The Bill Simmons PodcastThe Annual AFC Over/Unders
Standings
How each person’s takes from this episode have turned out. Click a column to sort.
 Bill Simmons | 1 | 4 | 32 | .200 | 5.4 | +52 |
 Joe House | 0 | 0 | 10 | — | 5.8 | 0 |
 Cousin Sal | 0 | 2 | 19 | .000 | 4.8 | 0 |
- The Falcons go under 7.5 wins.
Restated from the NFC over/unders episode.
“like Atlanta under seven and a half”
- The Buccaneers go over 8.5 wins.
Restated from the NFC over/unders episode.
“Tampa over eight and a half”
- The Cowboys go over their win total.
Restated from the NFC over/unders episode.
“Dallas over”
- The Seahawks go over their win total.
Restated from the NFC over/unders episode.
“Seattle over”
- The Commanders go under their win total.
Restated from the NFC over/unders episode.
“Washington under.”
- The Bills win 11 games, over 10.5.
Bills win total 10.5.
“I gave them 11 wins.”
- The Texans beat the Bills in Week 1.
“So four days later after Houston kicks the shit out of them.”
Lost by 5
- The Bills go under 10.5 wins (10 wins).
Bills win total 10.5; he said it's not a lock.
“I'm a slight under. I'm 10.”
- The Patriots go over 10.5 wins (11 wins).
Patriots win total 10.5; he said it's not a lock.
“Anyway, I'm going over 11 wins for the Patriots.”
- The Patriots go under 10.5 wins (10 wins).
Patriots win total 10.5.
“I'm going under 10 and a half to 10.”
- The Jets go 7–10, over 5.5 wins.
Jets win total 5.5.
“right now I have them at seven and ten”
- The Jets probably beat the Titans in Week 1.
About the Week 1 Titans–Jets opener.
“I actually think they'll probably beat the”
Won by 13
- The Dolphins win three games or fewer, under 3.5.
Dolphins win total 3.5.
“very surprised if this team had more than three”
- The Dolphins and Cardinals finish with the two worst records, fighting for the No. 1 pick.
“I think it's a battle to the grave with the Cardinals for that first pick.”
- The Dolphins probably don't go over 3.5 wins.
Dolphins win total 3.5; he had floated going over (4–13) first.
“I think if you're going to go over with the Jets, you're not allowed to also go over with the dolphins.”
- The Bills win at least 11 games if Josh Allen plays.
“then the Buffalo Bills are going to win 11 games”
- The Bills win the AFC East.
“so you have buffalo for the division too i do yeah”
- The Jets go over their win total.
“jets over yeah the jets have eight new starters on defense”
- The Patriots win the AFC East, with the Bills second.
“I have New England, Buffalo.”
- The Bills win the AFC East, with the Patriots second.
“You have Buffalo, New England.”
- The Ravens go at least 5–2 in their first seven games.
“Should be 5 -2 minimum”
Ravens started 4-1 but lost at Cleveland (10-13, Oct 18) and to Cincinnati (13-35, Oct 25), finishing the first seven games 4-3, short of 5-2. They also lost to the Saints in Week 2.
- Source: Pro Football Reference ↗ 2026 Baltimore Ravens Rosters, Stats, Schedule, Team Draftees, Injury Reports
- The Ravens go 12–5, over 10.5 wins.
Ravens win total 10.5; one of his AFC locks.
“12 and five. I'm way over.”
- The Ravens win 10 games, under 10.5.
Ravens win total 10.5.
“I'm locked into 10.”
- Zac Taylor is out as Bengals coach if Cincinnati misses the playoffs.
“There's no way he comes back if they don't make it.”
- The Bengals go over 10.5 wins.
Bengals win total 10.5.
“I'd go over 10.5 at plus 105”
- The Bengals go under 10.5 wins (10 wins).
Bengals win total 10.5.
“10 wins seems, the under seems safe”
- The Steelers go 8–9, under 8.5 wins.
Steelers win total 8.5.
“when they officially go 8 -9 because that's where I have them here”
- The Steelers go 10–7, over 8.5 wins.
Steelers win total 8.5.
“I just feel like this is 10 and 7”
- The Steelers go 4–1 in their first five games.
“I genuinely think that's 4 -1.”
Steelers beat Atlanta 20-13 in Week 1, lost at New England 20-3 (Sept. 20), lost to Cleveland in Week 4, and beat Indianapolis 34-22 on Oct. 11 to go 3-2 after five games.
- Source: Pittsburgh Steelers (steelers.com) ↗ Steelers 2026 Schedule
- The Steelers make the playoffs and the Bengals don't.
“I think they're going to get the playoff spot, not the Bengals.”
- The Steelers go no further than last year's wild-card exit.
“The funny thing is they're going to get as far as they did.”
- The Steelers don't win a playoff game.
“they're winning a playoff round”
- The Browns go 5–12, under 5.5 wins.
Browns win total 5.5.
“I'm a slight under. I'm 5 -12.”
- The Ravens win 10 games, under 10.5.
Ravens win total 10.5.
“So 10 wins for Baltimore is good.”
- The Bengals win about 11 games, over 10.5.
Bengals win total 10.5.
“So I have Cincinnati at like 11 wins”
- The Browns finish last in the AFC North.
“And then Browns in last.”
- A.J. Brown goes over his receiving touchdown prop.
“I'd probably do the touchdowns for A.J. Brown.”
- The Texans win the AFC South.
Texans +120 to win the AFC South.
“Sign me up for that”
- The Texans make the playoffs.
Texans −176 to make the playoffs.
“Throw that in any parlay.”
- The Texans go over 9.5 wins.
Texans win total 9.5; one of his two AFC locks.
“It's an over. It's a lock”
- The Texans go 12–5, over 9.5 wins.
Texans win total 9.5.
“12 -5 is the same I have.”
- The Jaguars win 10 games, over 8.5.
Jaguars win total 8.5.
“Yeah, I'm going 10 wins.”
- The Jaguars go 8–9, under 8.5 wins.
Jaguars win total 8.5.
“I have them at 8 and 9.”
- The Jaguars win both London games.
“But I have them winning both London games.”
- The Texans probably sweep the Jaguars.
“So I had them getting swept by the Texans”
- The Colts go 6–11, under 8.5 wins.
Colts win total 8.5; his lock, 6–11.
“This is my lock under.”
- The Colts start 0–3.
The Colts open vs. Ravens, at Chiefs, and vs. Texans.
“Yeah, that's 0 -3.”
Colts lost Week 1 to the Ravens 41-23 and Week 2 at KC 33-30 in OT. They beat Houston 19-17 on Sep 27 on a last-second Shrader field goal, so they were 1-2 after three games, not 0-3.
- Source: ESPN ↗ Colts 19-17 Texans (Sep 27, 2026) Final Score - ESPN · Sep 27, 2026
- The Titans win 8 games, over 5.5.
Titans win total 5.5.
“I did put them at eight wins.”
- The Titans go 5–12, under 5.5 wins.
Titans win total 5.5.
“i'm going five and 12 under”
- The Texans win 12 or more games.
He bet the alternate 12-win total.
“I'm all the way up at 12 wins, the alt -win total for Houston.”
Falcons
Buccaneers
Cowboys
Seahawks
Commanders
Bills
HOU
Patriots
Jets
TEN
Dolphins
Cardinals
Ravens
Bengals
Steelers
Browns
Jaguars
Colts
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