Broken Chargers, Mahomes 3.0, Zombie Deshaun, the Masked Backup, First Coach Fired, and Guess the Lines
The Bill Simmons Podcast · Sep 21, 2026
- 1 take in Week 4
The Annual NFC Over/Unders
The Bill Simmons Podcast · Aug 27, 2026
Every take on this week’s games
- The Saints beat the Falcons
A lean on top of his Olave touchdown play.
“I think the saints are going to win this game too”
Lost by 21
- Bijan Robinson's longest rush goes over 16.5 yards
“My prop for that game is B. John Robinson over 16 and a half longest rush.”
Bijan Robinson: 59 longest rush
- Falcons-Saints might go over 23.5 second-half points.
“So yeah, I might blind bet that as well over 23”
Atlanta led 24-7 at halftime and won 45-24. That is 31 first-half points and 38 second-half points (21 by ATL, 17 by NO), well over 23.5.
- Source: NBC Sports ↗ Monday Night Football: Falcons run over Saints 45-24 to ruin New Orleans' celebration · Oct 6, 2026
- The Falcons beat the Saints
A small moneyline bet he made on top of the Monday Night Football discussion.
“So Atlanta for me, I took a small play on the, on the money line, but nothing, nothing crazy that I'm like running to the window.”
Won by 21
- Falcons-Saints probably goes over 47.5 total points.
“we enjoy a 28, 24 fantasy feast”
Falcons routed the Saints 45-24 on Oct 5, 2026. Atlanta won as implied and the over 47.5 cashed, but 45-24 (69 total points) is nowhere near the 28-24 score he gave, and it wasn't close.
- Source: CBS Sports ↗ Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Live Score and Stats - October 5, 2026 Gametracker · Oct 5, 2026
- The Colts and Commanders team total unders after London are probably a good spot.
“if you want to play those other teams on the team total under, I think you'll find yourself in a good spot as well”
Colts lost 34-22 at Pittsburgh on Oct 11, 2026 (over ~21.5). Commanders tied Giants 27-27 in OT on Oct 11 (over ~23 implied).
- Source: ESPN ↗ Giants 27-27 Commanders (Oct 11, 2026) Final Score · Oct 11, 2026
- Bijan Robinson probably has a big rushing game against the Saints.
“I expect them to do the same thing”
Bijan Robinson: 145 rushing yards
- The Eagles lose to the Rams.
Restating what he wrote down before kickoff.
“I think the Eagles are going to lose.”
Lost by 4
- The Dolphins might keep it close against the Vikings.
Discussing the Dolphins +16.5 teaser leg.
“And maybe that helps the dolphins keep it close shield.”
Minnesota beat Miami 15-10 on Oct 4, 2026, a 5-point margin. That covers the +16.5 teaser and the +10 closing spread, and Miami had a fourth-quarter chance to take the lead.
- Source: ESPN ↗ Vikings 15-10 Dolphins (Oct 4, 2026) Game Recap · Oct 4, 2026
- The Vikings probably don't score 35 points against the Dolphins.
Explaining the Dolphins +16.5 teaser leg.
“Vikings aren't looking to put up 35 points offensively.”
MIN scored 15
- 6-point teaser: Ravens −5.5 against the Titans and Dolphins +16.5 at the Vikings.
Ringer 107, Week 4, his 6-point teaser.
“We're teasing that down to five and a half.”
- 1BAL −5.5TEN18@BAL24· Final✅
- 2MIA +16.5MIA10@MIN15· Final✅
All 2 legs came true
- 1BAL −5.5
- The Packers cover −3.5 at the Buccaneers.
Ringer 107, Week 4 pick.
“I like the Packers minus three and a half in this game.”
Won by 3
- The Lions cover −3.5 at the Panthers.
Ringer 107, Week 4 pick.
“I'm taking the Detroit Lions, minus three and a half.”
Lost by 6
- The Rams beat the Eagles and don't fall to 1–3.
Explaining his Rams −3 pick.
“I don't think the Rams are going to fall to 1 -3.”
Won by 4
- The Rams cover −3 at the Eagles.
Ringer 107, Week 4 pick.
“But we're taking the Los Angeles Rams.”
Won by 4
- The Chiefs might not beat the Raiders easily.
After saying conventional wisdom has the Chiefs winning easily.
“I don't know that that's what's going to happen.”
On Oct 4, 2026 the Chiefs beat the Raiders 30-27, a 3-point margin. Las Vegas led 19-17 late in the fourth quarter, and the Raiders had a final possession with a chance to change the result.
- Source: ESPN ↗ Chiefs 30-27 Raiders (Oct 4, 2026) Game Recap · Oct 4, 2026
- The Texans have a good chance to beat the Cowboys.
“I think they have a good chance to win this game.”
Lost by 4
- The Lions–Panthers game might go over with both secondaries banged up.
A teaser idea he looked at but didn't play.
“being able to tease that down to 41 and a half on a Monday night”
58 total points
- The Chiefs cover −4.5 against the Raiders.
Ringer 107, Week 4 pick.
“Going to go ahead and lay the four and a half with Kansas City.”
Won by 3
- Jalen Daniels runs for more than 34.5 yards against the Packers.
“I have him over 34 and a half rushing yards.”
Jalen Daniels: 0 rushing yards
- Tampa Bay can cover 3.5 against Green Bay and maybe even win.
“I am going to take the Tampa Bay Bucks yet again, plus three and a half against Green Bay.”
Lost by 3
- The Buccaneers cover +3.5 against the Packers.
Ringer 107, Week 4 pick.
“going to take the Tampa Bay Bucks yet”
Lost by 3
- 6-point teaser: Seahawks −1 against the Chargers and Commanders +9.5 against the Colts.
Ringer 107, Week 4, his 6-point teaser.
“No, I'm going to back Washington getting nine and a half.”
- 1SEA −1LAC23@SEA30· Final✅
- 2WSH +9.5IND30@WSH13· Final❌
Leg 2 of 2 missed: Lost by 17
- 1SEA −1
- Patriots lose to Buffalo
“I think they're supposed to lose this game and I think they will”
Won by 3
- 6-point teaser: Seahawks −1 against the Chargers and Bills −1 against the Patriots.
Ringer 107, Week 4, his 6-point teaser.
“And sadly, I am teasing them with the Buffalo Bills down to minus one against the New England Patriots.”
- 1SEA −1LAC23@SEA30· Final✅
- 2BUF −1NE29@BUF26· Final❌
Leg 2 of 2 missed: Lost by 3
- 1SEA −1
- The Bengals cover −2.5 against the Jaguars.
Ringer 107, Week 4 pick.
“i'm gonna go ahead and take cincinnati at home laying only the two and a half against jacksonville”
Lost by 5
- The Rams cover −3 against the Eagles.
Ringer 107, Week 4 pick.
“So that was my second pick. Rams minus three.”
Won by 4
- The Rams beat the Eagles.
“Rams would be 1 -3 if they lost this game. That seems inconceivable.”
Won by 4
- The Rams cover −3 against the Eagles.
Ringer 107, Week 4 pick.
“I have no problem whatsoever laying the three with the LA Rams going into Philadelphia”
Won by 4
- The Texans beat the Cowboys.
Arguing the Texans won't start 0–4.
“with the amount of talent that they have And just because Nico Collins got hurt for two games, I can't buy it”
Lost by 4
- The Texans cover −3 against the Cowboys.
Ringer 107, Week 4 pick.
“So anyway, Texans minus three is my first one.”
Lost by 4
- Colts–Commanders might be a shootout.
“it just feels like this has shootout written all of it all over it”
Colts beat Commanders 30-13 in London on Oct 4, 2026, for 43 total points, under the 47 line. Mariota's injury and the Colts' run game made it a low-scoring game, not a shootout.
- Source: ESPN ↗ Colts 30-13 Commanders: NFL London begins with key injuries, offensive struggles at Tottenham's home · Oct 4, 2026
- The Commanders cover +3.5 against the Colts
“Commanders plus three and a half.”
Lost by 17
- The Bears cover −3 against the Jets
“I feel like I gotta make a preemptive move on Chicago.”
Won by 11
- The Rams cover −2.5 against the Eagles
“I think two and a half's left on the LA Rams this week is, is a bet for me”
On Oct 4, 2026 the Rams beat the Eagles 24-20 in Philadelphia, a 4-point margin. That covers −2.5. They rallied from a 20-10 deficit in the fourth quarter.
- Source: ESPN ↗ Rams 24-20 Eagles (Oct 4, 2026) Final Score - ESPN · Oct 4, 2026
- Seahawks–Chargers might go under the total.
“I agree with Raheem.”
53 total points
- Seahawks–Chargers goes under 43.5
“I'm going to go with the Seattle Seahawks chargers under 43 and a half”
Seahawks beat the Chargers 30-23 on Oct 4, 2026, for 53 total points, well over the 43.5 total.
- Source: ESPN ↗ Seahawks 30-23 Chargers (Oct 4, 2026) Game Recap - ESPN · Oct 4, 2026
- Cardinals–Giants might go over 43.5 if the weather holds.
“i think you might need to jump on that over”
Giants beat the Cardinals 36-24 on Oct 4, 2026 at MetLife Stadium, for 60 combined points. That is well over 43.5, and the game ended on a pick-six.
- Source: Yahoo Sports (Cardinals Wire) ↗ Giants 36, Cardinals 24: Live coverage in Week 4 loss · Oct 4, 2026
- The Cardinals beat the Giants
“Uh, I like the Cardinals.”
Lost by 12
- Cowboys–Texans is probably a lot of fun.
He said he won't be betting the Houston under because Dallas has defensive injuries.
“So I think that game is going to be a lot of fun on Sunday”
Dallas beat Houston 34-30 on Oct. 4, 2026 (64 total points) with a late Lamb touchdown (17 catches, 189 yards). Both offenses produced, as Dabbundo expected, and the game went well over any plausible total.
- Source: Yahoo Sports ↗ Cowboys surge in 2nd half for 34-30 win in Wk 4, Lamb dominates Texans · Oct 4, 2026
- The Seahawks beat the Chargers.
Floated as a teaser leg.
“The Seahawks are going to win.”
Won by 7
- The Ravens beat the Titans.
The line was Ravens −11.5; floated as a teaser leg.
“So, the Ravens are going to win.”
Won by 6
- The Cardinals cover +1.5 against the Giants.
Leaning toward this as his Ringer 107 pick; the line is Giants −1.5.
“I like the cards.”
Lost by 12
- The Raiders might beat the Chiefs outright.
Chiefs −4.5 at the Raiders.
“I'm going to just bet the money line.”
Lost by 3
- The Raiders are a live underdog against the Chiefs.
“Raiders are a live dog in that game.”
On Oct 4, 2026 the Chiefs beat the Raiders 30-27, with Las Vegas covering +3.5 and getting the ball back at midfield after a TD with 1:46 left. A close game, though the Raiders did not win outright.
- Source: ESPN ↗ Chiefs 30-27 Raiders (Oct 4, 2026) Game Recap · Oct 4, 2026
- The Browns beat the Steelers (moneyline bet).
Thursday night, Steelers at Browns.
“I'm betting the Browns money line”
Won by 3
- The Seahawks beat the Chargers.
“And I don't think they're losing two games in a row.”
Won by 7
- The Saints beat the Falcons in Week 4.
“They're not losing that.”
Lost by 21
