The Bill Simmons PodcastThe Annual NFC Over/Unders
Standings
How each person’s takes from this episode have turned out. Click a column to sort.
 Bill Simmons | 1 | 4 | 30 | .200 | 5.7 | +30 |
 Joe House | 0 | 0 | 12 | — | 6.3 | 0 |
 Cousin Sal | 0 | 2 | 20 | .000 | 6.2 | 0 |
- The Eagles go over 10.5 wins.
Eagles win total 10.5; he has them 11–6.
“Sal, I have them over.”
- The Eagles go under 10.5 wins, finishing 9–8.
Eagles win total 10.5; he also mentions the alt under 9.5 at +125.
“Yeah, I think they're nine and eight.”
- This is almost definitely Lane Johnson's last NFL season.
“This is almost definitely Lane Johnson's last year.”
- The Cowboys make the playoffs.
Dallas at −120 to make the playoffs.
“minus 120 for the playoffs which i think is one of the single best bets”
- The Cowboys go over 9.5 wins (lock).
His first lock; he has them 11–6 or 12–5.
“This is my first lock over nine and a half Dallas lock.”
- The Cowboys go under 9.5 wins.
Cowboys win total 9.5; he has them 9–8.
“Unfortunately, that's an under.”
- The Commanders go over 7.5 wins (8 wins).
Commanders win total 7.5.
“So I got them at eight.”
- The Commanders go under 7.5 wins (lock).
His second lock.
“Not only do I have them under seven and a half, it's a lock for me.”
- Dan Quinn might be the first NFL head coach fired.
A first-coach-fired lean.
“I was circling the Dan Quinn first coach fired.”
- The Giants go under 7.5 wins (lock).
Giants win total 7.5; his first lock.
“under for me… Lock me in for this.”
- The Giants go under 7.5 wins, finishing 5–12.
“Rough. 5 -12.”
- The Cowboys win the NFC East.
Sal has the Cowboys and Eagles both at 9–8 and takes Dallas because of its better odds.
“Cowboys have, better plus number to win the division”
- This is John Harbaugh's last season coaching the Giants.
“This is it for Harbaugh.”
- The Eagles go over 10.5 wins.
Eagles win total 10.5.
“I'm on Eagles overs and all the rest of it.”
- The Eagles win the NFC East.
“But it's an Eagles division.”
- The Cowboys win exactly nine games, under 9.5.
“I have them at exactly nine wins because of the question marks with whether or not that defense really will translate.”
- The Cowboys probably win the NFC East.
He has Dallas and Philadelphia both 11–6; Dallas is +175 for the division.
“I guess I have to stick with Dallas for the division.”
- The Lions go over 10.5 wins (11–6).
Lions win total 10.5.
“I'm a slight over. I'm 11 and six.”
- The Lions go under 10.5 wins (10–7).
Lions win total 10.5.
“10 and 7 for me.”
- The Lions go over 10.5 wins.
Lions win total 10.5.
“I'm very pro on Detroit.”
- The Packers go under 9.5 wins (9–8).
Packers win total 9.5.
“I'm under. I'm 9 -8.”
- The Packers go over 9.5 wins (11–6).
Packers win total 9.5.
“I have them at 11 -6.”
- The Packers win both of their first two games, at Minnesota and at the Jets.
Bill floats a Packers 0–2 start (at Vikings, at Jets).
“I'll have them win both those games.”
Packers lost at Minnesota 39-22 on Sept 13, 2026, so the sweep failed. They beat the Jets 20-17 in OT on Sept 20 to reach 1-1.
- Source: ESPN ↗ Vikings 39-22 Packers (Sep 13, 2026) Final Score - ESPN · Sep 13, 2026
- The Bears go over 9.5 wins (10–7).
Bears win total 9.5.
“I think they go 10 and 7”
- The Bears win exactly 9 games: over 8.5 but under 9.5.
Bears win total 9.5; he says he has them 9–8.
“I got over an 8.5 but under 9.5 for the Bears.”
- The Bears start 2–0 (at Carolina, vs. Minnesota).
“At Panthers week one, home Vikings week two, I think they're 2 -0 after that.”
Bears beat Carolina 59-37 on Sept 13 but lost 9-3 to Minnesota at home on Sept 20, falling to 1-1. They did not start 2-0.
- Source: ESPN ↗ Vikings 9-3 Bears (Sep 20, 2026) Final Score - ESPN · Sep 20, 2026
- The Vikings go under 8.5 wins.
Vikings win total 8.5.
“So I'm under.”
- The Vikings go under 8.5 wins (7 wins).
Vikings win total 8.5.
“I have them at seven.”
- The Packers win the NFC North.
“Green Bay Packers, 11 -6.”
- The Lions win the NFC North.
Picking the NFC North winner.
“I have the Lions at 11 -6.”
- The Saints go under 7.5 wins (7–10).
Saints win total 7.5; he has all four NFC South teams at 7–10.
“I have all four teams at seven and ten.”
- The Buccaneers go under 8.5 wins (7 wins).
Bucs win total 8.5; he has every NFC South team at 7–10.
“They're favored in nine games, but I still give them seven wins.”
- The Buccaneers go over 8.5 wins (lock), possibly 11–6.
Bucs win total 8.5; he makes it a lock.
“I think they can go 11 and 6”
- The Buccaneers beat the Browns in Week 2.
“That's a win.”
Browns beat the Buccaneers 23-19 on Sept 20, 2026 in Tampa, after a 132-minute lightning delay. Tampa fell to 0-2.
- Source: ESPN ↗ Browns 23-19 Buccaneers (Sep 20, 2026) Final Score - ESPN · Sep 20, 2026
- The Saints start 0–2 (at Detroit, at Baltimore).
“So they're going to be 0 -2.”
Saints lost 31-30 in OT at Detroit on Sep 13, but beat the Ravens 24-17 in Baltimore on Sep 20 to start 1-1, not 0-2.
- Source: ESPN ↗ Saints 24-17 Ravens (Sep 20, 2026) Final Score - ESPN · Sep 20, 2026
- The Saints beat the Falcons in Week 4.
“They're not losing that.”
Lost by 21
- The Saints go under 7.5 wins (7–10).
Saints win total 7.5; he went under, then over, then back under.
“I have them at 7 wins exactly, 7 and 10.”
- The Saints go under 7.5 wins (7–10).
Saints win total 7.5.
“I'm under I like them at 7 and 10”
- The Falcons go under 7.5 wins (lock), finishing 4–13.
Falcons win total 7.5; he calls it his biggest lock.
“This is, I have them going 4 -13 this year.”
- The Steelers probably beat the Falcons in Week 1.
“I'm betting the Steelers now.”
Pittsburgh beat Atlanta 20-13 on Sept 13, 2026 at Acrisure Stadium, with a late T.J. Watt pick-six deciding it. Simmons's pick on the Steelers was correct.
- Source: ESPN ↗ Steelers 20-13 Falcons (Sep 13, 2026) Final Score - ESPN · Sep 13, 2026
- The Falcons go under 7.5 wins.
Falcons win total 7.5.
“So I'll go under.”
- The Panthers go over 6.5 wins (7–10).
Panthers win total 6.5.
“had them at 7 and 10 as well because”
- The Buccaneers win the NFC South and the Falcons finish last.
Recommending a FanDuel NFC South exact-order bet, both ways for the middle two.
“Tampa first. Atlanta last.”
- The Saints win the NFC South.
His worst-to-first pick in an NFC South he has at 7–10 across the board.
“I'll take New Orleans to win the division.”
- The Buccaneers win the NFC South easily.
“And I think they win this easily”
- Caleb Williams throws for more than 3,575.5 yards.
Caleb Williams over 3,575.5 passing yards.
“couldn't recommend that more”
- The Buccaneers make the playoffs.
Recommending make-the-playoffs bets after Dallas.
“but I would also do Tampa”
- The Rams go under 11.5 wins.
Rams win total 11.5; he likes the +125 under.
“I couldn't get to 12 wins with them.”
- The Rams go over 11.5 wins (13–4).
Rams win total 11.5.
“I got them at 13 and four.”
- The Rams make the playoffs.
“I still have them in the playoffs.”
Eagles
Cowboys
Commanders
Giants
Lions
Packers
Vikings
Jets
Bears
Panthers
Saints
Buccaneers
CLE
Ravens
ATL
PIT
Rams
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